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Texas vs. Washington Prediction, Pick & Odds for College Football Playoff: Sugar Bowl

C Jackson Cowart

Last Updated: January 1, 2024 4:03 PM EST • 4 min 36 sec read.

The Washington Huskies or Texas Longhorns will advance to their first national championship in decades, and our Texas vs. Washington prediction for the Sugar Bowl is rooted in on the best college football odds at the college football betting sites.

In an entertaining Alamo Bowl last year, the Washington Huskies secured a touchdown victory against the Texas Longhorns. Now the Longhorns are favored in an exciting rematch entering Monday's Sugar Bowl, the second game of the College Football Playoff semifinals.  

Head coach Steve Sarkisian has created one of the most impressive resumes in college football during his three-year tenure at Texas (12-1), with a notable win against Alabama earlier this year. After losing to the Oklahoma Sooners in a thrilling Week 6 matchup, the Longhorns rebounded with seven straight victories. The winning run reached its peak with a statement 49-21 triumph over a ranked Oklahoma State team in the Big 12 final.

Meanwhile, Kalen DeBoer has been guiding Washington (13-0) to unprecedented heights, propelling it to 13 victories for the first time. Quarterback Michael Penix Jr. led the Huskies' record-setting offense, racking up 4,218 passing yards and 33 touchdowns, leading to a second-place finish in Heisman Trophy voting.    

To help fill out our New Year's Six predictions and as part of our look at all college bowl game odds, here is our best Texas vs. Washington prediction and our college football picks for Monday's Sugar Bowl in the College Football Playoff (odds via our best college football betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Also head over to our College Football Playoff expert picks, College Football Playoff player props, and College Football Playoff best bets.

Texas vs. Washington prediction: Sugar Bowl (College Football Playoff)

Washington +4.5 (-115 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

I'm not as bullish on this pick as I am with my Alabama vs. Michigan prediction, which earned one of my two five-star endorsements of bowl season. This wager carries a more modest four-star endorsement - though I'll be betting Washington to win this game for a variety of reasons.

Make no mistake: Texas was back this year, and QB Quinn Ewers played a key role in that. The former No. 1 overall prospect shook off a rough freshman season to throw for 3,161 yards and 21 touchdowns as a sophomore, leading Texas to wins in 10 of his 11 starts.

That said, he turned it over seven times in his final seven games and isn't far removed from an injury that cost him two starts. When he returned, top rusher Jonathon Brooks (1,139 yards, 10 TDs) went down for the year, and star wideout Xavier Worthy (969 yards, 5 TDs) suffered an ankle injury in the Big-12 title game.

Worthy is expected to be back for the Sugar Bowl, but he'll face a tough matchup against Huskies cornerback Jabbar Muhammad, who took over at times late in the year and helped shut down Oregon star Troy Franklin (34 yards) - a borderline first-round talent - in the Pac-12 Championship.

Washington's defense doesn't profile well on paper, though a loaded Pac-12 slate full of future NFL passers didn't help. The Huskies still managed to rank in the top 20 at preventing explosive plays and creating "havoc" plays in the secondary, with Muhammad (3 INTs, 10 PBUs) leading the way. Keep an eye on that matchup with the still-young Ewers in the biggest spot of his career.

The bigger mismatch in my view is the one between Penix and this overmatched Texas secondary, which ranked 86th at preventing explosive pass plays and 93rd in total passing yards allowed per game (240.8).

That's a major problem against one of the nation's best deep passers, whose special connection with NFL-bound receiver Rome Odunze (1,428 yards, 13 TDs) has powered the most prolific pass offense in the country. It doesn't help that safety Derek Williams Jr. will miss the first half after a targeting ejection in the Big-12 title game.

The best unit on the field might be the Longhorns' defensive line, anchored by future pros Byron Murphy and T'Vondre Sweat. Those two will make plays on Monday, and if Texas wins this matchup, you can be sure one of them will be at the center of it all.

Standing in their way, though, is a Washington offensive line that transformed midseason into one of the best units in the country - in pass protection and in the run game. That's helped spring free top rusher Dillon Johnson (1,113 yards, 14 TDs), who averaged 136.6 yards over his final five games.

It may sound cliched, but Washington really does have so many ways to beat you, which is how this team escaped an array of close games with a sterling 13-0 record. Those narrow margins cast doubt on the Huskies at times, but I watched this team go toe-to-toe twice with Oregon, which was built as well as any team in the country on both sides of the ball.

As much credit as Sarkisian deserves for Texas' resurgence, I'm not sure I'd want to be on the other side of a DeBoer-coached team with a month to prepare. There's value on the moneyline (+158 via bet365), which I'm betting in addition to this market-high spread of +4.5 at FanDuel.

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Texas vs. Washington best odds

FanDuel (-115)

DraftKingsFanDuelBetMGMCaesarsbet365
Washington +4Washington +4.5Washington +4Washington +4Washington +4
-110-115-110-110-110

Four of our five best sports betting sites are dealing the Huskies as 4-point underdogs for Monday's Sugar Bowl. Only one is trading Washington +4.5, which is the best price we've seen since this game opened.

That book is FanDuel, which tends to be an outlier whenever one exists. I'd still recommend checking out our best sportsbook promos to get the best bonus offer available from FanDuel or another book.

Editor's note: Get ready for the launch of Vermont sports betting with our best Vermont sportsbook promos, and be sure to download the best Vermont sports betting apps! 21+ and present in VT. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Texas vs. Washington odds

Texas vs. Washington odds analysis

This game opened with the Longhorns favored by anywhere from 3.5 to 4.5 points across our best sports betting apps, and the line has settled around 4 at most shops. We're targeting the rogue +4.5 at FanDuel, which feels like too much value on one of the nation's lone undefeated teams.

The total opened at 62.5 but is now trading at a near-consensus 63.5 across our best sportsbooks. The lone outlier, of course, is FanDuel, which is still hanging a line of 62.5. We'd recommend always checking there first when shopping around for the best price.

College Football Playoff - Sugar Bowl game info

  • When: Monday, Jan. 1 at 8:45 p.m. ET
  • Where: Caesars Superdome, New Orleans, LA
  • How to watch: ESPN
  • Weather: Indoors

Texas-Washington prediction made Thursday at 11:30 p.m. ET.

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Written By:
C Jackson Cowart
C Jackson Cowart is a publishing editor and lead writer for Sportsbook Review. An award-winning writer, reporter, and editor with a decade of sports media experience, "C-Jax" has worked with ESPN, Forbes, theScore, and various daily newspapers before joining the Sportsbook Review team. He's a proud graduate of the University of North Carolina, where he served as a beat writer for the Tar Heels' championship run through the NCAA men's basketball tournament in 2017. Jackson has spent the last five years covering sports betting as a predictive analyst, features writer, and industry reporter. Since joining the team in 2023, he's played a key role in Sportsbook Review's coverage of the Super Bowl, March Madness, and NBA playoffs while serving as the lead writer for the growing WNBA and NASCAR betting scenes. Though he's cashed some big bets over the years -- including Lamar Jackson to win MVP (twice) -- he's still haunted by enough second-place bet slips to wallpaper his home office. While Jackson is a committed "process over results" bettor with a keen eye for advanced stats and subtle bias in futures markets, he also embraces sports betting as a vehicle for entertainment and personal investment. He's written about everything from hot dogs to groundhogs and still hasn't forgiven his "inside source" for a sabotaged bet on the Gatorade color in Super Bowl LV.