Nikigreat Tennis Picks

[Nikigreat]

Murray or Fed tonight?

I would go with Murray.
The scottish has a more regular game that Roger can suffer a lot. Not randomly Andy leads head to head 9-6.
Yesterday Roger got rhytm by Del Potro's linear and strong shots, but Murray has many more variations and if he uses them well he can break Roger's game and make him to provocate many unforced errors.
Another consideration: in 15 matches Fed defeated Murray on hard outdoor court just two times; the other wins of the swiss came on indoor, where is easier to go with one-two shots schemes and make rallies shorter that is what Roger has to do with Murray.
Another aspect I noticed since the first point with Djoko is that Murray's first serve is very solid and if a motivation to pick Roger is that he's serving so good, we can say Murray can do the same today if will put many firsts in.
Dubai's surface is not so fast and that's another point in favour of Andy.
I'll probably pick him.

[Nikigreat]

Dubai
Andy Murray - Roger Federer
Pick: Andy Murray @ 2.15 [+115]
Why: I know odd is higher on Pinnacle but i can't open it from mobile so I took him on Victor.
Pasting the previous post:
The scottish has a more regular game that Roger can suffer a lot. Not randomly Andy leads head to head 9-6.
Yesterday Roger got rhytm by Del Potro's linear and strong shots, but Murray has many more variations and if he uses them well he can break Roger's game and make him to provocate many unforced errors.
Another consideration: in 15 matches Fed defeated Murray on hard outdoor court just two times; the other wins of the swiss came on indoor, where is easier to go with one-two shots schemes and make rallies shorter that is what Roger has to do with Murray.
Another aspect I noticed since the first point with Djoko is that Murray's first serve is very solid and if a motivation to pick Roger is that he's serving so good, we can say Murray can do the same today if will put many firsts in.
Dubai's surface is not so fast and that's another point in favour of Andy.

BetVictor

[Nikigreat]

History
Parlays: 10-7 [+15.38]
Dogs: 5-10 [-5.17]
Favorites: 6-1 [+10.47]
Over: 2-0 [+6.78]
Handicap: 0-2-1V [-5.8]
Futures: 1-3 [+1.31]

Total: +23.94

Couldn't see the final today, I followed the livescore and I believe Murray lost his match when he wasted 2 break points leading 4-3 in first set.
Ok, let's hope Pennetta will take the title tonight and then we'll see if pick something tomorrow.

[dsk0057]

Hey Niki, when do u think will have more tennis picks? I have been following your thread and love your picks and the way of playing.

[Nikigreat]

Hey Niki, when do u think will have more tennis picks? I have been following your thread and love your picks and the way of playing.

Hey mate, thank you very much, really happy to read posts like yours.
I was just about to post something on my thread when I saw your post.
Don't worry, I was just waiting for Indian Wells to begin, there were only two Challengers tournaments this week and with Indy the thread will restart like always!

[Nikigreat]

Ok, odds are not out yet but with main draw done let's see some possible play:

Mens:
Stakhovsky over Bogomolov jr.;
Falla over Leo Mayer;
Haase over Andujar;
Stebe - Sweeting over games;

Womens:
Hercog over Hampton;
King over Errani;
Zakopalova over Pous-Tio;
Krajicek over Radwanska U.;
Davis over Martic;
Martinez Sanchez over Dominguez Lino;
Halep over Zhang;
Dokic over Dulko;
Tsurenko over Peer;

Not so much because there are a lot of empty spaces that qualifiers will fill and many byes for the best seeded players. Anyway in this tournament it's better not to pick many things in first rounds and to wait at least seconds to see who is in good shape and who is here for holydays.

[dsk0057]

Hey mate, thank you very much, really happy to read posts like yours.
I was just about to post something on my thread when I saw your post.
Don't worry, I was just waiting for Indian Wells to begin, there were only two Challengers tournaments this week and with Indy the thread will restart like always!

So nice of you to reply me. waiting for all your plays. BOL!!!

[Nikigreat]

Couldn't play yesterday, I had some good shot like King +210 and Krajicek -120 but well, let's start today.
A consideration on this tournament:
Surface seems really slow this year, checking stats of qualies I saw a very poor number of aces, only great server did some more but always less than they usually do.
This can favourite a lot Rafa Nadal; he jumped Dubai and he is preparing this tournament from weeks. Even Murray can take advantages from this courts but in a possible/probabile semi against Nole the serbian will do anything to not lose two times in a row with him.
Don't trust Federer, if what I'm thinking of the surface is right, he will have to play long rallies and will be harder from him to find one-two shots schemes. Hope he'll come in semi with Rafa because I would go on the spanish with no doubt.
Possible outsider could be Ferrer, Monfils, Simon and Raonic.

[dsk0057]

Couldn't play yesterday, I had some good shot like King +210 and Krajicek -120 but well, let's start today.
A consideration on this tournament:
Surface seems really slow this year, checking stats of qualies I saw a very poor number of aces, only great server did some more but always less than they usually do.
This can favourite a lot Rafa Nadal; he jumped Dubai and he is preparing this tournament from weeks. Even Murray can take advantages from this courts but in a possible/probabile semi against Nole the serbian will do anything to not lose two times in a row with him.
Don't trust Federer, if what I'm thinking of the surface is right, he will have to play long rallies and will be harder from him to find one-two shots schemes. Hope he'll come in semi with Rafa because I would go on the spanish with no doubt.
Possible outsider could be Ferrer, Monfils, Simon and Raonic.

Looks like a definite money spinner for me, with all big players in it. I am all ready. Let's crack it open Niki!!!

[Nikigreat]

Indian Wells
Lauren Davis - Petra Martic
Pick: Lauren Davis + 6.5 games @ 1.75 [-125]
Why: Late pick, sorry. Davis is doing very well this year, she is '93 and can really become a good player in two-three years. Good technique, great footwork and even a nice charisma it seems. Martic retired sunday in the final of Kuala Lumpur, not a traumatic injury but only a malaise for the high temperature in Kuala. But shouldn't be easy to have a problem like that, leave the next day, come in Indian Wells with a completely opposite jet lag, having only one day to practice on these courts and to win conceeding few games to an unchained young american player who play also at home and will be supported by the crowd.
We have all the motivations here, this seems a good pick but in Tennis you never know.

BetVictor

[dsk0057]

Thanks for the pick I actually got it for +5.5 games - 120 @ 5dimes. I am on it!!! BOL..
.

[Fidel]

I want to make a big play on Sweeting. You think Stebe will really hang with him? he really impressed me vs Young last week. (I know Donald is a buster, but he really stomped him)

Should I not unload on him?

[dsk0057]

The very first play with you is a winner......let's do some more damage Niki...Thanks again and GL!!!

[Nikigreat]

History
Parlays: 10-7 [+15.38]
Dogs: 5-10 [-5.17]
Favorites: 6-1 [+10.47]
Over: 2-0 [+6.78]
Handicap: 1-2-1V [-4.93]
Futures: 1-3 [+1.31]

Total: +24.81

I should have put something on Davis ML too but it's ok with the handicap, nice way to start the tournament.

[Pherst]

Was gonna go on Martic, saw you were against it so didn't. Essentially you got me in front by not betting!!
Still enjoying the thread - keep up the good work!!

[Nikigreat]

I want to make a big play on Sweeting. You think Stebe will really hang with him? he really impressed me vs Young last week. (I know Donald is a buster, but he really stomped him)

Should I not unload on him?

Didn't watch him playing from a long time; I like the over here, Stebe is a good fighter who is trying to rising up in the Tour, Sweeting's serve will be decisive for me, even crowd can be a factor, but I wouldn't pick him at that odd.
GL anyway!

[Fidel]

Thanks Niki

[Nikigreat]

Indian Wells
Lukas Rosol - Thomaz Bellucci
Pick: Lukas Rosol@ 2.2 [+120]
Why: Bellucci did anything in this period on clay, his surface. He also suffered an injury and then came back just to lose by Granollers in Acapulco. He has not show one good result. Rosol is not God of Tennis ok, but is a rising young who showed some good things recently and fit better this surface. It's first meeting between them, so I don't know if the czech can suffer the lefty games of the brazilian; if not, he has a good chance to advance here.

BetVictor

[Nikigreat]

History
Parlays: 10-7 [+15.38]
Dogs: 5-11 [-6.17]
Favorites: 6-1 [+10.47]
Over: 2-0 [+6.78]
Handicap: 1-2-1V [-4.93]
Futures: 1-3 [+1.31]

Total: +23.81

Rosol lost in straights, Bellcci too solid on serve.

[Nikigreat]

Two plays in two days but I should have some pick today, I'll post it as soon I can.

[Nikigreat]

Indian Wells
Philipp Kohlschreiber - Kevin Anderson
Pick: Philipp Kohlschreiber @ 2.3 [+130]
Why: I'm considering the possibile fatigues that Anderson can have; But I also considering another thing: Philipp has the variations that Anderson hates; the german uses really well the slice backhand that bounces really low and will be a problem for the tall Kevin.

BetVictor

[Nikigreat]

Treble
John Isner - Frederico Gil, Dudi Sela - Gilles Simon, Silvia Soler Espinosa - Roberta
Vinci
Pick: John Isner, Gilles Simon, Roberta Vinci @ 2.05 [+105]
Why: No problem for Isner. For Simon it's time to win some good match and cannot lose with Sela leading head to head 2-0. I expect a good tournament by him.
Vinci instead is 3-0 against Soler-Espinosa, defeated one week ago on clay, I don't think on hard the spanish has more chances.

BetVictor

[dsk0057]

On with it!!! GL!!

[Nikigreat]

Double
Ryan Harrison - Viktor Troicki, Stanislas Wawrinka - Robby Ginepri
Pick: Ryan Harrison, Stanislas Wawrinka @ 2.18 [+118]
Why: I would consider myself unlucky if Troicki defeats Harrison because that means Viktor has find his best tennis from many months. I think if Troicki stills on his standard level of 2012, a very ready and supported Harrison will win this.
Stan is more solid than Ginepri and if the match will be mostly played from baseline, as I think, the swiss won't have nightmares tonight.

BetVictor

[Nikigreat]

Double
Lauren Davis - Nadia Petrova, Novak Djokovic - Andrey Golubev
Pick: Lauren Davis +3.5 games, Number of Sets: Two @ 2.05 [+105]
Why: Going again with the young Davis. Petrova had probably the worst start of season of her career; she already lost by a young promise, Camila Giorgi, and that was the last match she played; I consider Lauren a little better than Giorgi (not randomly they met this year and Davis won) and I think the american as good chances tonight, but I hedge with the handicap.
Pair it with two sets in Nole's match; I don't think Golubev can win a set and so I put this to have a total odd of x2.

BetVictor

[Nikigreat]

Indian Wells Prop
Winner of 2th Quarter
Pick: Rafael Nadal @ 1.44 [-227]
Why: See here for complete consideration.
Would be shocked if Nadal doesn't come to the Semis here.
With a very easy draw, the only one who could beat him in his side is Tsonga; but not this time, not on these courts and not this Tsonga.

BetVictor

[Nikigreat]

Let's see if Simon is able to ruin the first parlay after leading 7-5 5-2 and losing the tiebreak 8-6 after leading 4-2 and wasting a break point in the first game of third set.

[Nikigreat]

How to complicate a Tennis match, by Gilles Simon.
The parlay hits by the way, let's go.

[Nikigreat]

History
Parlays: 12-8 [+16.61]
Dogs: 5-11-1V [-6.17]
Favorites: 6-1 [+10.47]
Over: 2-0 [+6.78]
Handicap: 1-2-1V [-4.93]
Futures: 1-3 [+1.31]

Total: +25.04

Wawrinka in three, Harrison in straights, ok the other parlay.
Davis lost 6-3 6-2 to close the day with 2 hits, 1 wrong and 1 void
(Kohlschreiber didn't went on court).

[dsk0057]

Thanks for the gr8 picks Niki....just a little disappointed with Davis, had she won, would have been real nice but nevertheless whatever I got to follow, I was still up for the day, so did good. Hope we can continue the good run...will try to catch almost all of your plays tomorrow....GL

[Nikigreat]

Thanks for the gr8 picks Niki....just a little disappointed with Davis, had she won, would have been real nice but nevertheless whatever I got to follow, I was still up for the day, so did good. Hope we can continue the good run...will try to catch almost all of your plays tomorrow....GL

Yeah but Petrova was really disappointing since now and I hoped Davis with the crowd support could make up at least a fight so I picked the handicap. A positive day by the way, now I'm playing a Tennis tournament, in the afternoon (CET) I'll check today schedule.

[dsk0057]

Yeah but Petrova was really disappointing since now and I hoped Davis with the crowd support could make up at least a fight so I picked the handicap. A positive day by the way, now I'm playing a Tennis tournament, in the afternoon (CET) I'll check today schedule.

No worries at all!!! I know you have saved the best for today and days to come....meanwhile you doing awesome

[Nikigreat]

Double
Gael Monfils - Nikolay Davydenko, Gilles Muller - Janko Tipsarevic
Pick: Gael Monfils, Janko Tipsarevic @ 1.83 [-120]
Why: Sorry no time for a precise write up. I can write that the slow surface is better for Tipso and La Monf. The first is superior from the baseline than Muller and can handle better the rallies, the second can return everything he has under the racquet till the russian does unforced errors. Davy was 0-5 with Bubka in first round so he's not probably at 100% and lost by Chiudinelli in Dubai. Monfils lost only by top player like Berdych and Tsonga and by Kukushkin at AO because injured.

BetVictor

[dsk0057]

On it as always!!! Btw no dogs tday? Wat do u think about kuznetsova against azarenka?

[Nikigreat]

On it as always!!! Btw no dogs tday? Wat do u think about kuznetsova against azarenka?

In minutes comes the dog... and wouldn't touch WTA in these days because is really random things.