2023 AT&T Byron Nelson Picks, Odds: Precursor to 2nd Major Offers Excellent Value

The final PGA Tour event ahead of 2023's second major has brought a quality field to TPC Craig Ranch in McKinney, TX. We're offering up our best AT&T Byron Nelson picks and odds, along with a course breakdown, and a look at the key stats you need to know.

The AT&T Byron Nelson in McKinney, TX, is the final event ahead of the PGA Championship. Scottie Scheffler, entering the week ranked No. 2 in the Official World Golf Ranking (OWGR), is the consensus betting favorite, but he'll be challenged by a strong pre-major field including Tyrrell Hatton and Jason Day. K.H. Lee will attempt to win this event for the third straight year. Jordan Spieth withdrew on Monday due to a wrist injury.

This week is the last best chance to get your early wagers in on the PGA Championship odds as well. Expect prices for the second major of 2023 to fluctuate dramatically based on this week's results and as more attention is paid to a betting market that has been available for nearly a full year.

Read on as we break down our best AT&T Byron Nelson picks from our best sports betting sites, along with our course preview and key stats.

AT&T Byron Nelson picks

• Outright winner: Tom Hoge (+5000 via FanDuel)
• Top-10 finish: Jimmy Walker (+850 via FanDuel)
• Top rest of the world player: Tom Kim (+650 via FanDuel)

Not intended for use in MA
Affiliate Disclosure: Sportsbook Review may receive advertising commissions for visits to a sportsbook

AT&T Byron Nelson odds 2023

Check out our look at the PGA Championship odds, U.S. Open odds, Open Championship odds, and 2024 Masters odds.

AT&T Byron Nelson odds analysis & field notes

Scheffler returns to action as the consensus betting favorite and top-ranked golfer in the AT&T Byron Nelson field after skipping last week's elevated Wells Fargo Championship. The greatest impact of Spieth's withdrawal was the shortening of Scheffler's AT&T Byron Nelson odds across the market. He went from around +450 as of Monday afternoon to as short as Caesars' +330 odds as of Wednesday morning.

Other ramifications of Spieth being forced to back out after opening with the second-shortest outright odds this week include the shortening of the odds for Hatton, Day, Tom Kim, and K.H. Lee. This field thins out quickly after the top five or eight contenders so the movement didn't trickle too far down the board.

Those not already exempt into the PGA Championship field will have their final opportunity to gain entry with a victory this week.

AT&T Byron Nelson predictions

Outright winner: Tom Hoge (+5000 via FanDuel)

Bet $5, Win $300 in Bonus Bets

New customers only. Min. first deposit and wager of $5+. Bonus bets are awarded within 72 hours of winning your first wager. T&Cs apply.

Claim $300

Hoge was regularly a popular outright pick early in 2023. He has moved up from No. 36 to No. 30 in the OWGR this calendar year without a victory and is in a great spot for a bounce-back performance following back-to-back missed cuts at the Masters and RBC Heritage.

Hoge's best results this year are a pair of T-3 finishes in the Sentry Tournament of Champions and The Players Championship. That can help to remedy any doubts regarding his abilities as a result of his four missed cuts this year, as each of those were against an elevated field.

The North Carolina native and TCU grad improved upon his missed cut at TPC Craig Ranch in 2021 with a T-17 finish last year in which he averaged 1.00 strokes gained: around-the-green and 1.32 SG: tee-to-green per round. He's gaining an average of 0.66 strokes on approach across his last 16 measured rounds while ranking 13th for the 2022-23 PGA Tour season in proximity from 200-plus yards and eighth in birdie-or-better percentage.

Four of our five best sportsbooks lowered the outright odds on Hoge throughout the week except for FanDuel, which was still offering our best price of +5000 as of Wednesday morning.

Top-10 finish: Jimmy Walker (+850 via FanDuel)

Bet $5, Win $300 in Bonus Bets

New customers only. Min. first deposit and wager of $5+. Bonus bets are awarded within 72 hours of winning your first wager. T&Cs apply.

Claim $300

Walker, a 44-year-old from Oklahoma, is playing his best golf since recording his six career PGA Tour victories from October 2013 to July 2016.

The former major winner finished 2021 at No. 497 in the OWGR but has climbed back to No. 245 with three top-20 finishes this year, including each of the last two weeks in the Mexico Open and Wells Fargo Championship.

Disregard Walker's missed cut in this event in 2021 as this is a completely different version of himself. While he has been relying perhaps too heavily on a hot putter, Walker also averaged 0.80 SG: around-the-green in last week's T-14 finish against a much stronger field and he ranks seventh in this field in distance off the tee over his last 16 measured rounds.

Top rest of the world player: Tom Kim (+650 via FanDuel)

We're stepping back from my weekly Tom Kim outright pick this week and playing it safer with the Top Rest of the World Player market. Four of our five best sports betting sites offer this market (shame on you, Caesars) and the best value—by far—comes via FanDuel once again.

Second to Australian Jason Day by the odds in this market at each book, Kim ranges from as low as +500 via DraftKings to this +650 offering from FanDuel. Also at FanDuel, Kim (+310) holds a slight edge over Hideki Matsuyama (+340) and Lee (+430) in the Top Asian market. Kim is offered as low as +275 via DraftKings in that market.

Kim tied for 17th in his debut at this event last year despite losing strokes on the greens. His 1.42 SG: approach per round ranked fifth among those who made the cut at TPC Craig Ranch in 2022. Kim tied for 23rd in last week's Wells Fargo Championship where he continued to lean on his strong iron play. If he can spark the putter, this is a field against which he can pick up his long-anticipated third PGA Tour win.

AT&T Byron Nelson key stats

• Strokes gained: approach
• SG: around-the-green
• SG: off-the-tee
• Proximity: 200-plus yards
• Birdie-or-better percentage

TPC Craig Ranch course profile

Par: 72
Length: 7,414 yards
Greens: Bentgrass
Architect: Tom Weiskopf

TPC Craig Ranch, designed by Tom Weiskopf, has hosted only the two most recent runnings of the AT&T Byron Nelson. As the winner of both events, it's no surprise that Lee is the field leader in true strokes gained at this venue. Seamus Power, Matsuyama, and Matt Kuchar also rank among the most successful of the two-time participants at this venue.

The course's main defense against scoring is Rowlett Creek, which crosses the course 14 times. However, that defense has been quite weak. The adjusted scoring average over the last two years has been 2.76 strokes below par with Lee shooting a combined minus-51 in his two victories. Fourteen golfers finished at least 20-under par last year and 18 broke 70 in all four rounds with 12 holes scoring under par.

The four par 5s yielded 82 eagles in last year's AT&T Byron Nelson. 

AT&T Byron Nelson info

When: Thursday, May 11 - Sunday, May 14
Where: TPC Craig Ranch, McKinney, Texas
Purse: $9.5 million
How to watch: Golf Channel, Peacock, CBS

Recent AT&T Byron Nelson winners

Here are our best sports betting apps:

• FanDuel: Bet $5, Get $150 in Bonus Bets | Read our FanDuel Review
• Caesars: Earn Up to a $1,250 Bet Credit | Read our Caesars Review
• DraftKings: Bet $5, Get $150 in Bonus Bets | Read our DraftKings Review
• PointsBet: Earn Five Second-Chance Bets Up to $50 Each | Read our PointsBet Review
• BetMGM: Get a Bonus Bet of Up to $1,000 | Read our BetMGM Review

(21+. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER)
* Bonuses not applicable in Ontario.

Related pages

• Best Sports Betting Sites | Best Sportsbook Promos (U.S. only)