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College Football Playoff Expert Picks for New Year's Day

Mike Spector

Last Updated: January 1, 2024 3:36 PM EST • 4 min 23 sec read.

Four squads will be pushing for two berths in the 2024 College Football Championship, and we’re rounding up our college football playoff expert picks for New Year’s Day based on the best NCAAF odds.

The College Football Playoff semifinals will start on Monday.

The Alabama Crimson Tide and Michigan Wolverines clash in the Rose Bowl at 5 p.m. ET to begin the playoff, with the winner moving on to the CFP National Championship Game.

The Texas Longhorns and Washington Huskies battle in the Sugar Bowl for the other championship game berth. The night game gets underway at 8:45 p.m. ET.

Both games feature razor-close spreads, but our experts have scoured the betting markets to bring you the best plays from both contests.

As part of our New Year’s Six predictions and our look at all college bowl game odds, here are our best college football playoff expert picks for New Year’s Day (odds via our best college football betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

College Football Playoff schedule 

(Odds via Caesars)

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College Football Playoff expert picks

GameMike SpectorPhil WoodBrenden Schaeffer
Alabama vs. Michigan spreadAlabama +1.5 (-105 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐Michigan -1.5 (-110 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐Alabama +2 (-110 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Alabama vs. Michigan totalUnder 45 (-110 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐Under 45 (-110 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐Over 44.5 (-112 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐
Alabama vs. Michigan player propJ.J. McCarthy Under 189.5 passing yards (-115 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐JJ McCarthy Under 189.5 passing yards (-115 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐Jalen Milroe Over 32.5 rushing yards (-114 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐
Texas vs. Washington spreadTexas -4 (-110 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐Texas -4 (-110 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐Washington +4.5 (-115 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Texas vs. Washington totalUnder 64 (-110 via BetRivers) ⭐⭐⭐Over 62.5 (-115 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐Over 62.5 (-115 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Texas vs. Washington player propAdonai Mitchell Over 60.5 receiving yards (-114 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐Michael Penix Jr. Over 309.5 passing yards (-114 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐Quinn Ewers Over 287.5 passing yards (-114 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

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College Football Playoff top picks

Adonai Mitchell Over 60.5 receiving yards (-114 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Texas’ Adonai Mitchell is second on the team in receptions and receiving yards. However, recent injuries to two of the Longhorns’ most explosive skill players suggest that Mitchell should go off in the semifinals.

Texas has been without leading rusher Jonathan Brooks for the last three games after he tore his ACL in a win in November, and outside of a 100-yard rushing game against Iowa State, backup running back CJ Baxter has just 88 yards on 22 carries in two other starts.

Thus, we expect head coach Steve Sarkisian to attack his former team and its 121st-ranked pass defense a lot through the air, but Mitchell could be the primary focus of the passing game, as leading receiver Xavier Worthy said his ankle is not 100% healthy. 

Mitchell had 61-plus yards receiving in three of the team’s previous five games. In one of the two games when he fell short of that mark, quarterback Quinn Ewers attempted just 26 passes, his lowest number of attempts in the last seven games, as the team blew out Texas Tech 57-7.

We expect a much closer game against Washington, and the Huskies allowed seven receivers to go for 61 or more yards receiving in the five games against AP-ranked opponents this year. However, just two of those opponents (Oregon and USC) had more prolific passing attacks than Texas this season.

All of our best sports betting apps are in unison with the O/U of 60.5, but FanDuel charges the lowest price, as the odds to back the Over are as high as -117 at Caesars.

–– Mike Spector (SBR | Twitter/X)

JJ McCarthy Under 189.5 passing yards (-115 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

The Wolverines had a very easy schedule to begin the year, and quarterback JJ McCarthy took advantage of it, as he threw for over 200 yards in seven of his first nine games. However, as the schedule got more difficult, McCarthy’s numbers bottomed. In his last four games, three of which were against Top 25 teams, he hasn’t thrown for more than 150 yards once.

The Crimson Tide rank 27th in the country in passing yards allowed per game, as they’re allowing fewer than 200 per game this season. Though McCarthy does have a 200-yard game in him, the Wolverines have focused much more on the rushing attack than the passing attack when they face good teams this season. Even if they fall behind the Crimson Tide, it’s unlikely McCarthy will throw for his highest total in five games against a very good pass defense.

This prop is available at just three of our best sports betting sites. FanDuel has the total set at 184.5 and is asking -114 for the Over and the Under. If you’re considering the Over, play it there. If you’re on the Under like we are, then bet365 and DraftKings are both asking -115.

–– Phil Wood (SBR | Twitter/X)

Quinn Ewers Over 287.5 passing yards (-114 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

We could be setting up for a genuine shootout in the Sugar Bowl between Texas and Washington, as both offenses have been explosive throughout the year, ranking inside the top 10 in total offense nationally. Of all the potentially gaudy player prop lines to target in this matchup, I like the passing line for Longhorns quarterback Quinn Ewers the most.

Though both passing offenses are capable, Texas has the advantage of facing one of the worst pass defenses in the country. Washington has allowed an average of 263.2 passing yards per game, which ranks 121st out of 133 FBS teams.

DraftKings and bet365 list the Ewers' passing yards total at 288.5 yards with -115 odds on Over. Bettors can find a slightly more favorable line at FanDuel, at which Ewers’ passing total is 287.5 with -114 odds on Over.

This is a passing mark Ewers has cleared six times this season. Given the ease of the matchup and the notion that Michael Penix Jr. on the other side will certainly push Ewers to keep pace, I like gunslinging sophomore to get there in this national semifinal matchup. 

–– Brenden Schaeffer (SBR | Twitter/X)

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Written By:
Mike Spector
Mike started in the sports writing industry in July 2019, and gained a lot of followers in his first year after finishing with the No. 2 overall record in an annual NFL betting competition, which made picks against the spread, and from an Over/Under and moneyline perspective. Mike is an avid fan of the NFL, MLB, tennis, and all college sports. In his opinion, March Madness is the best sporting event there is, and he's especially euphoric starting with conference tournament time in college basketball. Mike's a big advocate of "fading the public" and making plays that are contrarian, constantly citing that "there are reasons why they have those big shiny buildings in Las Vegas." When making wagers, Mike always scours the best odds at all of the major sports betting sites, where he mostly sifts through DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, and bet365. He's tried several others and is of the firm belief that bettors should not just stick to one sportsbook, as there is always likely better value to be had with the same wager. In addition, while Mike received his undergraduate degree from Villanova University, he has no issue betting against the Wildcats when it comes to college basketball wagering, and suggests other bettors should always put their “head” before their “hearts.”