College Football Player Props Week 2: Predictions, Picks for This Weekend
After an entertaining 2023 season opening weekend, it's time to explore our favorite player props for Week 2 based on the best NCAAF odds.
The inaugural week for this college football players' prop column has been a huge success. We went 3-1 on our best bets, which included a 3-0 start to the season that began with a nice juicy +134 payout. We'll certainly take +2.19 units any week this season.
While I can't guarantee the same level of success for the rest of the year, it was nice to get off on the right foot. This weekly column will continue to focus on the process and finding different betting angles for a full college football slate every weekend.
So, I would suggest you bookmark this page as we add our favorite player props for Week 2 throughout the week.
Here are our best college football player props for Week 2 (odds via our best college football betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Check out our college football Week 2 predictions and College football Week 2 upset picks.
College football player props for Week 2
- CJ Baxter Over 39.5 rushing yards - Texas vs. Alabama (-120 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐
- CJ Baxter anytime touchdown scorer - Texas vs. Alabama (+275 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐
- J. Michael Sturdivant Under 75.5 receiving yards - UCLA vs. San Diego State (-114 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐
- Prop: Daniel Hishaw Jr. anytime touchdown scorer - Illinois vs. Kansas (+240 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐ ✔️
- SGP: Illinois Over 26.5 points + Luke Altmyer to record 25-plus rushing yards - Illinois vs. Kansas (+205 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐ ✖️
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College football player props for Week 2
CJ Baxter Over 39.5 rushing yards (-120 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐
This line is simply too low for Texas' starting running back in a battle that could feature plenty of smash-mouth football when Alabama and Texas square off in what might be the best college football game of the year.
During last week's win over Rice, Baxter became the first true freshman to start at running back for the Longhorns since Ricky Williams did so in 1995. Baxter, a five-star prospect, proved why when he broke free for a 32-yard run in the second quarter.
Baxter ultimately left the game early due to an injury, finishing with 38 yards on five rushing attempts. Head coach Steve Sarkisian told reporters that it was a ribs issue and Baxter is expected to play against Alabama after returning to practice this week.
“CJ looked great,” Sarkisian told On3.com. “Fired up for him to go cut it loose this Saturday.”
We are excited to see Baxter in action and think this line is a bit discounted based on how Week 1 unfolded.
CJ Baxter anytime touchdown scorer (+275 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐
This play is related to the former, but offers a bigger payout. While we have more confidence in the yardage prop, the +275 price on UT's starting running back to score a touchdown is too appealing.
To be honest, it's a similar logic to our Daniel Hishaw TD bets from Friday night that ultimately got home. The sportsbooks are pricing these TD markets based on the box score from Week 1. Running back Jaydon Blue led the Longhorns with 10 carries for 55 yards, while Jonathan Brooks provided 52 yards on 13 rushing attempts.
There is a chance that Texas has a three-headed backfield, and any member of that room could pop off in this game. But we are most intrigued by the upside of Baxter, who is listed at 6-foot-1 and 218 pounds. Especially when there are 13 players in this game priced with shorter odds than Baxter to score a TD, including the other two Texas running backs.
I'm not sure how often we will get a near-3/1 price on Baxter to score a TD in his collegiate career, but we are going to take advantage to have some more action on this marquee matchup.
CJ Baxter props made 9/9/2023 at 4:15 p.m. ET.
J. Michael Sturdivant Under 75.5 receiving yards (-114 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐
I'll admit, this one is tough to get behind. Not only is UCLA's top receiver on my fantasy team, but he's coming off a five-catch, 136-yard performance in Week 1.
However, it's important to remember he recorded 62 of those yards on one play, when Sturdivant and freshman quarterback Dante Moore linked up for a touchdown in a win over Coastal Carolina.
Sturdivant, who is 6-foot-3 and 205 pounds, possesses the ability to make a significant play at any point. That's why he's considered a promising prospect in the 2024 NFL Draft.
But this feels like an inflated total for the Cal transfer making his second start for Chip Kelly's run-first UCLA offense. Sturdivant only cleared this mark in one game with the Golden Bears while finishing with 65 catches for 755 yards and seven scores in 2022.
It also remains unclear what UCLA will do at quarterback. Ethan Garbers received the Week 1 start, but Moore flashed in his collegiate debut. Sturdivant will either be at the mercy of a quarterback shuffle again, or he'll deal with some potential inconsistencies from a freshman signal-caller.
Most importantly, San Diego State's defense has remained potent during a 2-0 start in 2023. The Aztecs rank 29th in the country with a coverage grade of 78.6, according to Pro Football Focus. Cornerbacks who are posting coverage grades of 81 or higher lead the unit.
This prop is roughly 15 yards too high for what should be an interesting late-night matchup in Snapdragon Stadium. With most of our best sports betting sites setting this line at 73.5, we'll bet against Sturdivant finishing with more than 75 receiving yards in this one.
Sturdivant prop made 9/9/2023 at 1:45 p.m. ET.
Daniel Hishaw Jr. anytime touchdown scorer (+240 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐ ✔️
Touchdowns can be fluky, so there is no guarantee that Kansas running back Daniel Hishaw Jr. will find paydirt for the second week in a row. We are simply taking advantage of a line that is mispriced as of this writing.
Terms and conditions apply.
In a commanding 48-17 victory over Missouri State in their season opener, all four running backs for KU found the end zone, showcasing a balanced offensive attack. The standout performance came from starting running back Devin Neal, who scored two touchdowns and showcased his considerable potential, suggesting a promising future in the higher levels of football.
But it was Hishaw who earned No. 2 running back duties, receiving two carries as early as the first quarter. Dylan McDuffie eventually scored on his first attempt in the third quarter, while Sevion Morrison recorded all eight of his rushing attempts in the fourth.
Despite this clear pecking order in the Kansas running back room, BetMGM is favoring Morrison (+115) and McDuffie (+200) in the anytime touchdown market. This has created value on Hishaw, who appears to be the primary backup after handling that role last year before an injury cut his season short.
Hishaw, who is the team's go-to option in short-yardage situations, scored in all five games he appeared in last year. He even recorded two rushing touchdowns in a Week 2 win over West Virginia, a feat he has +750 odds to repeat via FanDuel's touchdown market. FanDuel has actually priced Hishaw at +130 to score in what could be an offensive shootout on Friday.
Let's have a little more action on points by taking advantage of this price on Hishaw to notch a TD. If you are feeling even more bold, Hishaw's first touchdown odds of 18/1 could even be worth a sprinkle.
Daniel Hishaw Jr. prop made 9/6/2023 at 1:05 p.m. ET.
Illinois Over 26.5 points + Luke Altmyer to record 25-plus rushing yards (+205 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐ ✖️
We are shooting for another payout north of 2/1 with this same-game parlay at DraftKings. This is only two stars because same-game parlays aren't usually the smartest way to have action on a game, but we do see a world in which this bet makes sense.
And not just as a way to keep the best sportsbooks from limiting us.
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As mentioned in my Illinois vs. Kansas betting preview, I'm already on Illinois to score Over 26.5 points in what should be a shootout. KU's defense surrendered an average of 35.6 points per contest last year, and that unit actually lost its pro edge rusher.
The lack of pressure could be a problem when facing mobile quarterbacks. We already saw it in KU's win over Missouri State, when a FCS quarterback finished with 36 rushing yards. Enter Luke Altmyer, who led Illinois in rushing with 69 yards on nine attempts in his debut after transferring from Ole Miss.
Altmyer's rushing prop of 28.5 yards at FanDuel is worth a look in a game we project north of 30 yards, but I'd rather shoot for upside with this pick. Sportsbooks are eager to release college football prop markets, but don't always know how to price it. FanDuel, for example, has this same SGP valued at +166 compared to the discount of +205 of DraftKings.
Unless shops actually release props for Jalon Daniels, these two picks will have to suffice for Friday night. Let's try to get one of these 2/1 props home in what should be an exciting college football game in Lawrence.
SGP made 9/8/2023 at 12:45 p.m. ET.
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