MLB Prop Picks & Best Bets: Will Schmidt’s Impressive Streak Continue?

Thursday's Major League Baseball slate is comprised of 12 series finales ahead of a fresh slate of matchups over the weekend. Read on for our top MLB prop picks and best bets for Thursday based on the best MLB odds from our best MLB betting sites.

Domingo German became the fourth New York Yankees pitcher to throw a perfect game on Wednesday. It was the first perfect game in MLB since 2012 and the 24th in the history of the league, and came after he had allowed 17 combined runs in his previous two starts. That’s baseball, Suzyn.

Can the Yankees build off that momentum to win the rubber match of the three-game series against the Oakland Athletics?

Here are our top MLB prop picks and best bets for Thursday (odds via our best MLB betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Thursday’s MLB schedule and odds

(odds via DraftKings)

• Miami Marlins (+100) vs. Boston Red Sox (-120)
• San Francisco Giants (+135) vs. Toronto Blue Jays  (-155)
• Milwaukee Brewers (+160) vs. New York Mets (-190)
• Houston Astros (-120) vs. St. Louis Cardinals (+100)
• Philadelphia Phillies (-120) vs. Chicago Cubs (+100)
• Los Angeles Dodgers (-200) vs. Colorado Rockies (+170)

Thursday’s MLB best bets

• Player prop: Kyle Tucker Over 1.5 total bases (-115 via DraftKings) vs. Cardinals ⭐⭐⭐⭐
• Player prop: Max Scherzer to record a win (-105 via DraftKings) vs. Brewers ⭐⭐⭐
• Player prop: Clarke Schmidt Under earned runs allowed (OFF) vs. Athletics ⭐⭐⭐⭐
• Run line: Red Sox -1.5 vs. Marlins (+165 via WynnBet) ⭐⭐⭐

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Thursday’s MLB prop picks

Player prop: Kyle Tucker Over total bases vs. Cardinals (-115 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Adam Wainwright's projections for this start may be slightly inflated after getting lit up for seven runs on 11 hits in just three innings in hitter-friendly London Stadium in his last start. However, the St. Louis Cardinals veteran has struggled all season, so we cannot simply chalk up the poor outing to facing a divisional opponent in a bandbox. 

Entering his last start, Wainwright had allowed at least three runs in all eight appearances and threw more balls (39.4%) than strikes (39.1%) over his previous three. Wainwright is also allowing a .398 and 2.29 WHIP against left-handed batters this season and has surrendered five home runs in 19 2/3 innings against lefties compared to three home runs in 27 innings against righties. 

This is a four-star play as Kyle Tucker has hit safely in five straight games, and 39% of his hits in June (in which he has batted .304) have gone for extra bases. Compared to FanDuel’s -120 odds for this wager, DraftKings provides better value.

Player prop: Max Scherzer to record a win vs. Brewers (-105 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐

The Milwaukee Brewers are 31-4 when scoring five-plus runs this season and 11-34 when they don't. Considering that New York Mets ace Max Scherzer is unbeaten (5-0) in his previous eight starts while pitching to a 3.19 ERA in that span, we do not like Milwaukee's chances of offensive success or winning a pitcher's duel.

Since starting that unbeaten run on May 14, Scherzer ranks in the top 10 in FIP (3.11), with the only negative being an 11.3% HR/FB rate. However, that should not be an issue against a Brewers team ranked 19th in home runs (86) this season and 29th in slugging (.348) in June.

DraftKings once again provides slightly better value than one of the only other sportsbooks offering this prop, as PointsBet is at -110.

Player prop: Clarke Schmidt Under earned runs allowed vs. Athletics (OFF) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Few bettors will be willing to back the New York Yankees with Clarke Schmidt on the mound, as the team has lost each of his last six starts. However, not much blame can be put on Schmidt, as he pitched to a 1.97 ERA in that span while the Yankees offense scored nine total runs. Schmidt's recent stretch is more impressive when considering four of those six starts have come against top-10 offenses.

Dating back to May 1, Schmidt has a 1.0 WAR, a far cry from finishing April with a 6.84 ERA and an 0-3 record. And his 3.60 FIP is 22nd in MLB in that span and top-10 among all AL pitchers.

Oakland has been held to three or fewer runs in 12 of its last 14 games, which has us confidently backing the Under on this prop as a four-star play. We hope to get Schmidt’s O/U at 2.5 earned runs when it becomes available, but would play it down to 1.5.

Thursday’s MLB game picks

Run line: Red Sox -1.5 vs. Marlins (+165 via WynnBet) ⭐⭐⭐

Boston Red Sox righty Brayan Bello has quickly turned into the staff's ace, with a 2.70 ERA over his previous 11 starts. Bello continues to put up impressive numbers despite generating few swings and misses, as he posted a 24% called strike plus whiff percentage in his last start. However, his lack of missing bats was offset by a 52.6% ground-ball rate and an average exit velocity allowed of 81.5 mph, which now has him ranked in the 47th percentile in that metric.

We expect Bello to outduel Jesus Luzardo, who ranks in the 12th percentile in barrels, and whose 39.9% hard-hit percentage allowed is on pace to be the worst of his career. This is a four-star play, as Boston is four games over .500 against left-handed starting pitchers (13-9) and just 27-32 when righties toe the rubber. 

WynnBet is the only sportsbook offering better than +160 odds to lay the -1.5 runs.

MLB best bets made 6/29/2023 at 7:22 a.m. ET.

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