Notre Dame vs. Texas A&M Prediction, Picks & Odds: Week 1

The Aggies are slim home favorites against the Fighting Irish in this highly anticipated top-25 clash.

Mike Spector

Last Updated: August 31, 2024 10:00 AM EDT • 5 minute read

Texas A&M Aggies quarterback Conner Weigman (15) greets teammate wide receiver Noah Thomas (3) as we offer our best Notre Dame vs. Texas A&M prediction for Week 1. — Texas A&M Aggies quarterback Conner Weigman (15) greets teammate wide receiver Noah Thomas (3) at Kyle Field. Photo by Maria Lysaker / USA TODAY Sports via Imagn.

The Notre Dame Fighting Irish and Texas A&M Aggies play the second of two top-25 matchups on Saturday at 7:30 p.m. ET, as we offer our Notre Dame vs. Texas A&M prediction for the spread and our best player prop.

Mike Elko takes over for Jimbo Fisher as the Aggies' head coach, and he has plenty of familiarity with his opponent. Elko not only was Notre Dame’s defensive coordinator in 2017, but he coached against the Fighting Irish last year as Duke’s head coach - a game Notre Dame won 21-14.

Elko’s starting quarterback in that matchup was Riley Leonard, who is now under center for Notre Dame. Whose college football championship odds will take a massive boost with a victory in Week 1?

Best Notre Dame vs. Texas A&M picks

College football picks based on the odds from our best college football betting sites. Odds subject to change.

Game pick: Texas A&M -2.5 (-122 via FanDuel) vs. Notre Dame ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Player prop: Noah Thomas anytime touchdown scorer (+265 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐

Notre Dame vs. Texas A&M prediction: Week 1

Texas A&M -2.5 (-122) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

As recently as Aug. 11, Texas A&M could have been had as one-point underdogs at DraftKings in front of one of the most rabid home environments in college football.

Not only did sharps move the line as high as Texas A&M -3 at most of our best sports betting sites, but an under-the-radar injury also has me backing the Aggies.

Notre Dame was never going to be as formidable as it was on the left side of the offensive line after Joe Alt was taken with the fifth pick of April's draft. But Alt’s replacement, Charles Jagusah, was lost for the year with a pectoral injury.

Kyle Field is not a place you want to play with a third-string left tackle - especially with a quarterback coming off a major injury.

Riley Leonard shaking off rust

I also do not expect dual-threat quarterback Riley Leonard to do as much running as we will see later in the year, as this is his first game action since undergoing a second surgery on the ankle he injured last year.

The -122 odds are a hefty price to pay for a traditional point spread, but the half-point difference between what FanDuel is offering and all the other shops at -3 is the biggest advantage one can get in football betting.

If the Aggies take care of business at home, a winning $10 wager pays out $8.20 in profit.

Best odds: -122 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 54.95%

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Notre Dame vs. Texas A&M player prop

Noah Thomas anytime touchdown scorer (+265) ⭐⭐⭐

Aggies wide receiver Noah Thomas is the epitome of a red-zone target with his 6-foot-6 frame.

He was certainly Connor Weigman’s favorite target close to the end zone before he suffered a season-ending foot injury in Week 4. Four of Thomas’s five touchdowns on the season came in the first two weeks when Weigman was under center.

With Notre Dame likely using shut-down cornerback Benjamin Morrison - PFF’s No. 2 returning cornerback who has the highest single-coverage grade among all Power Five corners - in shadow coverage on smaller receivers, look for new Aggies offensive coordinator Collin Klein to take advantage of Thomas’s size early and often.

There is no reason Thomas should be the sixth-ranked Aggies player on the anytime touchdown odds leaderboard. Thomas backers are getting great value with DraftKings’ +265 odds, considering he has as high as a 33.33% implied probability to find the end zone based on the +200 odds via bet365.

I am risking $10 with the hopes of returning a $26.50 profit.

Best odds: +265 via DraftKings | Implied probability: 27.40%

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Notre Dame vs. Texas A&M odds

See all of this week's college football odds and NCAAF scores.

Notre Dame vs. Texas A&M game info

When: Saturday, Aug. 31
Kickoff: 7:30 p.m. ET
Where: Kyle Field (College Station, Texas)
How to watch: ABC/ESPN+
Weather: 85 degrees, 2% chance of precipitation, wind 6 mph NE
Favorite: Texas A&M -3 (-110 via DraftKings)

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Written by:
Mike Spector

Mike started in the sports writing industry in July 2019, and gained a lot of followers in his first year after finishing with the No. 2 overall record in an annual NFL betting competition, which made picks against the spread, and from an Over/Under and moneyline perspective. Mike is an avid fan of the NFL, MLB, tennis, and all college sports. In his opinion, March Madness is the best sporting event there is, and he's especially euphoric starting with conference tournament time in college basketball. Mike's a big advocate of "fading the public" and making plays that are contrarian, constantly citing that "there are reasons why they have those big shiny buildings in Las Vegas." When making wagers, Mike always scours the best odds at all of the major sports betting sites, where he mostly sifts through DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, and bet365. He's tried several others and is of the firm belief that bettors should not just stick to one sportsbook, as there is always likely better value to be had with the same wager. In addition, while Mike received his undergraduate degree from Villanova University, he has no issue betting against the Wildcats when it comes to college basketball wagering, and suggests other bettors should always put their “head” before their “hearts.”