⚾ Marlins vs. Mets Win Probability: Who Will Win Today’s MLB Game? (May 29)
The Mets boast plenty of talent, and yet they're 10 games below .500 and have lost five of their last six contests, including a sweep at the hands of the Miami Marlins.
The Mets scored a measly two runs throughout that series, and they get a shot at redemption beginning tonight when another series of the same length starts, this time at Citi Field, with the first pitch flying at 7:10 p.m. ET (ESPN).
Miami is the slight favorite in the Marlins vs. Mets win probability from the prediction market apps, and that aligns as expected with the pitching edge Miami holds.
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🏆 Who will win Marlins vs. Mets? Live MLB win probability
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The presence of Max Meyer alone on the mound for Miami makes the win probability far closer than you'd expect considering the talent gap between the teams, even if the Mets are struggling significantly.
The Mets maintain the narrowest edge while getting a 51% win probability, a gap that's been tightening due to both the impressive Meyer, and the Mets' still bumbling offense.
New York is fresh off averaging just 1.2 runs per outing during a five-game losing streak. Juan Soto keeps crushing everything in sight, but Bo Bichette remains a debacle early in his Mets tenure while sporting a .592 OPS.
That scuffling will surely continue against Meyer, who throws a slider and sweeper as his top two pitches, and those offerings come with a .321 and .213 slugging percentage, respectively, according to Baseball Savant.
The Mets counter with Freddy Peralta, whose walk rate has risen alarmingly amid a battle with control problems. Peralta's BB/9 sits at 4.0 after finishing at 3.4 last year, and his K/9 has fallen from 10.4 to 9.2.
My prediction: Marlins win. Meyer endured a little speed wobble while giving up four earned runs to the Twins on May 13. But even including that outlier, he's allowed two earned runs or fewer in six of his last seven starts, with four shutouts.
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💣 Who will hit a home run in Marlins vs. Mets?
Soto is the only player featured in this market, which seems bizarre until you remember what there is to assess power-wise between these two teams. And it's not much.
The Mets sit 22nd leaguewide with 50 homers. That's not what you want, especially with Soto getting so very little support. His 12 dingers account for 24% of the team's long balls, a figure that gets even sadder when factoring in that Soto went through an IL stint. The continued absence of Francisco Lindor isn't helping matters either.
The Marlins are even worse while sitting in 27th on 45 homers. They're a team that generates offense through contact and speed, and five Marlins regulars are posting a hard-hit rate under 40%.
My prediction: Juan Soto to hit a home run. Soto is a nearly unmatched source of power, with the league's highest barrels per plate appearance (13.8). For more home run analysis, see the rest of my home run predictions today.
⚾ Will there be a run in the first inning of Marlins vs. Mets?
The probability of a first-inning run started low before diving to even deeper depths.
There was a 46% probability yesterday, and that plunged to 43% early this morning before rebounding a smidge to 44%.
The Mets sit 10th in the NRFI standings due to a combination of just not scoring much period while sitting 26th in offense, and a pitching staff that suppresses power and allows MLB's third-fewest home runs.
Meanwhile, Meyer has given up only six earned runs across his last 35 2/3 innings.
My prediction: No run in the first inning. Soto is the only real clear danger here if he goes deep early, but Meyer sports an HR/9 of just 0.6. For more first-inning analysis, see the rest of our best NRFI bets today from our MLB expert Dustin Saracini.
📊 Marlins vs. Mets win expectancy
Win expectancy based on Kalshi percentages at time of publish.
| Team | Win expectancy | Opened | Movement |
|---|---|---|---|
| Marlins | 49% | 48% | ↓ 1% |
| Mets | 51% | 52% | ↑ 1% |
📺 How to watch Marlins vs. Mets
- Date: Friday, May 29
- First pitch: 7:10 p.m. ET
- Ballpark: Citi Field (New York)
- TV: ESPN
- Streaming: MLB.TV
- Marlins starter: Max Meyer (5-0, 2.52 ERA)
- Mets starter: Freddy Peralta (3-4, 3.52 ERA)
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