Astros vs. Blue Jays Prediction, Odds & Expert Picks: MLB Best Bets for Sept. 11
Runs have been at a premium in the first two games of the series between Houston and Toronto, and I’m banking on more of the same for my Astros vs. Blue Jays prediction. First pitch for the series ender is set for 3:07 p.m. ET on Thursday afternoon from Rogers Centre in Toronto.
My MLB picks think Astros starter Cristian Javier is in a decent position to have success, and I’m backing the Over on one of his player props.
Our Gabe Henderson also targets Houston second baseman Jose Altuve in his best home run predictions today.
⚾ Astros vs. Blue Jays expert picks & predictions
MLB odds subject to change.
- Moneyline pick: Astros (+136 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐
- Run line pick: Astros +1.5 (-160 via bet365) ⭐⭐
- Over/Under pick: Under 8.5 (-114 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐
📝 Astros vs. Blue Jays preview & best bet
Track the latest MLB scores for line movement and matchup info.
⬇️ Under 8.5 runs (-114) ⭐⭐⭐
The Astros and Blue Jays have gone Under the total in each of their first five head-to-head meetings this season.
The Blue Jays have a huge hole in their lineup with star shortstop Bo Bichette sidelined due to a knee injury. The lineup is looking a lot thinner without Bichette helping to anchor things out of the cleanup spot. Toronto managed to score just 10 runs over its last four games, three of which were without Bichette.
Javier has enjoyed success against the Blue Jays in his career, holding them to one run on four hits over 10 innings across his last two starts. Javier has been uneven in five starts since returning from the IL but has shown flashes of his past dominance.
Meanwhile, Blue Jays starter Kevin Gausman is coming off an eight-inning gem against the Yankees in his last start and has been excellent with a 3.13 ERA, 40 strikeouts, and only seven walks over his last seven outings.
One of the best sports betting sites, FanDuel, offered -114 odds on the Under, which nets out a profit of $8.77 on a $10 bet. The -114 odds have an implied probability of 53.27%.
💰 Best Astros vs. Blue Jays player prop bet
Our MLB player prop odds tool shows the best odds for every market across legal sportsbooks in your area.
⬆️ Cristian Javier Over 3.5 strikeouts (+102) ⭐⭐⭐
Javier has a tough draw against a Blue Jays lineup that avoids strikeouts better than any other team in baseball this season.
However, the Blue Jays are slightly below league average when it comes to chasing pitches outside of the strike zone, offering Javier a potential avenue to have some success.
Javier’s changeup and sweeper have both been plus offerings for him in 2025. His changeup has a 35.1% whiff rate, while his sweeper sits at 32%. A handful of the Blue Jays’ hitters have had some struggles against offspeed pitches this season. If Javier can establish his fastball enough, it should allow his secondary offerings to be that much more effective against a suddenly scuffling Blue Jays lineup.
A $10 wager on Javier’s Over pays out a profit of $10.20. The +102 odds have an implied probability of 49.50%.
📊 Astros vs. Blue Jays odds: Sept. 11
MLB odds update live in real time.
📈 Astros vs. Blue Jays betting odds analysis
Toronto opened as high as a -175 favorite, with some of the best sports betting apps offering them as low as -150, as of this writing.
🔢 Astros vs. Blue Jays stats
Season stats courtesy of baseball-reference.com.
| Astros (79-67) | Statistic (per game) | Blue Jays (83-62) |
|---|---|---|
| 4.21 | Runs | 4.97 |
| 8.58 | Hits | 9.14 |
| .253 | AVG | .269 |
| .401 | SLG | .432 |
| .720 | OPS | .770 |
| 3.85 | ERA | 4.23 |
| 9.56 | K/9 | 8.98 |
| 3.19 | BB/9 | 3.21 |
| 1.22 | HR/9 | 1.35 |
🚑 Astros vs. Blue Jays injuries
📺 Astros vs. Blue Jays game info
- When: Thursday, Sept. 11
- First pitch: 3:07 p.m. ET
- Where: Rogers Centre (Toronto)
- How to watch: Local TV
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❓ Astros vs. Blue Jays FAQs
Who is favored to win Astros vs. Blue Jays?
The Blue Jays are a -150 favorite to defeat the Astros at home on Thursday.
What is the run line for Astros vs. Blue Jays?
Toronto is a -1.5 run line favorite against Houston in Thursday's matchup.
What is the Over/Under for Astros vs. Blue Jays?
The total for Thursday’s game between the Astros and Blue Jays is 8.5.
What are the best bets for Astros vs. Blue Jays?
My best bets for Thursday’s Astros vs. Blue Jays game are Under 8.5 runs (-114) and Cristian Javier Over 3.5 strikeouts (+102).
When is the Astros vs. Blue Jays game?
First pitch is set for 3:07 p.m. ET on Thursday.
How do baseball odds work?
When betting on MLB, the run line shows how many runs the favorite needs to win by in order to cash the bet. For example, a favorite of -1.5 must win by two or more runs to cover the run line, while an underdog at +1.5 must win outright or lose by one run to cover the run line.
Moneyline odds represent the payout for picking the outright winner (+200 means a $100 bet wins $200, while -200 means a $200 bet wins $100). Over/Unders let you wager on whether the combined total of runs will be higher or lower than the set number.
You can determine the payouts and implied probabilities for any wager - or convert odds to different formats - with our odds converter.
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