Nikigreat Tennis Picks

Dmoneytx · 03-24-12, 02:04 PM

Hey SFG 93, I was born in San Fran!! Go 9ers!!!!!!!!!
Actually Concord area. Im sure u know where that is. Best of Luck to you!

SFGiants93 · 03-24-12, 02:29 PM

Hey Dmoneytx,

Nice to see another Bay Area native! The Niners and Giants are on the rise and I see another championship in the next couple years from the Niners. We're in love with Harbaugh here.

I see you love tennis as well

Nikigreat · 03-24-12, 04:10 PM

Yeah I play it.
We obviously have different categories, here in Italy we have 4:
1st you are ATP; the second one is the near level and is divided into 8 "sub-categories". If you are 2.2/2.3 you play Challengers tournaments so you're a Pro anyway; the third is agonistic yet and divided into 5 sub; the 4th is the amatorial one we can say, always fractionated in 5.
I'm now classified in the first of the third one, so I'm 3.1.
Anyway I think you play at a little better level than me

Tomorrow I'll play in the semifinals of a 3rd category tournament in my club. Hope for the best!

About betting, did you know Dimitrov was a break down in the third yesterday? Happy for you that he won by the way!

Nikigreat · 03-24-12, 04:20 PM

Originally posted by SFGiants93

Sounds just like all the other women's matches so far in this tournament. Nothing compared to McHale's 6-0 4-0 collapse though.

Probably it's because these really slow courts favourite long rallies and this kind of rallies are usually won by the one who is more mentally strong in that moment, and we all know WTA players can feel like gods in a particular moment and then can feel all the doubts of this world just like 2-3 games later.
And the more long the rally is the more you have to think and the more your mind changes.

Nikigreat · 03-24-12, 05:18 PM

Adding a late one.

Miami
Nicolas Almagro - David Goffin
Pick: Almagro 2-0 @ 1.6 [-166]
Why: Goffin disapponted me a little bit altough he won in first round because had serious problems to hold serve against Young, before the american gifted the first set and the match to him.
Almagro should play well here and in Indian showed a great run before losing by Djoko.

BetVictor

Nikigreat · 03-24-12, 06:42 PM

Great job Almagro, down 4-2 in the first won 6-4 6-2; these are the players I like to trust.

Fish won 6-3 7-6 and the Over is hit by one game, very good. 2-1 today, like yesterday it could be perfect but a girl ruined that, today was Barthel turn.

volkmannthad · 03-24-12, 08:03 PM

Damn! I missed your late bet

. I've got to watch these more keenly!

Dmoneytx · 03-25-12, 04:14 AM

Great work today Niki! And no, I didnt even check that Dimitrov score until this morning. He was down a break in 3rd?? Glad he turned it on!
I am happy Anderson got thru today. I had tennis all day, so it was my only play

The tment system sounds confusing, LOL! But it sounds totally awesome!! Sounds like u can play

Good luck in your match tomm!!!
Wish u the best.

Only 1 match left for me this tment, so I will be watching some lines for the first time in a few days. I am just now looking at them & I'm tired as crap. If I see something, I'll throw it up. If not, I'll be checking in a bit more tomm.
Thanks for all your hard work Niki in here.

Nikigreat · 03-25-12, 10:51 AM

Don't like any particular play today, especially ML, I'll probably pick some Total or some Handicap, but maybe not.

Dmoneytx · 03-25-12, 12:35 PM

I agree with u Niki. I lo

Dmoneytx · 03-25-12, 01:13 PM

I agree with u Niki. I looked late last night and nothing really jumped out at me. I held off on any tennis plays today. Getting ready for Mixed Dubs finals in 2 hours anyways. I hope u played well in your match today!

Nikigreat · 03-25-12, 02:38 PM

Originally posted by Dmoneytx

I agree with u Niki. I looked late last night and nothing really jumped out at me. I held off on any tennis plays today. Getting ready for Mixed Dubs finals in 2 hours anyways. I hope u played well in your match today!

You play every kind of competition wow!
By the way our tournaments are like every other simple knock-out tournament, like the ATP ones, but they are just divided in categories. So if you are 2nd category you aren't allowed to play a 3rd category one for example.
Today I played bad but I managed to win 6-1 6-0, tomorrow I'll play the final with a young boy who plays really well, it will be a nice match if I play about at my best.
Good luck for the Mixed mate!

Nikigreat · 03-26-12, 07:53 AM

Today I like Verdasco as underdog... but when I watched odds he was favourite! Really low odd to pick him, don't know what to do yet.

Dmoneytx · 03-26-12, 09:06 AM

Good luck today in the finals Niki!! I hope you play your game & come out on top!! BOL.
We lost mixed finals 3-6, 6-7. Ugh!! We player well. I served really well, but the other guy was really solid. We had our chances......
I picked up 200pts for my Open Singles, for losing in Quarters. That is what I focus on, so I'm fairly happy. Decent start for 2nd tment of the year for me.
I am so sore today, I can barely get out of bed. Teaching lessons later will be interesting, LOL!!

I will look at the matches today & throw a play here if I like something or comment on your picks, if you play something. Finally home, so I can look at lines & match ups without too much distraction.

Also, do y'all play on the red clay bec you are in Italy?? We

Dmoneytx · 03-26-12, 09:09 AM

We only play hard court. Again, good luck today. And thx for your hard work on the thread, as always

Nikigreat · 03-26-12, 09:26 AM

Miami
Gael Monfils - Juan Monaco
Pick: Number of Games: Over 21.5 @ 1.8 [-125]

BetVictor

Miami
Maria Kirilenko - Marion Bartoli
Pick: Maria Kirilenko +3.5 Games @ 1.75 [-133]

BetVictor

Miami
Nicolas Almagro - Fernando Verdasco
Pick: Fernando Verdasco @ 1.8 [-125]

BetVictor

Double
Sam Stosur - Serena Williams, Yanina Wickmayer - Caroline Wozniacki
Pick: Serena Williams, Caroline Wozniacki @ 1.87 [-114]

BetVictor

Dmoneytx · 03-26-12, 10:34 AM

I deposited with Bovada to start this year. Still rolling off first dep of 300, so I am sticking with them. But they don't offer handicaps or totals. Kind of miss them.

I like the Safarova play on the handicap. Bartoli has had a 3 setter earlier and struggled with Halep yesterday. Lucie can seriously step it up at times and play with the bigger players! If Marion is off, Safarova could steal this match. I hope she does! I do not like Bartoli at all. She has burned me in the past, so I refuse to play anything she is involved in.

I also refuse to play anything Wozniacki is involoved in. Wickmayer is playing well & will have a ton of confidence after beating Clijsters. BUT, it would not surprise me to see Woz win this match. I really like Serena today! Stosur had 10 doubles yesterday & Serena looks to be serving really well (8 or 9 aces last match)! If Stosur doesnt get her serves under control today, I think & hope, Serena could smash her!!

I also was going to take Monfils over Monaco in a two play hook up I think. If Monaco is serving well, this will definetly go over. But hard to tell bec Lu retired in first set. I think Monfils will serve much better today & that could spell trouble if he holds serves at a fast pace. This could be tight, but Monfils has a diff gear (IF he hits it) than Juan does. Over is not a bad play at all sir.

Verdasco match should be close. I looked at the stats & I couldn't really make a decision. On hard court, I think he has the advantage. If Niko is serving well, this match will be super tight. If he doesn't, I think "pretty boy" V takes this one. I actually don't like Verdasco, so I'll prob stay away from this one just bec of personal preference.

I might have one hook up play today, I'll post after my lesson this morning. Best of Luck today Niki!!!!

Dmoneytx · 03-26-12, 11:43 AM

Three play hook up for me today Niki:

S. Williams -375
Monfils -275
Randwanska -2000

Total = apprx -124

This is actually a two play hook up, bec I think Radwanska will win rather easily today (adds a small % to payout). I had a killer week in College BB about a week ago, so I don't mind if I take a chance with a big favorite in my hook up. I feel good about all 3 of these plays. BOL to all of us

Demonata · 03-26-12, 11:54 AM

That should hit.

Dmoneytx · 03-26-12, 02:16 PM

Thanks D! 17 Aces for Serena so far, HOLY CRAP!!! Once she pulled that first set out, I felt MUCH better. Still not over, but Serena looks like she is hitting the ball very well.

Dmoneytx · 03-26-12, 02:23 PM

Quick comment Niki:

Almagro only lost 11 points on serve today!!! What a crap return game by "pretty boy" today!! That's why I said I always stay away from that dude. I have lost faith in him a LONG time ago. He is so talented, but I have seen him play SO crappy before, with my own eyes.

And Kirilenko???? Sorry, but I got retarded earlier & put Safarova in my comments instead of Kirl. Kirilenko only won TWO points on her second serve today!! WTF?? I hate Bartoli bec she can play AMAZING & she has burned me so bad before losing to much much weaker opponents.
(Honestly, I really cringe when I put a WTA play in my hook ups.........makes me always sweat, LOL!!)

It reminds me of an old coach I had in Juniors.........He always said, "you are never better than your second serve". Well, I guess that was the case with Kirilenko today huh??? Pathetic by Maria.

Demonata · 03-26-12, 02:35 PM

Ya man those aces by serena was crazy. Shes so hard to beat because even if you get her in a tiebreak her aces usually give her the win. She also did not play the best and still won in straight sets. Now Monfils better play to win. Also got ferrer and Del Po in a parlay with monfils.

Dmoneytx · 03-26-12, 02:40 PM

I would be shocked if Julian beat Ferrer!! Could be two tight sets, but Ferrer has the def edge! Everything Julian does, Ferrer does better. We will see........
DelPo has been playing freaking solid man. I expect another win for him over Cilic today. Cilic is odd, if he doesn't serve well, he can get beat by average players. If he serves well, could be a very very tight match with Juan Martin.

Awesome finish by Serena on that last game huh??? Down 0-40 and bombs TWO aces to get to deuce! And then ONE more in deuce I think??! She ripped that game right out of Samantha's mouth!!! LOL!!!!

Good luck today D!!!!!

Demonata · 03-26-12, 02:56 PM

Ya man but Ferrer already down a break. Julian played bad yesterday so hopefully ferrer breaks back. Ya man Del Po is playing great as of late and as long as he serves well should win it. I will take Del Pos serving over Cilics all day.

Ya man I love puting serenas in parlays to help them out. She gets so many aces and a lot of WTA matches go to the tiebreak.

Good luck man.

Good luck to you too.

Dmoneytx · 03-26-12, 03:35 PM

Great comeback by Ferrer to win first set in tiebreaker!!! Hope he wins for ya D!!!

Demonata · 03-26-12, 03:39 PM

Ya man thanks. I'm nervous though. Ferrer should win though. He just needs to not get so many unforced errors this set. He is better at Benneteau at everything.

Dmoneytx · 03-26-12, 03:52 PM

Niki, I am actually looking at Ivanovic/V Williams tonight. What do ya think??? Venus HAS to be tired! She looked exhausted her last match, ALSO,long 3 setter. Ana is playing really really well! Even if she losses, it will be super close, like 3 sets. I personally think, Ivanovic will pull this match out. Williams had like 8 double faults last match & Wozniak actually had like 16 break chances against her. Ivanovic only had to face 2 break points, although she lost both, but she had around 12 or so on Hantuchova I think.....
I expect a close match actually, but I just see Ana taking this one. What do u think????

Dmoneytx · 03-26-12, 04:35 PM

Glad Ferrer won for ya D!! Sweet

Niki, I think you are playing your finals as D and I have been posting all afternoon in your thread. I am curious..........want to know how you did!!!! Let me know asap pls. And get back to me on the Ivanovic/Williams when u can bro. I know how it is after a long or tough match. Hoping you kicked some ass today. I have lessons for next few hours. I'll check back when I can.

Dmoneytx · 03-26-12, 09:55 PM

Monfils loses in 3 sets, double faults at 4-4 in the third, wow........ Basically gave it away. I have quickly remembered why my little brother & I used to call him a freaking CLOWN!! Will probably be a long time before I take that fool again. Locks or no locks, he's so overrated by the public, I just thought he could take out Monaco. I thought wrong. ARG!!!

Nikigreat · 03-26-12, 09:58 PM

Here I am.
Unfortunately I lost 5-7 6-0 4-6. I was too slow with legs and footwork, cannot do my game and I let the initiative to him to much, thing that I usually don't do. By the way it's ok, now I'll have the third day of the National Team Championships, we are doing well since we won 11 matches and lost 1 so far.
And yes, in our zone of Italy the 80-90% of courts are on clay, but lately some club with hard courts or synthetic ones was born.
Williams - Ivanovic already started, could write only now sorry; I liked the Over 20.5 here, Ana is clearly better from the baseline but if Venus serves well I think this can pass the games line even if finishes in two.
I check the score now, it's *4-5 Ivanovic first set.

About my plays, it's a 2-2 day with a little loss, really disappointed with myself because had a particular feeling on Fed - Roddick match but I wasn't brave enough to pick Andy ML. Liked Fish, Gasquet Over or Verdasco and I picked Verdasco lol.
Ok, into the next one.

SFGiants93 · 03-26-12, 10:26 PM

I was surprised you picked Verdasco because you said:

"It's a sensation. Lately it happened many times that when two players face each other two times in a row the winner of the first loses the second one. Also happened that head to head counted 0 and since Kubot leads 3-0 I take Ivo."

Verdasco beat Almagro last month on clay and today Almagro won.

Nikigreat · 03-27-12, 02:51 AM

Originally posted by SFGiants93

I was surprised you picked Verdasco because you said:

"It's a sensation. Lately it happened many times that when two players face each other two times in a row the winner of the first loses the second one. Also happened that head to head counted 0 and since Kubot leads 3-0 I take Ivo."

Verdasco beat Almagro last month on clay and today Almagro won.

You're right, but in this case I could value their earlier matches, and Almagro had some risk in first set with Goffin and conceeded a lot of break points, while Verdasco was perfect against a player of similar level like Phau. So I thought that if they would have hold the same level facing each other Fernando had more chances; moreover, as you said, that last head to head was played on a different surface.
I couldn't see the match but checking stats it seems Nicolas raised his game and especially his serve and deserved to win.

By the way if we check only Miami this particular "loss" of head to head happened many times:
Karlovic (0) d. Kubot (3)
Baghdatis (0) d. Mayer (2)
Gil (0) d. Bellucci (1)
Davydenko (0) d. Blake (7)
Tipsarevic (0) d. Nalbandian (2)
Isner (1) d. Davydenko (2)
Anderson (1) d. Querrey (6)
Gasquet (0) d. Ramos-Vinolas (1)
Almagro (3) d. Verdasco (7)
Roddick (2) d. Federer (21)

And this happened with women too but I can't check that now.
The last one was yesterday with Li (0) d. Lisicki (2)

Dmoneytx · 03-27-12, 08:34 AM

Sounded like a good match Niki! You really took it too him in the second set huh?? That's the key with tennis though. It all starts with footwork & if you are even a little off some days, it makes it really tough to beat a good player. Sound like u gave a great effort though. Good luck on the team matches coming up. 11-1 is a hell of a record

Looking at the board now, I'll post a play if I like something. And I did just check that Monfils box score & it looks like he was up 4-2 serving 30-Love in the third set. That actually made me feel quite a bit worse since that was my only play yesterday. What a CHOKE job by Monfils. Ouch......

Hoping for a good play today, maybe two. BOL to all of us

Demonata · 03-27-12, 08:57 AM

I need Tsonga and Tipy to win today.

Nikigreat · 03-27-12, 10:11 AM

Miami
Janko Tipsarevic - Grigor Dimitrov
Pick: Number of Games: Over 21.5 @ 1.9 [-111]

BetVictor

Miami
Jo Wilfried Tsonga - Florian Mayer
Pick: Number of Games: Over 21.5 @ 1.75 [-133]

BetVictor

Miami
Rafael Nadal - Kei Nishikori
Pick: Number of Games: Over 18.5 @ 1.8 [-125]

BetVictor

Miami
Na Li - Maria Sharapova
Pick: Na Li @ 2.4 [+140]

BetVictor

Really sorry if even today I cannot write more than my picks, but I'm pretty busy.

@ John: so sorry for you; I was certain Monfils would have won that third set but he wasted that break leading in a so bad way and Monaco from that moment believed again to have a chance and managed to win.