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Luka Doncic of the Dallas Mavericks reacts during the first half of Game 6 of the against the Oklahoma City Thunder. We're breaking down the Luka Doncic odds ahead of the Western Conference Finals.
Luka Doncic of the Dallas Mavericks reacts during the first half of Game 6 of the against the Oklahoma City Thunder. Photo by Sam Hodde/Getty Images via AFP.

The Dallas Mavericks face the Minnesota Timberwolves in Game 1 of the Western Conference Finals, and we're offering our top Luka Doncic odds and player props based on the best NBA odds for Wednesday's game.

After a shaky start to the series, the Dallas Mavericks stormed back to take down the top-seeded Oklahoma City Thunder in the second round of the 2024 NBA playoffs. They'll try to replicate that magic tonight as they begin their series with the Minnesota Timberwolves.

Game 1 of the Western Conference Finals will tip off at 8:30 p.m. ET on TNT from Target Center in Minneapolis. The host Timberwolves are 4.5-point favorites to beat the Mavericks.

Luka Doncic, a top contender in the 2024 NBA Finals MVP odds, aims to lead an upset against the Timberwolves, who own the shortest NBA championship odds in the West. With Doncic's playmaking and scoring prowess, the Mavericks will look to challenge Minnesota's stout defense and secure an early advantage in the series.

The Timberwolves, bolstered by Anthony Edwards' outstanding postseason performance, are eager to capitalize on their home-court advantage and continue their impressive playoff run.

Along with our Mavericks vs. Timberwolves player props and our Anthony Edwards odds & player props, here are our best Luka Doncic odds and player props, and NBA picks for Wednesday (odds via our best NBA betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Luka Doncic odds, player props

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Luka Doncic odds, prop bet predictions Game 1

Luka Doncic Under 28.5 points ⭐⭐⭐⭐

More unpredictable than Mark Cuban after a poorly officiated game, it's been a strange two rounds of playoff basketball for Doncic. He's got a laundry list of injuries he's dealing with - most prominently a knee sprain suffered in the first round against the Los Angeles Clippers - and it's impacted his scoring ability.

While he's coming off two of his better games, Doncic is still averaging more than six points less in the postseason (27.3) than in the regular season (33.9). In the series against the Thunder, he averaged just 24.7 per game, and the Timberwolves have an even better defense.

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Minnesota ranked first in both points allowed (106.5) and defensive rating (109.0) this season while holding point guards to only 23.59 points per game. The odds imply a 52.61% probability the Under hits, according to our odds converter, with a $10 bet paying a $9.01 profit.

Best odds: -111 via FanDuel

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Luka Doncic Over 17.5 rebounds + assists ⭐⭐⭐

We live in a world where Deandre Ayton and Marvin Bagley III were drafted before Doncic, and the Atlanta Hawks actually selected him and flipped him to Dallas for Trae Young. Fast forward a few years and Doncic already has the eighth-most triple-doubles in NBA history, and he's only 25.

That's why I was so shocked to see this prop at even money, implying a 50% probability it hits with a $10 bet paying out $20. Mainly because Doncic is coming off three straight triple-doubles against the Thunder and has made up for his inconsistent scoring in the playoffs with his rebounding and playmaking.

While the Timberwolves are a smothering defense, Doncic averaged 19 combined rebounds and assists in the regular season and is at 18.8 in the postseason. Over his last four games, he's averaging a combined 20.1.

Our Rob Paul is also featuring Doncic to record a double-double in his Mavericks vs. Timberwolves parlay.

Best odds: +100 via DraftKings

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Luka Doncic Under 1.5 steals ⭐⭐⭐

Getting to see two faces of the NBA square off for a chance to play in the NBA Finals will be an absolute treat. Doncic and Anthony Edwards are two of the most entertaining players in recent NBA history. With that being said, I don't expect Doncic to be all that impactful on the defensive end of the court.

Between having to deal with Edwards, Mike Conley, Jaden McDaniels, and Nickeil Alexander-Walker while trying to create offense, Doncic is going to be gassed. There are not many teams as loaded one through three defensively as Minnesota, and Doncic will still have to attempt to keep up with Edwards and Karl-Anthony Towns scoring-wise.

I think it's going to be hard for him to finish with more steals than he's averaged this season (1.4). These odds imply a 54.95% probability the Under hits with a $10 bet paying out $18.20.

Best odds: -122 via DraftKings

Mavericks vs. Timberwolves Game 1 info & odds

  • When: Wednesday, May 22
  • Tip-off: 8:30 p.m. ET
  • Where: Target Center, Minneapolis, Minn.
  • How to watch: TNT
  • Favorite:  Timberwolves -4.5 (-105 via BetMGM)

Luka Doncic player props made Tuesday at 1:55 p.m. ET.

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