2023 Memorial Tournament Picks, Predictions & Odds: Can Fowler Return to Winner's Circle?

Scottie Scheffler and Jon Rahm control the PGA Tour oddsboard once again this week but we're searching for value with our best Memorial Tournament picks based on the odds from our best sports betting apps.

A loaded PGA Tour field returns to Muirfield Village Golf Club for the 2023 Memorial Tournament with Scottie Scheffler and Jon Rahm listed as heavy consensus favorites as the top two players, respectively, in the Official World Golf Ranking (OWGR).

Rahm took last week off in the wake of a disappointing T-50 finish in the PGA Championship while Scheffler followed his T-2 finish at Oak Hill Country Club with a T-3 showing last week in the Charles Schwab Challenge. Rahm was the winner of the 2020 Memorial Tournament at the Jack Nicklaus-designed MVGC; Billy Horschel won by four strokes last year.

Let's look at our best Memorial Tournament picks from our best sports betting sites, along with a course preview and key stats for the week.

Memorial Tournament picks

• To win: Justin Thomas (+3000 via DraftKings)
• To win: Rickie Fowler (+4000 via BetMGM)
• Top 5: Tyrrell Hatton (+600 via FanDuel)
• Top 10: Hideki Matsuyama (+330 via FanDuel)
• Round 1 top 10: Russell Henley (+400 via BetMGM)

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Memorial Tournament odds

Memorial Tournament odds last updated Wednesday, May 31 at 9 p.m. ET

Check out our look at the U.S. Open odds, Open Championship odds, FedEx Cup odds, and 2024 Masters odds and PGA Championship odds.

Memorial Tournament picks to win

Justin Thomas (+3000 via DraftKings)

Thomas was a late outright add for me Wednesday evening. His odds had dropped across our best sports betting sites, save for this lingering +3000 via DraftKings. I was intrigued already but was waiting for the odds to rise a little higher for the 15th-ranked golfer in the world. Taking advantage of DraftKings' delayed adjustment will have to suffice.

Thomas has plenty of experience at Muirfield Village and has averaged 1.33 true strokes gained per round, including a runner-up in the 2020 Workday Charity Open. While there's not a lot of promise in his recent results (including a disappointing T-65 in the PGA Championship), he has still been performing well on approach to the green and with his always-sharp short game.

Maybe this week he'll make a couple putts for us.

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Rickie Fowler (+4000 via BetMGM)

Fowler is expected to be a popular pick to win this week's Memorial Tournament. After opening at around +4000 across the market, his odds as the outright winner dropped at most of our best sports betting apps but that makes this lingering +4000 via BetMGM even more tantalizing. I wouldn't make this bet at anything shorter than this number.

Fowler is among the most experienced in this field with 48 career rounds played at Muirfield Village and an average of 1.56 true strokes gained on the field per round. He enters off a T-6 finish in last week's Charles Schwab Challenge, in which he ranked second in the field in strokes gained: around-the-green. That's been a strength of his this season while he also gained strokes on approach.

We can overlook Fowler's missed cut in the PGA Championship as he lost 1.26 strokes per round on the greens in an outlier poor putting performance.

Memorial Tournament placing picks

Top 5: Tyrrell Hatton (+600 via FanDuel)

Bettors should definitely have some action on Hatton this week, and the top-five placing market is my favorite avenue by which to do so.

The Englishman has improved from No. 26 in the OWGR at the end of 2022 to No. 17 entering this week with only one missed cut through 13 events. Hatton tied for 15th in the PGA Championship with strong overall form that's been consistent through his last 20 measured rounds.

Our other best sports betting sites are offering odds of +500 or as low as +400 for Hatton to finish in the top five of this elevated field, so be sure to grab this +600 via FanDuel.

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Our Neil Parker also rates Hatton highly in his Memorial Tournament power rankings.

Top 10: Hideki Matsuyama (+330 via FanDuel)

I joined betting analyst Geoff Clark on this week's episode of the OutKick Bets podcast to break down the Memorial Tournament. There, he convinced me to snatch a piece of Matsuyama this week.

I was hesitant because Matsuyama lost 1.41 strokes with his putter in the PGA Championship. However, he still managed to tie for 29th thanks to phenomenal play with his irons and short game. I can lean on those strengths and trust in his flat stick to be even a little improved on the bentgrass greens at a course where he claimed his first PGA Tour victory in 2014.

FanDuel is offering the market's best price on this top-10 finish with most of our other best sportsbooks at a flat +300.

Memorial Tournament first-round leader pick

Russell Henley top 10 (+400 via BetMGM)

As of Tuesday morning, BetMGM is the only one of our best sportsbooks offering this first-round placing market, so we're stuck with the +400 it's offering. Keep your eyes open through the week in the hope of a few more books offering this market as first- and second-round tee times are released.

I was on Henley as the outright winner last week. Though he disappointed me with a T-16 finish, I'm sticking with him for all the same reasons. Henley is an expert around the greens and ranks second in this field in driving accuracy over his last 20 measured rounds. I fully expect him to bounce back from what was a rare poor performance with his approach shots last week.

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Muirfield Village Golf Club course profile

Par: 72
Length: 7,543
Greens: Bentgrass
Architect: Jack Nicklaus/Desmond Muirhead

Much like last week at Colonial Country Club for the Charles Schwab Challenge, accuracy off the tee will be paramount to success this week. The Memorial Tournament regularly serves as the final tune-up for the U.S. Open for many of the top names in the field. As such, Nicklaus likes to have it play to U.S. Open conditions with thick rough and firm greens.

Muirfield Village GC is quite long, even as a par 72. Seven of the 10 par 4s range between 450 and 500 yards with another two shorter than 400 yards that golfers will need to take advantage of. One of those, the 360-yard 14th hole was one of the five holes on the course to play under par in 2022. The other four were each of the par 5s as three of the four par 3s exceed 200 yards.

Water is a primary hazard on nine holes with streams and ponds guarding either the front, back, or side of the greens. This, and the firm and fast putting surfaces, puts a heavy emphasis on strokes gained: approach.

Weather can often have an impact on this event with heavy rains and strong winds common to the Dublin, OH area this time of year. As of Monday afternoon, the forecast for the week looks calm with only a low chance of precipitation. Keep a close eye on the weather report leading up to Thursday, especially when looking to make any first-round leader or matchup bets.

Memorial Tournament key stats

• Strokes gained: approach
• SG: around-the-green
• Proximity from 175-200 yards
• Good drive percentage
• Bogey avoidance
• Scrambling

Memorial Tournament info

When: Thursday, June 1 - Sunday, June 4
Where: Muirfield Village Golf Club, Dublin, OH
How to watch: Golf Channel, CBS
Purse: $20 million
Defending champion: Billy Horschel

Recent Memorial Tournament winners

Here are our best sports betting apps:

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• PointsBet: Earn Five Second-Chance Bets Up to $50 Each | Read our PointsBet Review
• BetMGM: Get a Bonus Bet of Up to $1,000 | Read our BetMGM Review

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