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After a smaller slate on Monday, we are back with a full Major League Baseball offering on Tuesday, and you can check out our top MLB prop picks and best bets based on the best MLB odds.

The most significant series starting Tuesday is the two-game set between the San Francisco Giants and Arizona Diamondbacks. San Francisco’s playoff hopes (13.5% entering Tuesday, per FanGraphs) are dire, and losing two games to Arizona would give the Diamondbacks a 7-6 head-to-head tiebreaker if the two teams ended the season with the same record.

Here are our top MLB prop picks and best bets for Tuesday (odds via our best MLB betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Check out our World Series odds.

Tuesday’s MLB schedule and odds

(Odds via DraftKings)

Tuesday’s MLB best bets

  • Player prop: Kyle Schwarber Under 0.5 hits vs. Braves (-120 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐
  • Player prop: Braxton Garrett Under 2.5 earned runs vs. Mets (-170 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
  • Player prop: Mike Yastrzemski to score a run vs. Diamondbacks (OFF) ⭐⭐⭐
  • Run line: Rays -1.5 vs. Angels (+106 via BetRivers) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

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Tuesday’s MLB prop picks

Player prop: Kyle Schwarber Under 0.5 hits vs. Braves (-120 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐

Philadelphia Phillies slugger Kyle Schwarber has homered against Atlanta Braves righty Spencer Strider but is also just 3-for-15 with a whopping eight strikeouts in that small sample size, suggesting he is not picking up Strider’s pitches well. While Schwarber has hit safely in three straight games, he went a combined 0-for-11 in the three contests prior and slashed just .179/.303/.321 in the previous seven days entering Monday.

This is only a three-star play, as Schwarber has hit for a much better average (.264) over the last 15 days. Still, we expect him to go hitless against Strider and the Braves' bullpen, especially since Strider is coming off a nine-strikeout performance against Philadelphia, which brought him to the highest strikeout total by a pitcher in his first 50 career starts since 1893, per ESPN Stats & Info.

Some of our other best sports betting apps, like Caesars (-123) and DraftKings (-125) have comparable prices to back the Under, but bet365 still provides the best value.

Player prop: Braxton Garrett Under 2.5 earned runs vs. Mets (-170 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

The New York Mets have struggled against left-handed pitching all season, going 55-49 against right-handed starting pitchers and 15-31 in games started by lefties. They now face Miami Marlins southpaw Braxton Garrett, whom they have not seen since his first two starts of the season.

Garrett has potentially earned a Game 1 start of a playoff series if the Marlins make it, as he has pitched to a 2.33 ERA in his previous seven starts, with quality starts in four of his last five and one earned run allowed in 9 2/3 innings in September. This is a solid four-star play, as the Mets rank in the bottom half of the league in wRC+ in road games against southpaws since Aug. 1 and are 19th or worse in BABIP and BB/K in that split.

Though New York ranks sixth in HR/FB (16.7%) in that span, Garrett has not allowed a home run in seven of his last nine starts.

With DraftKings and Caesars at -180 and -183 odds, respectively, bet365 is our best sportsbook for Under backers.

Player prop: Mike Yastrzemski to score a run vs. Diamondbacks (OFF) ⭐⭐⭐

Arizona Diamondbacks righty Zac Gallen may have kissed his Cy Young chances goodbye amid a stretch in which he has allowed five-plus runs in three of four starts. While Gallen has made 11 starts of seven-plus innings, his K/9 rate over his last four has plummeted to 7.30, which is concerning for a pitcher who ranks fourth in the NL in strikeouts. And in that span, Gallen has the second-highest FIP (5.37) of any Diamondbacks starter while also having trouble keeping the ball in the yard (team-worst 20.8% HR/FB rate).

Yastrzemski’s .280 on-base percentage over the last seven days is not ideal for a leadoff hitter, but he scored a run in the series finale against the Rockies and has slashed .350/.435/.500 in 20 career at-bats against Gallen. He also hits in front of players like Michael Conforto, who has a 1.159 OPS against Gallen, which betters his chances of crossing the plate.

There are not yet any odds for this prop, as San Francisco has not yet settled on a starting pitcher, but we expect plus-money odds north of +150 for this wager given the Giants’ issues with scoring runs lately.

Tuesday’s MLB game picks

Run line: Rays -1.5 vs. Angels (+106 via BetRivers) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

A series that started so promisingly for the Tampa Bay Rays over the weekend ended poorly, as they won the first two games of a four-game series against the Baltimore Orioles to draw even in the AL East standings but fell to two games back again by dropping the final two games by a combined score of 13-4. The last two losses were also detrimental as the Orioles clinched the season series 8-5, which means they have the head-to-head tiebreaker over the Rays.

However, Tampa Bay has an excellent chance to make up ground this week as Baltimore has to deal with Houston, while the Rays should get right against a Los Angeles Angels squad that has lost five straight games (three by two or more runs). In addition, the Angels seem to have mailed in the end of the season after shutting down Shohei Ohtani with an oblique injury.

The moneyline trends are definitely in Tampa Bay’s favor, going 50-25 at home (+11.35 units, 9% ROI), while Los Angeles is 28-50 in its last 78 (-24.65 units, -27% ROI). But Tampa Bay has also covered the run line in 53.3% of its home games, while the Angels have covered the run line in 46% of their games overall, so we are opting for better value laying the -1.5 runs.

BetRivers is the only sportsbook at which one can find a price better than +102 to back the Rays on the run line.

MLB best bets made 9/19/2023 at 6:15 a.m. ET.

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