USC vs. Michigan Predictions, Picks & Odds: Week 4
The Michigan Wolverines will welcome the USC Trojans to the Big Ten this week, and the defending national champions should prove as a stiff test for the new kids on the block.
Michigan isn't the same team that emerged from the College Football Playoff odds to win the national title, but it's still tough to take down at home.
USC may be ahead of the Wolverines by the Big Ten Championship odds, but they'll have a hard time covering the spread on Saturday.
We provided an additional look at this matchup with our USC vs. Michigan player props as part of our Week 4 college football predictions.
Best USC vs. Michigan picks
College football picks based on the odds from our best college football betting sites. Odds subject to change.
- Against the spread pick: Michigan +5.5 (-106 via FanDuel) vs. USC ⭐⭐
- Player prop pick: Zachariah Branch Under 47.5 receiving yards (-121 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
USC vs. Michigan against the spread prediction: Week 4
Michigan to cover the spread: +5.5 (-106) ⭐⭐
USC vs. Michigan opening odds:
- USC: -6.5 (-110 via BetMGM)
- Michigan: +6.5 (-110 via BetMGM)
Regarding these marquee games, it’s worth pointing out how much perception has changed. Michigan was favored by 10.5 points in the look-ahead market in the summer before Circa released USC -3 on Sunday.
The market has pushed this spread to as high as 6.5, though it seems unlikely to reach a full touchdown. But what do we make of all that movement?
Orji’s Opening Act
Anyone betting on the Wolverines has to believe in the quarterback change. After sitting behind Davis Warren for three weeks, Alex Orji was announced as the starter for the conference opener.
If the Wolverines succeed more with Orji under center, it will be because of his legs. He has averaged 5.8 yards per rushing attempt in three seasons with Michigan, including 86 yards on 15 carries last year.
But will USC just load up in the box? The Trojans have fared better against the run, ranking 17th in rushing success rate as a defense compared to a 121st pass success rate allowed.
Martindale Mayhem
Michigan defensive coordinator Wink Martindale, who was an NFL DC for three different franchises, loves to send the house. He’s blitz-happy and has a formidable Michigan defensive line to work with in his first season in Ann Arbor.
That is Michigan’s advantage in this matchup.
The Wolverines’ pass rush was halted in a 31-12 loss to the Texas Longhorns, but the Trojans’ offensive line isn’t nearly as stout. According to PFF, USC ranks 100th in the country in pass-blocking grade.
Michigan’s path to a cover is to grind this game out with its run game and rely on its defense to prevent big plays. It’s not the worst idea, though I’d need +6.5 to have more confidence in this bet. It’s actually Under or nothing for me on the main markets.
Best odds: -106 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 51.46%
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USC vs. Michigan prop pick for Week 4
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Zachariah Branch Under 47.5 receiving yards (-121) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
USC will get a proper introduction to Big Ten football. Gone are the days of flashy, explosive passing. This league is won in the trenches, especially in Ann Arbor.
That style doesn’t bode well for USC receiver Zachariah Branch, the team’s big-play receiver. He has eight catches for 75 yards through two games this season, averaging 37.5 yards per contest.
With a projection closer to the low 30s, there is value in betting this Under at Caesars. That shop has bumped Branch’s receiving line up from 42.5 and is now offering the highest line in the market, with FanDuel sitting at 44.5.
Best odds: -121 via Caesars | Implied probability: 54.75%
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USC vs. Michigan odds
See all of this week's college football odds and NCAAF scores.
USC vs. Michigan game info
- When: Saturday, Sept. 21
- Kickoff: 3:30 p.m. ET
- How to watch: CBS
- Weather: 82 degrees, 10% chance of precipitation, 7-mph NW winds
- Favorite: USC -6 (-105 via BetMGM)
College football betting odds pages
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