MLB Prop Picks & Best Bets: Seager to Attack Yankee Stadium's Short Porch?

Check out today's MLB prop picks and best bets for Saturday's full schedule.

Mike Spector

Last Updated: June 24, 2023 9:25 AM EDT • 6 minute read

Major League Baseball returns to London for a two-game series between the Chicago Cubs and St. Louis Cardinals beginning Saturday, leading to a full 15-game slate being played over two continents. Read on for our top MLB prop picks and best bets for Saturday based on the best MLB odds from our best sports betting apps.

The Atlanta Braves and Cincinnati Reds had won 19 consecutive games between them entering their series opener on Friday. It was just the seventh time in MLB history that two teams opened a series while both were on a winning streak of at least eight contests, according to Sarah Langs of MLB.com. The opener did not disappoint, with the Reds winning an 11-10 slugfest as Elly De La Cruz led the way while hitting for the cycle, the first in 34 years for the franchise.

Here are our top MLB prop picks and best bets for Saturday (odds via DraftKings, FanDuel, and PointsBet; Pick confidence is based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Check out our World Series odds.

Saturday’s MLB schedule and odds

Chicago Cubs (-150) vs. St. Louis Cardinals (+130)
Seattle Mariners (-110) vs. Baltimore Orioles (-110)
Arizona Diamondbacks (OFF) vs. San Francisco Giants
New York Mets (-130) vs. Philadelphia Phillies (+110)
Texas Rangers (-130) vs. New York Yankees (+110)
Oakland Athletics (+235) vs. Toronto Blue Jays (-280)
Kansas City Royals (+230) vs. Tampa Bay Rays (-275)
Atlanta Braves (-140) vs. Cincinnati Reds (+120)
Boston Red Sox (-120) vs. Chicago White Sox (+100)
Pittsburgh Pirates (+125) vs. Miami Marlins (-145)
Milwaukee Brewers (+110) vs. Cleveland Guardians (-130)
Houston Astros (+150) vs. Los Angeles Dodgers (-175)
Minnesota Twins (-155) vs. Detroit Tigers (+135)
Washington Nationals (+170) vs. San Diego Padres (-200)
Los Angeles Angels (-155) vs. Colorado Rockies (+135)

Saturday’s MLB best bets

Player Prop: Corey Seager to hit a home run (+390 via FanDuel) vs. Yankees ⭐⭐⭐
Player Prop: Bo Bichette Over total bases (-130 via DraftKings) vs. Athletics ⭐⭐⭐⭐
J.D. Davis Over 0.5 RBIs vs. Diamondbacks (+195 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐
Alternate run line: Rays -2 vs. Royals (+115 via PointsBet) ⭐⭐⭐

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Check out our MLB rookie of the year odds.

Saturday’s MLB prop picks

Player prop: Corey Seager to hit a home run vs. Yankees (+390 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐

The New York Yankees entered Friday as the only team in MLB with four pitchers who have logged at least 10 starts and an ERA of 4.60 or higher. And while Luis Severino does not qualify with just six starts, his 6.30 ERA suggests he'll eventually be added to that list.

Severino has allowed three home runs in two separate June starts, which is dangerous when facing a Texas Rangers lineup that's one of seven with 100-plus home runs on the season. The Yankees allowed the Seattle Mariners to hit a season-high four home runs on Thursday night, and we're banking on lefty Corey Seager to take advantage of the short porch at Yankee Stadium.

This is a three-star play because Severino has allowed four home runs across 11 2/3 innings at home in 2023, and Seager entered Friday with a team-high .687 slugging percentage, .322 ISO, and 205 wRC+ against right-handed pitching.

FanDuel is easily our go-to shop for this wager, as DraftKings, Caesars, and PointsBet are all at +300 or worse.

Check out our home run leader odds.

Player prop: Bo Bichette Over 1.5 total bases vs. Athletics (-130 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Toronto Blue Jays shortstop Bo Bichette has produced 30 total bases in 51 at-bats against left-handed pitchers, and his .959 OPS is second to only Matt Chapman on the team against southpaws. He now faces Oakland Athletics lefty Hogan Harris, who's making his third MLB start across seven appearances.

Harris has allowed five or fewer hits all five times he's recorded 15-plus outs. But the lefty has given up a .243 OBA in road games (84 points higher than at home), and half of Bichette’s 14 home runs have come at home across 45 fewer at-bats than on the road. In addition, half of Bichette’s hits over the previous seven days and 38.7% of his knocks across the last 30 have gone for extra bases. There's a good chance of only needing one hit from Bichette to cash this Over.

The best value lies with DraftKings, as Caesars and FanDuel are juiced to -139 or higher for the Over.

Check out our MVP odds.

J.D. Davis Over 0.5 RBIs vs. Diamondbacks (+195 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐

The San Francisco Giants averaged eight runs per contest during a recent 10-game winning streak. After getting shut out on Thursday against the San Diego Padres, they were back to scoring eight runs against the Arizona Diamondbacks. Arizona righty Merrill Kelly has won six of his last seven starts, but we still feel compelled to get a piece of the hottest team in baseball outside of the Cincinnati Reds.

Kelly’s hard-hit percentage allowed (40.3%) and walk rate (9.9%) are on pace to be the worst of his career, and his 3.99 expected ERA compared to his 2.90 actual ERA suggests regression is coming for the No. 2 starter.

And he's tougher on lefties than righties, with a 1.31 WHIP and .222 OBA to righties compared to a 0.88 WHIP and .167 OBA against left-handed hitters. That means we're getting great value with J.D. Davis to drive in a run, as he leads the team with 42 RBIs and ranks 37th in the league. Davis has recorded an RBI during two of the last three games, and he'll be relied upon to do more of the heavy lifting with teammate Mike Yastrzemski on the IL.

With Davis’ odds as low as +179 at Caesars to drive in a run, DraftKings once again is our shop of choice.

Saturday’s MLB game picks

Alternate run line: Rays -2 vs. Royals (+115 via PointsBet) ⭐⭐⭐

There's a wide gap between the Tampa Bay Rays and Kansas City Royals in run differential, with 278 runs separating the teams (plus-153 for Tampa Bay, minus-125 for Kansas City). Additionally, Tampa Bay’s 33 home wins are nine more than the next closest team, while Kansas City’s 11 road victories are tied for the fewest in the league. Is another rout in order?

This wager is entirely a fade of Royals righty Jordan Lyles, as the team is 0-15 in his starts, the longest losing streak when a pitcher starts to begin a season in MLB history, according to ESPN Stats & Info. The Rays are a combined 17-for-66 (.258) with three home runs against Lyles, and more balls should leave the yard on Saturday, as Lyles is tied for the third-most home runs allowed (18) of any starting pitcher.

This three-star play becomes a four-star play if Tampa Bay activates Wander Franco after benching him for two games. Franco is slashing .287/.349/.455 and has posted career-highs in home runs (eight) and stolen bases (24) through 72 games.

Tampa Bay is 28-14 (.667, 30.5% ROI) against the run line this season, according to Inside Edge. That top mark in the league gives us the confidence to lay extra runs against a poor Kansas City squad. PointsBet’s +115 odds to lay two runs offers the same payout as DraftKings’ to lay -2.5 runs.

Check out our Cy Young Odds.

MLB best bets made 6/24/2023 at 7:03 a.m. ET.

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Written by:
Mike Spector

Mike started in the sports writing industry in July 2019, and gained a lot of followers in his first year after finishing with the No. 2 overall record in an annual NFL betting competition, which made picks against the spread, and from an Over/Under and moneyline perspective. Mike is an avid fan of the NFL, MLB, tennis, and all college sports. In his opinion, March Madness is the best sporting event there is, and he's especially euphoric starting with conference tournament time in college basketball. Mike's a big advocate of "fading the public" and making plays that are contrarian, constantly citing that "there are reasons why they have those big shiny buildings in Las Vegas." When making wagers, Mike always scours the best odds at all of the major sports betting sites, where he mostly sifts through DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, and bet365. He's tried several others and is of the firm belief that bettors should not just stick to one sportsbook, as there is always likely better value to be had with the same wager. In addition, while Mike received his undergraduate degree from Villanova University, he has no issue betting against the Wildcats when it comes to college basketball wagering, and suggests other bettors should always put their “head” before their “hearts.”