SEC Predictions, Odds & Best Bets Week 3
The AP poll may want to think about renaming itself to the Southeastern Conference poll, as six of the top seven teams in the top 25 are from the SEC.
SEC league play got underway last week, and South Carolina’s 25-point road upset of Kentucky as 9.5-point underdogs is an indication of what the conference is in for this season. In non-conference action, SEC teams also won both ranked vs. ranked matchups, as Texas dominated Michigan in the Big House, while Tennessee won a neutral-site game against NC State.
My SEC predictions for Week 3 look at one of the three league games this week. I'm also featuring a player prop for one of the conference’s leading candidates in the Heisman Trophy odds.
SEC best bets: Week 3
College football odds as of Friday and subject to change. Track the college football scores for the latest line movement and matchup info.
- South Carolina +4.5 first-half spread (-122 via FanDuel) vs. LSU ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Jalen Milroe Over 49.5 rushing yards (+115 via DraftKings) vs. Wisconsin ⭐⭐⭐
- Jaydon Blue Under 81.5 rushing yards (-115 via bet365) vs. UTSA ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Best SEC predictions this week
College football picks made Friday; odds subject to change. Our NEW college football player prop odds tool can help you find the best odds on any market across legal sportsbooks in your area!
South Carolina +4.5 first half spread (-122) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
South Carolina committed eight penalties, possessed the ball for five fewer minutes, and totaled 79 rushing yards on 2.3 yards per carry last week. Yet the Gamecocks still beat Kentucky 31-6 on the road.
That's a testament to their third-down defense, as they held the Wildcats to 3-of-14 on third down. An opportunistic defense also notched a pick-6, and the pass rush recorded five sacks and 11 tackles for loss.
LSU is 0-4 in its last four September games, and the Tigers don't project to be able to push around the Gamecocks after averaging three yards per carry against FCS-level Nicholls last week.
I would play South Carolina at anything +3.5 or better for the first half. That's exactly where all the other best sportsbooks are at the moment, making FanDuel’s 4.5-point spread all the more enticing. A winning $10 wager would pay out $18.20.
Shane Jackson is eyeing LaNorris Sellers too as part of his LSU vs. South Carolina prediction.
Best odds: -122 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 54.95%
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Jalen Milroe Over 49.5 rushing yards (+115) ⭐⭐⭐
Alabama quarterback Jalen Milroe faces a Wisconsin pass defense that's allowed 165 passing yards through two games to Western Michigan and South Dakota. It'll be a tough matchup from that perspective as the Crimson Tide attempt to climb the SEC championship odds further.
While the Crimson Tide's receivers bring a whole new level of athleticism that the Badgers' secondary has not seen yet, wind is supposed to gust over 11 mph during the contest, which should put an emphasis on the running game.
However, Shane Jackson is still targeting one of those pass-catchers in his college football player props for Week 3.
Wisconsin faced two of the Big Ten’s top-five rushing quarterbacks last season (outside of its own Tanner Mordecai), and Gavin Wimsatt and Luke Altmyer ran for 43 and 100 yards, respectively. Milroe has run for 79-plus yards in three of his last six regular-season games, including two 100-plus-yard rushing performances in that span.
So while I would not put anyone off going up the ladder with DraftKings’ alternate rushing yard totals of 60-plus (+205) and 70-plus (+340), I'll gladly take the plus-money odds at DraftKings. Caesars and bet365 are posting a closely aligned O/U of 45.5 (the Over is juiced to -118 at Caesars).
A $10 winning wager at DraftKings would return $11.50 in profits as part of our college football Week 3 predictions.
Best odds: +115 via DraftKings | Implied probability: 46.51%
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Jaydon Blue Under 81.5 rushing yards (-115) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Because of game flow (Texas has posted a plus-70 point differential through three quarters in its first two games) and wanting to keep its running backs fresh, Texas has used five running backs this season. Three have carried the ball 13-plus times.
Jaydon Blue is one of those running backs, with his 20 rushing attempts tied for the team-high. But because an injury Blue suffered last week that caused him to be in a walking boot postgame, I expect true freshman Jerrick Gibson to get the majority of the carries early this week.
Gibson’s 103 rushing yards, two rushing touchdowns, and nine first downs all lead the team through his first two career games. Meanwhile, his 44 yards after contact ranks second.
He's a budding star, and I would look into backing the Over on his rushing total when it becomes available. But for now, fading Blue follows similar logic.
This Under at Caesars is juiced to -118, so the best place to return maximize value is at bet365, where a $10 winning wager would pay out $18.70.
Best odds: -115 via bet365 | Implied probability: 53.49%
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