College Football Upset Picks, Predictions Week 4: 3 Underdogs to Bet This Week

Mike Spector

Last Updated: September 19, 2024 11:40 AM EDT • 4 min 26 sec read. Twitter link Google News Link

Oklahoma State quarterback Alan Bowman warms up before an NCAA football game between Oklahoma State and Tulsa as we look at our college football upset picks.. — Oklahoma State quarterback Alan Bowman warms up before an NCAA football game between Oklahoma State and Tulsa. Photo by Nathan J. Fish/ The Oklahoman/USA Today Network via Imagn Images.

For the first time in this college football season, an AP top-10 team didn't fall victim to an upset last week. But there were still plenty of surprising results that may shake up the College Football Playoff odds landscape.

Group of Five schools produced the most significant wave of upsets in Week 3, and we salvaged a respectable day with Memphis’ upset of Florida State as +215 ‘dogs in our college football upset picks last week. UNLV also beat Kansas, Georgia State upset Vanderbilt, and Toledo notched a 24-point win over the SEC's Mississippi State.

One of the most intriguing results was Kentucky’s near colossal upset of then-No. 1 Georgia (the Bulldogs fell to No. 2 in the AP poll this week). The Bulldogs hung on for a gutsy 13-12 victory as 21.5-point favorites to extend their regular-season winning streak to 42 games.

Elsewhere, Florida State is a small favorite against California in Week 4. It's looking to avoid joining Utah from 2000 as the only teams over the last 34 years to lose the first four games of a season after being favorites in each one.

College football upset picks: Week 4

College football odds as of Thursday and subject to change. Track the college football scores for the latest line movement and matchup info.

Arkansas (+135 via BetMGM) at Auburn ⭐⭐⭐
Rutgers (+140 via DraftKings) at Virginia Tech ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Oklahoma State (+110 via BetMGM) vs. Utah ⭐⭐⭐

Week 4 upset predictions

College football picks made Thursday; odds subject to change. Our NEW college football player prop odds tool can help you find the best odds on any market across legal sportsbooks in your area!

Arkansas (+135) ⭐⭐⭐

Auburn has dominated the head-to-head series with Arkansas recently, winning seven of the previous eight meetings. But the Razorbacks’ lone win in that span was at Jordan-Hare Stadium, and they possess the necessary physical running game to take the raucous home crowd out of the equation.

Arkansas had no business losing on the road at then-No. 16 Oklahoma State two weeks ago. It outgained the Cowboys 648-385, converted 11-of-19 third-down opportunities, and won the time-of-possession battle by more than 12 minutes.

The Razorbacks' defense entered last week ranked in the top 10 in EPA per rush, yards per rush, and rushing success rate. They followed that up with holding UAB to 3.4 yards per carry and outgaining the Blazers by 247 yards on the ground.

The Razorbacks are getting a 44.25% chance of pulling off the upset based on FanDuel’s +126 odds. But the best return on our investment is at BetMGM, where a winning $10 wager would net $13.50 in profits.

Best odds: +135 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 42.55%

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Rutgers (+140) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Rutgers has played one of the easiest schedules in the country to this point, out-scoring Howard and Akron by 69 combined points.

However, that's allowed the Scarlet Knights to gel under head coach Greg Schiano, and the offensive line in particular comes into this week with confidence while ranking first in the FBS in havoc allowed. Of course, it's easy to prevent havoc and prevent opposing teams from living in your backfield when you average 6.8 yards per carry like the Scarlet Knights.

Rutgers enjoyed a bye week to prepare for this matchup, and that leads to a significant edge for the underdogs, especially given Schiano’s 17-8-1 ATS record after a bye.

Meanwhile, Virginia Tech is one of the most experienced teams in the country and boasts 21 returning starters. But it inexplicably lost to Vanderbilt in Week 1, and followed that up with a 40% Offensive Success Rate in an uninspiring 17-point home win over Marshall as 20.5-point favorites.

Virginia Tech did cover for the first time last week in a 20-point road win at Old Dominion. But this Rutgers squad will bring a whole different level of physicality that the Hokies haven't seen yet.

This is a three-star play, as Hokies quarterback Kyron Drones completed just 59.4% of his pass attempts and ran for only 3.4 yards per carry in a 35-16 loss at Rutgers last year. I don't expect the change of venue to make the difference this year.

All of our best sports betting sites are in unison with +140 moneyline odds, through which a winning $10 wager would pay out $24 as part of your college football Week 4 predictions.

Best odds: +140 via DraftKings | Implied probability: 41.67%

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Oklahoma State (+110) ⭐⭐⭐

This week’s Utah-Oklahoma State matchup is a potential conference preview, as it's a meeting between two of the four teams with at least a 10% chance of winning the conference, per ESPN Analytics. Both sit among the top three in the Big 12 championship odds.

Oklahoma State is 3-0 despite last year’s Doak Walker Award winner Ollie Gordon II averaging just 72 rushing yards per game and 3.5 yards per carry. But quarterback Alan Bowman has put the team on his back throughout Gordon’s struggles, ranking 23rd among all FBS quarterbacks in QBR (79.6) and averaging over 322 passing yards per game while posting an 8:2 touchdown-to-interception ratio.

Utah’s physical defense will likely stack the box against Gordon. But there's enough confidence in Bowman’s arm to pull off the home upset. The Cowboys are also an impressive 9-1 straight in their last 10 games as home underdogs under head coach Mike Gundy since 2016.

Oklahoma State has already moved to -102 (carrying a 50.50% implied probability) at FanDuel. So I'm taking advantage of the best plus-money odds while I still can, and hoping to net $11 in profit with my $10 wager.

Best odds: +110 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 47.62%

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Written By:
Mike Spector

Mike started in the sports writing industry in July 2019, and gained a lot of followers in his first year after finishing with the No. 2 overall record in an annual NFL betting competition, which made picks against the spread, and from an Over/Under and moneyline perspective. Mike is an avid fan of the NFL, MLB, tennis, and all college sports. In his opinion, March Madness is the best sporting event there is, and he's especially euphoric starting with conference tournament time in college basketball. Mike's a big advocate of "fading the public" and making plays that are contrarian, constantly citing that "there are reasons why they have those big shiny buildings in Las Vegas." When making wagers, Mike always scours the best odds at all of the major sports betting sites, where he mostly sifts through DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, and bet365. He's tried several others and is of the firm belief that bettors should not just stick to one sportsbook, as there is always likely better value to be had with the same wager. In addition, while Mike received his undergraduate degree from Villanova University, he has no issue betting against the Wildcats when it comes to college basketball wagering, and suggests other bettors should always put their “head” before their “hearts.”