Alabama vs. Auburn Predictions, Picks & Odds Week 13: Will The Under on This Low Iron Bowl Total Cash?
The Alabama Crimson Tide aim to protect their College Football Playoff hopes against the Auburn Tigers in the "Iron Bowl," and we present our top Alabama vs. Auburn prediction based on the best college football odds.
Alabama (10-0, 7-1 SEC) already knows it has a date with the No. 1 Georgia Bulldogs in next week’s SEC Championship Game. The Crimson Tide need to win that game if they hope to play for a national title, so they could be looking ahead.
However, Alabama has won straight consecutive games against Auburn by an average of 17.7 points.
Meanwhile, Auburn (6-5, 3-4 SEC) is coming off an embarrassing 31-10 loss to New Mexico State, the Aggies’ first over an SEC team in school history. The Tigers need a win against Alabama to avoid being under .500 in SEC play for the third consecutive season.
To accompany our college football predictions for Week 13 and college football upset picks, here is our best Alabama-Auburn prediction and our college football picks (odds via our best college football betting sites; Pick confidence is based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Alabama vs. Auburn prediction: Week 13
Under 49 (-110 via BetMGM, Caesars, bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Alabama and Auburn have not played an Iron Bowl with a total lower than 50 points since 2016, but we still expect the Under to hit on Saturday.
The Tigers' offense hit a new low during Week 12 against New Mexico State. Quarterback Payton Thorne was held under 200 passing yards for the seventh time in eight games, and the Aggies outgained the Tigers 414-213. We're chalking the 414 yards allowed more to New Mexico State head coach Jerry Kill’s knowledge of how to beat a Hugh Freeze-led defense, as the Aggies bested Freeze’s Liberty squad 49-14 in 2022 as 21-point underdogs.
Speaking of familiarity, Freeze is one of five head coaches to beat Nick Saban multiple times, and he's the only active SEC coach to do so. We expect him to dial up a defensive game plan to slow down Crimson Tide quarterback Jalen Milroe, who has posted an 88.3 QBR or better in three consecutive games and a 6:1 touchdown-to-interception ratio during that span. And while Alabama’s offense ranks in the top 16 in scoring and 13th in SP+, it still entered last week barely inside the top 60 in success rate. Auburn should enjoy decent success defensively if it avoids turnovers.
The Tigers held the Bulldogs to 27 points when they hosted Georgia earlier in 2023, which was the second-lowest point total and lowest road scoring output for the nation's top team. Meanwhile, the Tigers are the only SEC team to average more rushing yards per game (194.3) than passing yards (162.9). That's a recipe for success against a Crimson Tide defense that ranks in the top 10 in success rate and has allowed 3.6 or fewer yards per carry in four of six matchups.
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Alabama vs. Auburn best odds
BetMGM, Caesars, bet365 (-110)
Under backers get their choice of three of our best sports betting sites for the best number available, as BetMGM, Caesars, and bet365 are a half-point higher than the others.
The Over has cashed in Alabama’s last four games, so we would not put anyone off wanting to wait to see if the line creeps any higher, given the momentum of the Crimson Tide's offense.
Alabama vs. Auburn odds
Alabama vs. Auburn odds analysis
The total has remained frozen at all of our best sportsbooks throughout the week except for DraftKings, where the O/U lowered a half-point from 49 to 48.5. Given the lopsided betting splits to this point with the Over getting 72% of the action, it is fair to say that sharps have been wagered on the Under.
All our best live betting sites are in unison with Alabama as 14.5-point favorites, while BetRivers is the only shop as high as -15. These lines are a drastic change from the lookahead line that skyrocketed from -10.5 after Auburn lost to New Mexico State. Early spread wagers are 70% in favor of Alabama despite the home team covering in the last six Iron Bowl matchups.
Alabama vs. Auburn game info
- When: Saturday, Nov. 25 at 3:30 p.m. ET
- Where: Jordan-Hare Stadium, Auburn, AL
- How to watch: CBS
- Weather: 61 degrees, 6% chance of precipitation, 6-mph north winds
Alabama-Auburn prediction made 11/22/2023 at 6:17 a.m. ET.
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