College Football Upset Picks, Predictions Week 3: 3 Underdogs to Bet This Week
For the third week in a row, some historic upsets have taken place in college football, as an AP top-10 team has lost to an unranked team each week.
Then-No. 5 Notre Dame became the latest victim of a huge college football upset, losing 16-14 at home to Northern Illinois as a 29-point favorite. It was the Huskies’ first win in 15 games all-time against top-10 opponents and was the largest upset point spread-wise in any game since 2021. With the loss, Notre Dame to 51-2 when favored by 25-plus points since 1978, per ESPN Stats & Info.
Those who followed my college football upset picks last week profited 1.75 units as Army and Iowa State beat Florida Atlantic and Iowa outright. As part of our Week 3 college football predictions, we look at who makes my list for my Week 3 college football upset picks.
College football upset picks: Week 3
College football odds as of Thursday and subject to change. Track the college football scores for the latest line movement and matchup info.
- Memphis (+215 via Caesars) at Florida State ⭐⭐⭐
- South Carolina (+225 via FanDuel) vs. LSU ⭐⭐⭐
- Rice (+160 via BetMGM) at Houston ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Week 3 upset predictions
College football picks made Thursday; odds subject to change. Our NEW college football player prop odds tool can help you find the best odds on any market across legal sportsbooks in your area!
Memphis (+215) ⭐⭐⭐
Florida State lost back-to-back games as a double-digit favorite to unranked opponents to start the season. It's the first team to go from top-10 to unranked in the first regular-season poll since the rankings expanded to 25 teams in 1989.
The Seminoles welcome head coach Mike Norvell’s former team in Memphis, and the Tigers should be plenty familiar with his coaching tendencies. Memphis has a clear advantage at quarterback, as Seth Hanigan finished in the top 10 nationally in EPA (min. 100 pass attempts). At the same time, Florida State’s DJ Uiagalelei has completed fewer than half of his passes and has been off target on two-thirds of his throws of 10-plus air yards this season.
The Seminoles' offensive line has been dreadful in pass protection, allowing pressures on more than 40% of dropbacks, and Memphis has won the turnover battle in both games played this season.
The point spread ballooned at most of our best sports betting sites from Florida State -5.5 to -7.5, but the fact that it has since come back down through the key number of seven and landed at -6.5 suggests many bettors feel as strongly about Memphis as underdogs as I do.
Caesars is one of the only sportsbooks offering moneyline odds better than +200, so I am placing my $10 wager there in the hopes of returning $21.50 in profits.
Best odds: +215 via Caesars | Implied probability: 31.75%
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South Carolina (+225) ⭐⭐⭐
South Carolina is trying to avoid the “Curse of College Gameday,” as the two host schools (Texas A&M and Michigan) have lost in back-to-back weeks when the show comes to their campuses. While LSU has won seven consecutive games in this rivalry, the Gamecocks have proven through two weeks that they will not be a pushover in the SEC.
South Carolina’s defense has been its strongest unit, ranking 12th in Havoc. The Gamecocks held Kentucky to 183 total yards (their 44 passing yards allowed were their fewest in a game since 2021) in a dominant 31-6 road upset, and they have been opportunistic with four interceptions through two games.
Meanwhile, despite returning four starters on the offensive line, LSU could only muster three yards per carry against FCS-level Nicholls.
The shortest moneyline odds at competing sportsbooks is +200 at DraftKings, so the +225 price at FanDuel is excellent value in comparison, as a $10 winning wager would pay out $32.50 as opposed to $30 at DraftKings.
Best odds: +225 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 30.77%
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Rice (+160) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Houston nearly joined Northern Illinois in pulling off a shocker of a top-15 opponent, as it fell just short in a 16-12 loss to Oklahoma. But while the Cougars held the Sooners to their lowest offensive output (249 yards) since 2022, Oklahoma’s offensive line deserves more blame than Houston’s defense deserves credit.
The Cougars took advantage of a Sooners offensive line without two starters, Branson Hickman and Geirean Hatchett. Their replacements made their first career starts at center and right tackle, respectively.
Rice is no pushover, having made bowl games in back-to-back years for the first time since 2013-14 and returning 15 starters from last year’s team. But perhaps the biggest addition was Temple transfer E.J. Warner at quarterback, who ranked second in career passing yards and passing touchdowns in conference games among returning quarterbacks.
If he plays more like the quarterback who finished with a 66.7 QBR last week compared to a 15.8 QBR in a Week 1 loss, the Owls will have a great chance to pull the upset.
This is a sharper line than the others, as Bet365 also offers the same +160 odds. But that price is still 10 cents better than the +150 offered at FanDuel, and I am making my $10 wager at BetMGM to turn that into a $26 payout with an Owls upset.
Best odds: +160 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 38.46%
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