⚾ Twins vs. Pirates Prediction & Picks: MLB Odds for Friday, May 29

The Minnesota Twins and Pittsburgh Pirates begin an interesting interleague series between two surprising teams. First pitch from PNC Park in Pittsburgh is set for 6:40 p.m. ET (Apple TV), and features Taj Bradley and Jared Jones (who is making his season debut) as the starting pitching matchup. The Pirates are -135 betting favorites.

My Twins vs. Pirates prediction backs Minnesota as road underdogs behind a strong pitching performance from Taj Bradley. I still expect Konnor Griffin to fill up the stat sheet for Pittsburgh, but it’s a Minnesota slugger I’m backing to go deep with the last of my MLB picks.

⚾ Twins vs. Pirates predictions & odds today

See all of our experts’ MLB picks based on the latest MLB odds; picks rated on a 1-to-5 star confidence scale based on betting value.

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🏆 Who will win Twins vs. Pirates?

Minnesota was 4-1 in its last five series before losing three out of four to the White Sox, and I expect it to resume that momentum with a win in this series opener.

Score prediction: Twins 5, Pirates 4

💰 Twins vs. Pirates prediction & best bet

Twins ML (+119)

Pittsburgh averaged 2.1 more runs per game, belted 19 more home runs, and had a team OPS 109 points higher through 50 games this season than it did at the 50-game mark last year. But is that sustainable?

Taj Bradley did not look bothered by a right pectoralis injury that forced him to miss two weeks in May, as his fastball topped out at 100.3 mph in his first start back last weekend. The fastball has been his key to success, throwing it 47% of the time, while it ranks in the 93rd percentile in run value.

🔥 Best Twins vs. Pirates player prop bet

Konnor Griffin Over 1.5 hits + runs + RBI (+115)

After Konor Griffin floated between five different spots in the lineup since his call-up, he batted leadoff earlier this week for the first time, making him the youngest leadoff hitter for the Pirates since 1952.

Griffin was rewarded for his hot stretch at the plate. After slashing .182/.247/.242 with zero home runs over his first 19 games, he heated up for a .344/.390/.521 slash line and three home runs over his next 25. In that 25-game span, he had the sixth-best average in the majors (min. 80 PA), and was one of six players with at least 10 extra-base hits and five stolen bases in that span dating back to April 24. 

With Griffin batting atop the lineup, that increases his chances to score runs, especially with his 98th percentile sprint speed and baserunning run value.

💣 Twins vs. Pirates home run prediction

Josh Bell to hit a home run (+550)

Josh Bell snapped an eight-game drought without an extra-base hit in yesterday's series finale against the White Sox, and I expect him to carry that momentum into this matchup.

I’m looking for positive regression for Bell, who is on pace for a career worst batting average slugging percentage, and OPS. 

Bell’s 73 OPS+ is a far cry from the 100 or more he has posted each of the last five full seasons. He is still above average in barrels, hard-hit rate, and launch angle sweet spot percentage. A matchup with Jones in his first start in two years isn't the worst, as he ranked in the 30th percentile in ground ball rate, 14th percentile in barrels, and eighth percentile in hard-hit rate in 2024.

🚀 Twins vs. Pirates same-game parlay

Although I am taking a risk backing a big day from the rookie Griffin, I do not necessarily believe that impacts Minnesota's chances of winning outright. But I'm further supporting that pick with Bell to drive in a run (swapping out the home run pick), as he looks to snap a five-game RBI drought.

💵 My betting record for MLB picks

All MLB picks, including SGPs, have been tracked since March 26.

💡 How I'm betting Twins vs. Pirates: MLB strategy

Follow all of our MLB analysis and expert predictions for baseball season.

With Jared Jones making his first start of the season and likely being on a pitch count, I find value in the Twins moneyline, as Taj Bradley has made five quality starts in his last eight appearances. But since both starting pitchers are capable of matching zeros early, I wouldn't put anyone off backing the first five innings Under 4.5 (-130, 56.52% implied odds) instead of taking a moneyline side.

📊 Live Twins vs. Pirates odds

With the near dead-even betting splits (52/48 in favor of Pittsburgh) and the late news that Jones would be making his season debut, there was not much movement in the odds overnight as of Friday morning. However, the total has moved from an opening number of 8.5 down to 8 at several top sports betting sites with the Under attracting 60% of the wagers, which suggests some sharp action accounts for some of the early action.

📈 Twins vs. Pirates betting trends

🚑 Twins vs. Pirates injuries

📺 How to watch Twins vs. Pirates

• Date: Friday, May 29
• First pitch: 6:40 p.m. ET
• Ballpark: PNC Park (Pittsburgh, Pa.)
• Streaming: Apple TV
• Twins starter: Taj Bradley (5-1, 2.77 ERA)
• Pirates starter: Jared Jones (0-0, 0.00 ERA)