FIU vs. New Mexico State, Picks & Odds Week 6: Will Aggies Cover in 1st CUSA Home Game?
Here's our first taste of Wednesday college football action in 2023 when the New Mexico State Aggies host the Florida International Panthers, and we have you covered with our best FIU vs. New Mexico State prediction based on the best college football odds.
FIU has exceeded its projected season win total of 2.5 by securing three wins in its first five games. However, it is still in pursuit of its first CUSA victory.
Similarly, New Mexico State, in its inaugural year in the conference, is also on the hunt for its first CUSA win. The Aggies have managed a 2-3 record through five games, alternating between wins and losses.
Here is our best FIU vs. New Mexico State prediction and our college football picks (odds via our best college football betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
FIU vs. New Mexico State prediction: Week 6
New Mexico State -4.5 (-110 via Caesars, bet365) ⭐⭐⭐
Editor's note: All of our best live betting sites have now moved to -6.5.
The Aggies will be glad to be back at home after going 1-2 through their recent three-game road trip. Their offense has been impressive to this point, coming into their last game against Hawaii averaging 33 points per game and 4.1 Points per Opportunity. We will give the Aggies a pass for an underwhelming 17-point output against the Rainbow Warriors, as strong winds on the island limited what each team could do through the air.
However, New Mexico State still did what it does best and ran the football to the tune of 180 yards and 5.6 yards per carry. The Aggies entered the game with FBS’s fourth-ranked offense in terms of Rush Success and the best in Line Yards.
New Mexico State should capitalize on its advantage in the trenches against an FIU defense that ranks 98th in Stuff Rate and 53rd in Defensive Rushing Plays Explosiveness. The Panthers are beaten up after allowing Liberty to rush for 364 yards and 8.3 yards per carry, and we do not have much faith in quarterback Keyone Jenkins, who has yet to produce a QBR of better than 30.6 in any of his four games this season.
While FIU has outright wins as underdogs of 10.5 points against North Texas and seven points against UConn, we expect a fired-up Las Cruces crowd to spur the Aggies to a victory in their first CUSA home game.
This is a three-star play as part of our college football predictions for Week 6, as we respect what New Mexico State head coach Jerry Kill has done in his two seasons on the job, taking a team that had won eight total games in the four seasons prior and winning seven games, including a win in the Quick Lane Bowl last season.
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FIU vs. New Mexico State best odds
Caesars, bet365 (-110)
Caesars and bet365 offer the best value for New Mexico State backers, as they are a full point lower than the other best sports betting apps. Each of these teams has covered the spread in three of the five games they have played.
FIU vs. New Mexico State odds
FIU vs. New Mexico State odds analysis
Caesars had the biggest line movement regarding its point spread to this point. The book opened at New Mexico State -3 and reached as high as -5 within two hours before settling back in at -4.5. Early betting splits are 57/43 in favor of the Aggies. FIU covered easily as a 15.5-point underdog in a 21-7 road win against New Mexico State last year.
Much like the point spread, there is a 1-point difference in the O/U among the major sportsbooks. FanDuel and BetMGM are on the low end with a total of 50.5, while BetRivers is the only shop as high as 51.5. Both teams have been profitable Under teams to this point, cashing the Under a combined seven times in their 10 games.
FIU vs. New Mexico State game info
- When: Wednesday, Oct. 4 at 9 p.m. ET
- Where: Aggie Memorial Stadium, Las Cruces, NM
- How to watch: CBSSN
- Weather: 56 degrees, 8% chance of precipitation, wind 6 mph NNE
FIU-New Mexico State prediction made 10/2/23 at 6:09 a.m. ET.
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