College Football Upset Picks, Predictions Week 2: Can Washington State Beat Wisconsin Again?
Our college football upset picks record sits at 4-2 for a return of six units heading into Week 2. We look to keep the winning action coming as we attack the best NCAAF odds.
With a historic upset of last year's national runners-up, the TCU Horned Frogs, the Colorado Buffaloes have sent shock waves throughout the country. It was the Colorado's first win on the road against an Associated Press Top 20 team since 2002 when it came into this game as a +20.5 underdog. This week, are any other ranked teams in danger of being upset?
Here are our best college football upset picks for Week 2 (odds via our best college football betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
College football upset picks: Week 2
- Purdue (+130 via DraftKings) vs. Virginia Tech ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Tulane (+260 via DraftKings) vs. Ole Miss ⭐⭐⭐
- Washington State (+210 via DraftKings) vs. Wisconsin ⭐⭐⭐
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College football upset predictions
Purdue ML vs. Virginia Tech (+130 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
The Purdue Boilermakers made our upset picks column last week, as we doubted their ability to hold serve at home against the defending Mountain West champion Fresno State Bulldogs. However, Purdue’s offense did some good things against a Bulldogs defense that is supposed to be its strength, as evidenced by its No. 58 preseason ranking in defensive SP+ compared to its offense ranking 85th.
This is still a Boilermakers team that ended a 20-year drought in competing in the Big Ten Championship last year, and they had plenty of chances to beat a defending conference champion, leading by 11 in the third quarter and three points with under five minutes to go. Texas transfer Hudson Card looked comfortable in a new scheme, throwing for 254 yards and two touchdowns, and is capable of carrying the offense when it struggles to run the football (the Boilermakers ranked 105th in rushing last year and ran for just 109 yards against Fresno State).
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Virginia Tech is ripe for an upset, as the team failed to score more than 30 points in any game last season. The Hokies averaged just 2.5 yards per carry in their season-opening win against Old Dominion, and it is dangerous to put everything on quarterback Grant Wells’ shoulders, as he threw nine interceptions last year. This is a head coaching matchup of two former Big Ten defensive coordinators, but we trust Purdue head coach Ryan Walters to get his defense fixed quicker, instilling some of the concepts that led his Illinois team to the No. 1 scoring defense in the country.
DraftKings is the only sportsbook letting us back the underdogs at higher than +120 odds.
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Tulane ML vs. Ole Miss (+260 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐
The Tulane Green Wave were on upset alert last week against a South Alabama team that returned 19 starters from a squad that won double-digit games last year. Tulane kicked off as six-point favorites but ended the game with 13 unanswered points to win by 20 and cover comfortably.
Tulane's quarterback Michael Pratt was nearly flawless, with his sole incompletion attributed to wide receiver Jha'Quan Jackson dropping a pass. Pratt's performance didn't feature short conservative throws. Instead, he showcased his deep passing ability, completing five passes for distances exceeding 33 yards, highlighting his impressive downfield passing skills.
Tulane finished in the top 37 of offensive and defensive SP+ last season and proved it was the best non-Power Five team last year with a statement win over an explosive USC Trojans team in the Cotton Bowl. The Green Wave will not mind getting into a shootout with Lane Kiffin’s squad, whose defense regressed from 25th in defensive SP+ in 2021 to 49th in 2022 and ranked outside the top 50 in Havoc last year. Kiffin has brought in 41 transfers over the previous two seasons, and that potential lack of cohesion could mean its unraveling in what is one of Tulane’s biggest home games in school history.
DraftKings’ +260 odds represent great value for underdog backers, as the next-closest odds are the +245 found at FanDuel.
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Washington State ML vs. Wisconsin (+210 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐
The Wisconsin Badgers were supposed to shock the college football world by abandoning their usual power running game in favor of an Air Raid offense under new offensive coordinator Phil Longo. However, the Badgers ran 40 times in Week 1 against Buffalo compared to 31 pass attempts. In addition, quarterback Tanner Mordecai did not look entirely comfortable in the new system, averaging 7.9 yards per completion and throwing two interceptions, which resulted in a 36.0 QBR.
Wisconsin ran for 314 yards and 7.9 yards per carry and now faces a conundrum in what its offensive identity will be this week. However, we know Washington State’s defense will be up to the challenge after last year’s 17-14 upset of the Badgers in Madison. The Cougars ran 25 fewer offensive plays and were outgained by 148 yards, but held up well, allowing just 4.0 yards per carry, and at the time, held Badgers running back Braelon Allen under 100 yards for the second time in 11 games.
Revenge will be on Wisconsin’s mind, but Washington State lost to two of the Pac-12’s top three teams (Oregon and eventual conference champion Utah) by a combined seven points at home last year. The Cougars are 5-7 straight up as home underdogs since 2016 and went 5-2 against the spread at home a season ago (2-1 ATS as home ‘dogs).
Head to DraftKings for the best value, as it is the only shop offering better than +202 odds to back the ‘dog.
Read more on this matchup with Brenden Schaeffer's Wisconsin vs. Washington State predictions.
College football upset picks made 9/6/2023 at 6:44 a.m. ET.
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