2023 Charles Schwab Challenge Picks, Predictions & Odds: It's Henley Week at Colonial CC

Scottie Scheffler and Viktor Hovland, both coming off impressive T-2 finishes in the PGA Championship, are poised to lead the charge in a field stacked with talent at the Charles Schwab Challenge hosted at Colonial Country Club. Brace yourself for our 2023 Charles Schwab Challenge picks, along with a comprehensive course preview and crucial key statistics to factor in when making your selections.  

Scottie Scheffler and Viktor Hovland each finished two strokes behind 2023 PGA Champion Brooks Koepka, of the LIV Golf Invitational Series. Now fronting a very strong post-major PGA Tour field of 120, Scheffler is a heavy consensus betting favorite for Colonial Country Club after taking over the top spot in the Official World Golf Ranking (OWGR). He also leapfrogged Jon Rahm as the favorite by the U.S. Open odds with the third major of the year just three weeks away.

It'll be no easy task for Scheffler this week. He'll need to hold off Hovland, defending Charles Schwab champion Sam Burns, and seven more of the top 25 golfers in the OWGR. 

Michael Block, the 46-year-old PGA of America club professional who captured headlines last week en route to a T-15 finish, will also be in the field this week after receiving a sponsor invite. Block was also invited to the Canadian Open in mid-June.

Let's dive into our top Charles Schwab Challenge picks based on the golf odds from our best sports betting apps.

Charles Schwab Challenge picks

• To win: Russell Henley (+4000)
• Top-10 finish: Eric Cole (+850 via FanDuel)
• Top rest of world: Sungjae Im (+350 via BetMGM, PointsBet)

Charles Schwab Challenge odds

Charles Schwab Challenge odds last updated Wednesday, May 24 at 8:15 a.m. ET

Check out our look at the U.S. Open odds, Open Championship odds, FedEx Cup odds, and 2024 Masters odds and PGA Championship odds.

Charles Schwab Challenge odds analysis

Scheffler, now back to No. 1 in the world rankings, is a very heavy favorite considering the talent in the Charles Schwab Challenge field. He has an implied win probability of 20% across the market after FanDuel opened as high as +490 Monday morning.

As of Wednesday morning, the top of the Charles Schwab Challenge oddsboard has become fairly uniform with few outlier prices in either a positive or negative direction. Discrepancies remain a little further down the board and bettors will need to shop around for the Charles Schwab Challenge sleeper and long-shot picks.

Michael Block's Charles Schwab Challenge odds

Block, the head professional at Arroyo Tabuco Golf Club in Viejo, CA entered his fifth appearance in the PGA Championship at No. 3580 in the OWGR. He improved to 577 with a T-15 finish at plus-1 for 72 holes which matched Tyrrell Hatton and Eric Cole, and beat the likes of Xander Schauffele, Patrick Reed, Collin Morikawa, Adam Scott, and Spieth.

The performance gained the 46-year-old entry to the Charles Schwab Challenge and RBC Canadian Open. He became an early fan favorite and put a cherry on top while hitting an ace in Sunday's round while paired with Rory McIlroy.

But our best sports betting sites aren't getting too caught up in the magic of last week. Block opened with Charles Schwab Challenge odds ranging from +30000 to +70000 for an implied win probability of 0.14% to 0.33%. Needless to say, a wager on Block to win the Charles Schwab Challenge would be ill-advised, even at the threat of FOMO.

BetMGM is offering Block to make the cut at +250 with -333 odds on the 'no' side. The +250 odds represent the best price in the market with DraftKings boosting Block's odds to make the cut to +200. It's the only plus-money price either book is offering in the to make the cut market.

Charles Schwab Challenge best bets

To win: Russell Henley (+4000 via BetMGM)

Henley's streak of five straight made cuts was snapped with a missed cut in last week's PGA Championship. That followed a T-4 in the Masters and a T-19 in the RBC Heritage, so his ability shouldn't be questioned. Henley averaged 1.51 strokes gained on approach over his two rounds last week but lost a woeful 1.75 strokes on the greens per round at Oak Hill Country Club.

That poor putting performance is an outlier this season for the 31st-ranked golfer in the OWGR. Across his last 16 measured rounds, Henley is averaging 0.84 SG: approach, 0.59 SG: around-the-green, and 0.55 SG: putting per round. His relative lack of driving distance won't be as punished at Colonial as it was last week, and Henley leads this field in accuracy off the tee across everyone's last 16 rounds.

Henley's odds to win the Charles Schwab Challenge are as low as +3000 via Caesars, so run with this added value available via FanDuel, BetMGM, and PointsBet.

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Top-10 finish: Eric Cole (+850 via FanDuel)

I'm not entirely against betting on Cole to win outright at odds as high as +10000 this week but this +850 via FanDuel for a top-10 finish is incredible value next to the +500 odds from BetMGM.

Cole held the lead at the PGA Championship at the end of play Thursday but it disappeared quickly as he finished his first round Friday morning. He sat one stroke back of Bryson DeChambeau after 18 holes and went on to tie for 15th after a second round of plus-4, 74. He excelled around the greens and that has been his strong suit this season.

I like this tournament schedule spot for Cole a lot. Many of the top names in the field, including Scheffler, are likely to not be as motivated following the second major of 2023. That opens the door again for Cole who has two top-10 finishes this season, including a runner-up in The Honda Classic which followed a star-studded elevated event.

Top rest of world: Sungjae Im (+350 via BetMGM, PointsBet)

A week after winning the Korean Tour's Woori Financial Group Championship, Im missed the cut by a wide margin in the PGA Championship. That was his first missed cut on the PGA Tour since the Sony Open in Hawaii, and he had five top-10 finishes in that stretch.

Im will play Colonial for the fifth straight year. While he missed the cut in two of those previous four appearances, he tied for 10th and 15th in the other two runnings of the Charles Schwab Challenge.

Im has struggled with his approach game of late, but he's excelling on and around the greens and has been one of the most accurate drivers in this field. 

Colonial Country Club course profile

Par: 70
Length: 7,209 yards
Greens: Bentgrass
Architect: John Bredemus & Perry Maxwell

The PGA Tour is back at Colonial Country Club for the 78th time. The longest-running non-major stop on the PGA Tour is a favorite of many PGA Tour golfers, especially those with ties to Texas, including Burns, Spieth, and Scheffler.

A par-70 course of a relatively modest 7,209 yards, Colonial puts the emphasis on second shots. Play into and around the greens should be the focus of any tournament research this week. Burns' winning score of minus-9 last year was the highest winning number since Adam Scott shot 9-under par during his victory in 2014. Just three holes played below par last year, with two of those being the par 5s.

Seven of the par 4s range from 400-450 yards with two shorter than 400 yards also representing scoring opportunities. The par 3s play long while ranging from 190 to 247 yards.

Charles Schwab Challenge key stats

• Strokes gained: approach
• SG: around-the-green
• Proximity 125-150 yards
• Par-3 scoring
• Bogey avoidance

The formula this week is fairly simple: we want ball-strikers who'll avoid trouble.

Water is really in play on only four holes with narrow, tree-lined fairways and the small greens posing the biggest threats to scorecards at Colonial CC.

Driving accuracy is much more important than distance off the tee. Be sure to pair strokes gained: approach with proximity from the key range of 125-150 yards. The smaller-than-average putting surfaces also require potential winners to be sharp around the greens.

Charles Schwab Challenge tournament info

When: Thursday, May 25 - Sunday, May 28
Where: Colonial Country Club, Forth Worth, TX
How to watch: CBS, Golf Channel
Purse: $8.7 million
Defending champion: Sam Burns

Recent Charles Schwab Challenge winners

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