⚾ Best Home Run Predictions Today: MLB Odds & HR Picks for Sunday, May 10
Several of MLB’s top sluggers went yard in Friday’s series openers, and my home run predictions today double down on some expecting them to stay hot.
Munetaka Murakami made history on Friday, becoming the first to homer in eight consecutive series openers. I’m backing him to stay hot since he has been hitting home runs in bunches, as has Kyle Schwarber, who is climbing up the Phillies franchise home run leaderboard. I add two value plays to round out my four-pack of MLB home run picks.
⚾ Best home run predictions today: MLB picks & odds May 9
See all of our experts’ MLB picks based on the latest MLB odds.
| 💣 Home run pick | 💵 Units | 📝 Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Kyle Schwarber to hit a home run (+235 via FanDuel) | 0.25u → 0.59u | The Rockies have allowed the second-most home runs over the last two weeks |
| Yordan Alvarez to hit a home run (+248 via DraftKings) | 0.25u → 0.62u | There is no hitter better in lefty-lefty splits than Alvarez |
| Munetaka Murakami to hit a home run (+300 via bet365) | 0.25u → 0.75u | It's either home runs or singles for Murakami, so I'm banking on another long ball |
| Joc Pederson to hit a home run (+528 via DraftKings) | 0.25u → 1.32u | No pitcher has been worse at keeping the ball in the ballpark than Jameson Taillon |
Total wagered: 1.0 units | Max profit: 3.28 units
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💣 Best home run prediction today
Kyle Schwarber to hit a home run (+235)
Kyle Schwarber’s sixth-inning solo blast on Friday was his 200th career home run with the Phillies. That came in his 666th career game, making him the fourth-fastest player to reach 200 home runs with a team.
Following a 3-0 shutout win over the Mets on April 26 up to yesterday, Colorado’s pitching staff had allowed 17 home runs (tied for the second-most), with the fourth-highest HR/FB rate (14.2%). Schwarber gets a tasty matchup against Tomoyuki Sugano, who allowed 33 home runs and a .799 opponents’ OPS as a member of the Orioles last season.
📡 SBR Edge: Home run-happy Sugano
Among the 70 pitchers who threw a minimum of 150 innings last year, Tomoyuki Sugano's 1.89 HR/9 rate was the second-worst.
🔥 More home run picks today
Yordan Alvarez to hit a home run (+248)
Yordan Alvarez entered this series mired in a 3-for-23 slump with zero extra-base hits over a six-game span. But he broke out of that with a 2-for-4 day and a home run off Reds southpaw Nick Lodolo, and he now gets another friendly matchup against a struggling southpaw in Andrew Abbott.
Abbott has horrible reverse splits when facing left-handed hitters, as he has allowed a .583 slugging percentage, a 1.031 OPS, and two of his five home runs (in 90 fewer at-bats) to lefties.
Alvarez has the second-highest slugging percentage against left-handed pitchers since the start of 2025 (behind only Aaron Judge), and I’m expecting the fact that he snapped a six-game RBI drought will start a new hot streak at the plate.
Munetaka Murakami to hit a home run (+300)
Fifteen of Murakami’s first 32 big-league hits have been home runs. One can confidently rule out the Japanese slugger entering a cold stretch, as he hasn’t gone more than two games without a dinger since an eight-game drought from April 5-12.
It’s true that Murakami tends to produce more in series openers. Entering Friday’s opener against the Mariners, Murakami was batting .395 (17-for-43) with eight home runs in the first games of series, but was hitting just .159 (14-for-88) with six home runs in all other games.
That does not deter me from backing Murakami today as he faces Logan Gilbert, whose HR/9 rate is on pace to increase for the third straight season, with this current 1.6/9 rate being a career-worst.
Joc Pederson to hit a home run (+528)
Joc Pederson is 3-for-8 with a home run in his career off of Cubs righty Jameson Taillon. That’s why the lefty slugger remains a great value play despite Texas being mired in a poor 4-8 stretch while scoring three or fewer runs eight times over that span.
Texas should get its home run swagger back against Taillon, whose 2.45 HR/9 rate allowed makes him the only qualified pitcher with a HR/9 rate worse than 1.89.
Taillon cannot blame the wind-aided Wrigley Field conditions for all of his struggles, as he’s allowed five of his 11 home runs on the road. I’m confidently backing Pederson with his 86th percentile or better hard-hit rate and average exit velocity to go deep.
🚀 Best home run parlay picks today
With three of my home run wagers, I'm backing sluggers that not only rank in the top six on the home run leaderboard, but am expecting home runs in bunches as all three hit long balls in Friday's series openers. In the case of backing Pederson, I'm simply fading Jameson Taillon, who has been the worst qualified starting pitcher at keeping the ball in the ballpark this season.
💵 Best MLB home run parlay today
- Kyle Schwarber to hit a home run (+228)
- Yordan Alvarez to hit a home run (+248)
- Munetaka Murakami to hit a home run (+287)
- Joc Pederson to hit a home run (+528)
Best odds: +27641 via DraftKings (0.1u -> 27.6u)
💵 My betting record for MLB picks
All MLB picks, including SGPs, have been tracked since March 26.
| Bet type | Record | Net profit | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 80-105 | +29.16 units ✅ | +23.6% ✅ |
| Player props | 54-89 | +20.62 units ✅ | +25.1% ✅ |
💡 How I'm betting MLB home run picks today
Follow all of our MLB analysis and expert predictions for baseball season.
After hitting on just two of my last 18 MLB home run picks, I couldn't help but get a little more conservative with my three plays on Alvarez, Murakami, and Schwarber. Because I didn't want to go too chalk across the board, I added more of a longshot play with Pederson. Now if he or Murakami homers, I'm guaranteed to at least break even on the day, while Pederson's play would turn a profit regardless of what the other three sluggers do.
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