SEC Best Bets, Odds for College Football Week 6: Will McClellan Find the End Zone Vs. Aggies?

We're backing Alabama's running back to score a touchdown at a surprisingly long price in our SEC best bets for Week 6, based on the best college football odds.

Mike Spector

Last Updated: October 7, 2023 12:45 PM EDT • 7 minute read

We've meticulously analyzed the odds and diverse markets for all six college football games featuring SEC teams in Week 6, presenting our top bets derived from the most favorable NCAAF odds.

An SEC team has won each of the last four college football national championships, making it the most discussed and scrutinized conference.

Despite being picked to finish sixth out of seven teams in the SEC East in the preseason media poll, Missouri now has a massive opportunity to silence the doubters and improve to 6-0 when they host LSU.

No. 1 Georgia vs. No. 20 Kentucky is one of four ranked vs. ranked matchups this week, and we will see if the Bulldogs are motivated after receiving only 35 of the 62 first-place votes in the AP poll following last week’s close call at Auburn

Here are our SEC college football best bets for Saturday of Week 6 (odds via our best college football betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

SEC best bets for college football Week 6

Jase McClellan anytime touchdown vs. Texas A&M (-110 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Florida Over 34.5 vs. Vanderbilt (-125 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Malik Nabers first-half touchdown vs. Missouri (+110 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐
Georgia -7.5 first half vs. Kentucky (-106 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

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SEC schedule and odds Week 6

(Odds via Caesars)

SEC college football predictions

Jase McClellan anytime touchdown vs. Texas A&M (-110 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

There was a time when getting -110 odds for Alabama’s lead running back to score a touchdown would have been unheard of, given the frequency with which they scored. However, it has been well-documented that Alabama’s offensive line issues are a big reason for its struggling offense that ranks eighth in the conference in scoring (32.2 points per game).

Things have been looking up for the Crimson Tide after committing to Jalen Milroe as their starting quarterback, as they have averaged 32 points per game against SEC competition. Milroe has completed 81% of his passes each of the last two weeks while posting his best QBR (96.8) of the season last week against Mississippi State.

However, head coach Nick Saban prefers to run when the team is close to the goal line, as four of the previous five Crimson Tide touchdowns have come on the ground. Thus, while Milroe should keep the Aggies defense honest with his newfound accuracy, that should open up running lanes for McClellan, who has scored at least one touchdown in six of his previous eight games dating back to last season.

Our Brenden Schaeffer dives further into this matchup with his Alabama vs. Texas A&M predictions.

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This is a four-star play, as McClellan entered last week ranked third among FBS running backs with 27 missed tackles forced, per PFF. We are getting the best value at bet365, as FanDuel has -135 odds for the same prop.

Florida Over 34.5 vs. Vanderbilt (-125 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Vanderbilt has allowed 39.8 points per game during a four-game losing streak. While it trailed undefeated Missouri by just 10 points early in the fourth quarter, that does not detract from the fact that Tigers quarterback Brady Cook had a career day with 395 yards passing and four touchdowns. Cook settled in nicely, completing 25 of his first 29 passes, which is exactly the confidence boost Gators quarterback Graham Mertz will need coming off a blowout loss against Kentucky.

Mertz leads all SEC quarterbacks in completion percentage and is top five in passer rating despite facing three opponents currently in the AP top 25. He entered the season ranked last among FBS quarterbacks in total QBR, completion percentage, interception percentage, and TD-INT ratio.

However, Mertz has completed 81.5% of his passes against SEC opponents with an encouraging 3-1 TD-INT ratio. And though Trevor Etienne was limited to just 29 yards on 11 carries against Kentucky, he entered the week ranked second in the SEC with 11 rushes of 10-plus yards. Thus, we expect a more balanced attack from Florida when facing a Vanderbilt defense that has allowed the second-most rushing yards per game (147.8) of any team in the conference.

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DraftKings charges much less in juice than bet365 (-150) for the same number, and we are getting the right side of the key number of 35, whereas FanDuel’s team total O/U is 35.5 (-106 to back the Over).

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Malik Nabers first-half touchdown vs. Missouri (+110 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐

LSU has issues defensively, as the Tigers have allowed an average of 43.7 points in their three biggest games of the season (vs. Florida State, vs. Arkansas, at Ole Miss).

It is also fair to wonder how much the defense will have in the tank a week after facing Ole Miss and its offense that runs plays quicker than every 22 seconds. Thus, we expect the LSU offense to have to score frequently in what should be a raucous atmosphere in Columbia, with Jayden Daniels relying on his best wide receiver early.

In LSU’s two true road games this season, Malik Nabers has totaled 21 catches for 341 yards and two touchdowns. Against Mississippi State, those two touchdowns came before halftime, as the team resorted to more of a running attack once it built a big lead.

Nabers ranks second in the country in receiving yards (625), and he faces a Missouri secondary that ranks 97th in passing explosiveness allowed.

Nabers has a price as high as -285 to score a touchdown anytime at DraftKings, so we are getting much better value at bet365 to back him to find the end zone in the first 30 minutes.

A big game from Nabers aligns with my Over pick in from our LSU-Missouri predictions.

Georgia -7.5 first half vs. Kentucky (-106 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Georgia is 0-4-1 ATS, while Kentucky has covered four of its five games this year. In addition, the Wildcats are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 October games against AP-ranked opponents.

However, those trends have resulted in an under-inflated line, especially as Kentucky is coming off its biggest win over Florida in 44 years, and Georgia had a four-quarter battle against Auburn last week.

Georgia has a plus-51 point differential in the first half compared to a plus-77 differential in the second half of games this season. However, we expect head coach Kirby Smart to light a fire under his players, who have trailed by double-digits at some point in both SEC games this season.

Look for Georgia to have more success in the red zone (it has scored touchdowns on 65.4% of its red zone trips) to key a first-half cover.

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DraftKings and bet365 charge a price of -108 and -110, respectively, to lay the 7.5 points in the first half, so we are getting the best return at FanDuel. We would make the alternate first-half spread of -6.5 (-145) found at bet365 a five-star play, but we prefer the lower price with laying more than a touchdown.

Bettors can get even better odds by backing our Kentucky-Georgia prediction for the full-game spread.

SEC college football best bets made 10/5/2023 at 6:08 a.m. ET.

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Written by:
Mike Spector

Mike started in the sports writing industry in July 2019, and gained a lot of followers in his first year after finishing with the No. 2 overall record in an annual NFL betting competition, which made picks against the spread, and from an Over/Under and moneyline perspective. Mike is an avid fan of the NFL, MLB, tennis, and all college sports. In his opinion, March Madness is the best sporting event there is, and he's especially euphoric starting with conference tournament time in college basketball. Mike's a big advocate of "fading the public" and making plays that are contrarian, constantly citing that "there are reasons why they have those big shiny buildings in Las Vegas." When making wagers, Mike always scours the best odds at all of the major sports betting sites, where he mostly sifts through DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, and bet365. He's tried several others and is of the firm belief that bettors should not just stick to one sportsbook, as there is always likely better value to be had with the same wager. In addition, while Mike received his undergraduate degree from Villanova University, he has no issue betting against the Wildcats when it comes to college basketball wagering, and suggests other bettors should always put their “head” before their “hearts.”