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College Football Player Props & Best Bets, Odds for New Year's Day: Top CFP Predictions

Mike Spector

Last Updated: January 1, 2024 3:38 PM EST • 4 min 58 sec read.

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College football best bets

New Year's Day comes with five college football bowl games, but the focus will be on the two late College Football Playoff contests, and we offer our top player props and best bets for Monday's CFP bowl games based on the best NCAAF odds.

Controversy began when the College Football Playoff matchups were released, as Florida State became the first undefeated Power Five conference champion not to be featured.

However, putting in Alabama for the Seminoles will lead to must-watch television as the Crimson Tide clash with the No. 1 Michigan Wolverines. Alabama seeks to take the first step toward an SEC team taking the national championship for the fifth straight campaign.

In the alternative matchup, Texas or Washington will secure its inaugural victory in the College Football Playoff, setting the stage for an entertaining clash between two of the country's top 10 offenses in total yards.   

As part of our look at all college bowl game odds, here are our college football player props and best bets for Monday's College Football Playoff slate (odds via our best college football betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

College Football Playoff best bets for Monday

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College Football Playoff schedule and odds for Monday

(Odds via DraftKings)

College Football Playoff player props picks for Monday

J.J. McCarthy Under 189.5 passing yards vs. Alabama (-115 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐

We have the utmost confidence in Alabama's defense holding McCarthy to one or fewer passing touchdowns, but the odds are so egregious (DraftKings has -200 odds for the Under of 1.5 passing touchdowns) that we were forced to fade McCarthy in a different area.

Thus, we are making the Under on his passing yards a three-star play, as he has not come close to this total over the last month, topping out at 148 passing yards in the team's final four games.

McCarthy's downturn has seemingly coincided with Michigan football analyst Connor Stalion's resignation. In the eight games before Stalions resigned, McCarthy completed 78.1% of his passes and averaged 225 passing yards per game while posting an 18-3 TD-INT ratio. In the five games after Stalions resigned, McCarthy has completed 68.6% of his passes and averaged 166 yards per game while posting a 1-1 TD-INT ratio.

Leading receiver Roman Wilson has one catch in two of the last three games, and add in that the Crimson Tide defense ranks 12th in the country with 38 sacks, and all of that leads to another unproductive day for McCarthy. 

DraftKings and bet365 offer the best price of any of our best sports betting apps that have an O/U of 189.5 (down from an opening number of 190.5), and each has a better number than FanDuel, which is much lower at 185.5.

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Adonia Mitchell Over 60.5 receiving yards vs. Washington (-114 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Texas's Adonai Mitchell is second on the team in receptions and receiving yards. However, recent injuries to two of the Longhorns' most explosive skill players suggest that Mitchell should go off in the semifinals.

Texas has been without leading rusher Jonathan Brooks for the last three games after he tore his ACL, and outside of a 100-yard rushing game against Iowa State, backup running back CJ Baxter has just 88 yards on 22 carries in two other starts.

Thus, we expect head coach Steve Sarkisian to attack his former team and its 121st-ranked pass defense a lot through the air, but Mitchell could be the primary focus of the passing game, as leading receiver Xavier Worthy said his ankle is not 100% healthy.

Mitchell had 61-plus yards receiving in three of the team's previous five games. And in one of the two games when he fell short of that mark, quarterback Quinn Ewers attempted just 26 passes, his lowest number of attempts in the last seven games, as the team blew out Texas Tech 57-7.

We expect a much closer game against Washington, and the Huskies allowed seven receivers to go for 61 or more yards receiving in the five games against AP-ranked opponents this year. However, just two of those opponents (Oregon and USC) had more prolific passing attacks than Texas this season.

All of our best sports betting sites are in unison with the O/U of 60.5, but FanDuel charges the lowest price, as the odds to back the Over are as high as -117 at Caesars.

College Football Playoff game picks for Monday

Alabama-Michigan Under 45 (-110 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

The amount of love that the general public has shown Alabama from a point-spread perspective has us nervous to back the Crimson Tide. However, we do expect both defenses to dominate in what should be a low-scoring affair.

Alabama scored 27 points against Georgia in the SEC Championship Game. Still, it converted just 3-of-13 third downs and averaged 2.8 yards per carry against a Bulldogs defense that entered the game ranked 88th in rushing explosiveness.

Meanwhile, when you give Nick Saban time to prepare, he usually dials up an elite defensive game plan. In the Crimson Tide's last six playoff appearances, they have held teams to seven or fewer points four times in the semifinal game.

Michigan's offense entered the Big Ten Championship against Iowa ranked 37th in rush success and 57th in line yards, and if it can't open running lanes for Blake Corum & Co., the passing game should not be expected to carry the offense against a defense that has at least four likely future first-round NFL draft picks.

Under backers have their choice of several of our best sportsbooks, as only FanDuel differs from the rest with an O/U slightly lower at 44.5.

Washington team total Under 29.5 vs. Texas (-115 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐

Washington proved oddsmakers wrong in beating Oregon as a 9.5-point underdog in the Pac-12 Championship to earn its spot in the playoffs. And though we have all the respect in the world for Heisman runner-up Michael Penix Jr. and the Huskies' top-ranked passing attack (343.8 yards per game), Washington has not seen a defensive front like Texas's all season, and we expect that unit to be a game-wrecker.

Texas should be able to neutralize Washington's running attack, as it allows the fewest yards per carry between the tackles of any Division I team. In addition, the Longhorns rank in the top five in red-zone defense and the top two in third-down defense.

Many will point to Texas's 95th-ranked secondary as the reason its defense will be exploited in this game. However, as College Football Nerds pointed out, Texas faced a high volume of passing thanks to its stout run defense, and despite facing two top-10 passing offenses on its schedule, the Longhorns rank 31st in yards per attempt and 15th in opponent-adjusted yards per attempt.

The Under has cashed in eight of the Longhorns' 12 games this season and is 6-0 in Washington's last six neutral-site games. Thus, we expect the Texas defense to do its part in ensuring those trends continue.

Caesars and bet365 charge -125 or more juice to back team totals of at least 30.5 points, so we prefer FanDuel’s and DraftKings’ -115 odds to back the Huskies’ team total Under of 29.5.

College football best bets made Saturday at 10:32 a.m. ET.

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Written By:
Mike Spector
Mike started in the sports writing industry in July 2019, and gained a lot of followers in his first year after finishing with the No. 2 overall record in an annual NFL betting competition, which made picks against the spread, and from an Over/Under and moneyline perspective. Mike is an avid fan of the NFL, MLB, tennis, and all college sports. In his opinion, March Madness is the best sporting event there is, and he's especially euphoric starting with conference tournament time in college basketball. Mike's a big advocate of "fading the public" and making plays that are contrarian, constantly citing that "there are reasons why they have those big shiny buildings in Las Vegas." When making wagers, Mike always scours the best odds at all of the major sports betting sites, where he mostly sifts through DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, and bet365. He's tried several others and is of the firm belief that bettors should not just stick to one sportsbook, as there is always likely better value to be had with the same wager. In addition, while Mike received his undergraduate degree from Villanova University, he has no issue betting against the Wildcats when it comes to college basketball wagering, and suggests other bettors should always put their “head” before their “hearts.”