Nikigreat Tennis Picks

[Nikigreat]

I pass on Granollers; if he only had some result this year I would have picked him, but don't like to pick a player with a bad 2012 so far.

[Nikigreat]

Tomorrow Dolgopolov will be my main play, but I don't know yet if taking him winner now (odd will fall for me) or wait for the handicap odd that has to come out yet.
Now I see him @ 4.33 on BetVictor... I'll think about.

[JohnnyRudeboy]

Took the same wager with 2 more, Federer and A. Murray. Kinda stupid in retrospect for a bonus 12 cents on the dollar, but good luck to us

Triple
Bernard Tomic - Tommy Haas, Potito Starace - Alessandro Giannessi, Juan Ignacio Chela - Cesar Ramirez
Pick: Bernard Tomic, Potito Starace, Juan Ignacio Chela @ 2 [+100]
Why: I didn't see great results by Haas this year. He is probably never back the player he was for all these injures he had, the last one in January. 2012 will probably be the year of the explosion of Tomic; even if he already did QF in Wimbledon last year, I think in this one he will find the solidity he needs to stay with the top players on the ranking. Don't forget this year Tomic lost only by Murray and Federer, and last week by Dodig, who by the way is not a good player to face on indoor and then lost with the winner of the tournament Melzer in the tiebreak of the third set. In Delray there are hard courts where Tomic suits better, I can't see him losing two times in a row at first round, and between the rising young and the old decadent I choose the first.
It's the moment for Potito to start making some result on his surface. Won with Capdeville, lost by Berlocq and then lost by Almagro in Buenos Aires (7-6 in the third). That amazing fight with Almagro confirms the good shape of Potito who was just unlucky with the draw; I can't see him losing by the young countryman Giannessi, who by the way is a player to watch for Italy in the future.
Ramirez is a good clay courter at Futures level, but in the end he only has 29W/22L on clay career and Chela should have an easy first round tonight.

Pinnacle

[Nikigreat]

Took the same wager with 2 more, Federer and A. Murray. Kinda stupid in retrospect for a bonus 12 cents on the dollar, but good luck to us

Starace on court now, 6-2 first set. We are on the right way.

[Nikigreat]

Just rediscovered Twitter and adding all the Tennis players I find.
You can also find some nice curiosity; for example Del Potro just twitted he arrived in Dubai, at 2 AM.
Yeah I'll definitely go on Dolgo tomorrow.

[Nikigreat]

History
Parlays: 7-6 [+11.26]
Dogs: 5-7 [+0.23]
Favorites: 4-1 [+8.63]
Over: 1-0 [+4.50]
Futures: 1-3 [+1.31]

Total: +25.94

Well done with the parlay, now up with today picks.

[Nikigreat]

Dubai
Alexsandr Dolgopolov - Juan Martin Del Potro
Pick: Alexsandr Dolgopolov + 4 games @ 1.96 [-104]
Why: The main reason of this play is the weariness that Del Potro should have. As I wrote yesterday, I checked on his Twitter that he came in Dubai at 2:00 AM and didn't even had the time to rest well. Moreover he comes here from two weeks full of matches in a row. I take the handicap because if Juan Martin still have some energy and can brings home this match I see him winning with a close score, naturally Dolgo's serve will have to work well, but I see him as a player who is slowly recovering a good shape and today has everything to play a good match.

Pinnacle

[Nikigreat]

Dubai
Marcos Baghdatis - Jo Wilfried Tsonga
Pick: Marcos Baghdatis + 1.5 set @ 2.16 [+116]
Why: I have not seen the best Tsonga in Marseille for sure. Baghdatis in an interview two days ago said (in a joking way I suppose) that he's ready to be the one who will stop Djokovic here. Well, for me it's enough he takes a set today. Marcos seems to like this tournament and plays well here, he did Semis in 2010. Useless to say that his serve percentage must be high today, and if he manages to inhibit Tsonga's power shots and will use angles to build his points the cipriot has a chance even to win, and I need just one set won by him.

Pinnacle

[apurvaas]

i see line at +4 for Marcos at -125
I have tsonga in one of my parlay where the winning will be 850 bucks (risk 300)
Thinking of hedging marcos ML for 100 bucks to hedge!
What ya think niki?

[Nikigreat]

i see line at +4 for Marcos at -125
I have tsonga in one of my parlay where the winning will be 850 bucks (risk 300)
Thinking of hedging marcos ML for 100 bucks to hedge!
What ya think niki?

Well, you can see up what I think of this match, Baghdatis as a chance for me.
If Tsonga is the last one you need in that parlay, hedge something. Then do what you believe best and good luck.

[crblahblah]

Hey Niki, how do you feel about the over 22.5 (+107) on the Ljubicic-Cipolla match? Ljubicic has been struggling and Cipolla had a nice win over Seppi last tourney. Ljubicic has played in a tiebreaker the last 4 out of 6 matches (all against middling competition) and I don't really see either running away with it.

[Nikigreat]

Florianopolis Challenger
Fernando Romboli - Gastao Elias
Pick: Fernando Romboli @ 3 [+200]
Why: Can't miss this pick at that odd. Elias comes from 4 loss in a row on the surface, Romboli played well and qualified here. Elias has not even a great record on clay and in the last times seemed to prefer hard courts.

Stats: Elias is 0W/4L on clay in 2012 and 58W/47L in career; Romboli is 4W/3L on clay this year and 188W/101L in career.
Romboli won the only head to head in 2010 6-4 3-6 6-1 at Campos do Jordao (hard)

BetVictor

[Nikigreat]

Hey Niki, how do you feel about the over 22.5 (+107) on the Ljubicic-Cipolla match? Ljubicic has been struggling and Cipolla had a nice win over Seppi last tourney. Ljubicic has played in a tiebreaker the last 4 out of 6 matches (all against middling competition) and I don't really see either running away with it.

Really hard because Cipolla has one of the variest game of the ATP but it's pretty weak at the same time. If Ljubicic finds a good day can win easy in straights, but in the opposite way if Cipolla holds his own game to a good level he can also go for a set if not for the win. For me the over hits only in case of three sets.
Really hard to predict this, but if I am obliged to choose I would go with the over joking in a good match of the italian.

[Gndias]

ai ai ai i was going with my homeboy elias..now you got me thinking

[Nikigreat]

ai ai ai i was going with my homeboy elias..now you got me thinking

Well I still give 55% Elias - 45% Romboli, so it's not sure for me neither that Romboli will win, but at that odd with the percentages I gave to the players is a must play.

[Nikigreat]

What a nice a start: Baghdatis served to win the set on 5-4 and lost 7-6, now lost a game from 0-30 up on Tsonga serve. I'm pretty angry because watching the first set I realised the play was right. Let's hope for this second set.

[Living The Dream]

I am thinking of a very small wager on Becker +1000 over Berdych. I really liked Beckers serve vs Raonic (if that's how its spelt) and this is a huge dog. What do you think? I missed out on going against Davydenko which I backed off last second

[Living The Dream]

Tsonga is looking very tired.. if Baghdatis can just get this break back....

[Nikigreat]

I am thinking of a very small wager on Becker +1000 over Berdych. I really liked Beckers serve vs Raonic (if that's how its spelt) and this is a huge dog. What do you think? I missed out on going against Davydenko which I backed off last second

Berdych too serves very well but is of another level in the baseline shots.
If you trust the way Becker is serving you may consider to play the handicap or the over games.

[Living The Dream]

Betislands doesn't offer handicaps or totals

[Nikigreat]

Unbelievable, Tsonga served 5 games in second set so far, was 0-30 in 3 of them and Baghdatis wasn't able to break one single time and got broken on the first break point ge conceeded!!!

[Nikigreat]

Betislands doesn't offer handicaps or totals

So if you feel Becker has a chance put a small amount on him.

[Living The Dream]

I did, only $10.. pays $100 if he can do it. It's a shot for 10 to get 100

[Nikigreat]

I CANNOT BELIEVE IT! Tsonga wasted two match points while serving 5-4 and Baghdatis had another break point and what dose he? Court open, just have to close the point and he did a nonsense (non)dropshot out of two meters! Than again failed 2 easy forehand et voilà, game set and match Tsonga. Unbelievable.

[Nikigreat]

Wow, from bad to worse: Romboli lost serve in the first game, than he has
three break point to instant recover and obviously wastes everything.

[Nikigreat]

I did, only $10.. pays $100 if he can do it. It's a shot for 10 to get 100

Good luck

[Nikigreat]

Double
Roger Federer - Michael Llodra, Flavia Pennetta - Arantxa Parra-Santonja
Pick: Roger Federer - Flavia Pennetta @ 1.22 [-450]
Why: Yeah this is ridiculous, but I'm still so angry by Baghdatis that I go here with a big stake. Llodra will be very tired from Marseille and Roger is Roger. He defeated him two times and today will probably be the third.
Pennetta is up 4-1 in head to head and Parra is playing really bad in this period, so I don't think there will be problem for Flavia tonight.
In reality I was adding some other to this parlay but didn't know that in BetVictor when you go to to select your plays it doesn't ask you a second confirm, that's why this ridiculous double came out.

BetVictor

[Gndias]

what do you think about jeremy chardy today? thinking of going with him today

[apurvaas]

Well, you can see up what I think of this match, Baghdatis as a chance for me.
If Tsonga is the last one you need in that parlay, hedge something. Then do what you believe best and good luck.

I was confused to get Baghdatis +4 or ML... saw your post on Baghdatis so obviously wouldn't have asked you to take player
Peace!

[Nikigreat]

I was confused to get Baghdatis +4 or ML... saw your post on Baghdatis so obviously wouldn't have asked you to take player
Peace!

Oh sorry, misunderstanding. What did you in the end?

[Nikigreat]

what do you think about jeremy chardy today? thinking of going with him today

I give 70% to Chardy, Machado is a fighter, but the french serves much better and is not playing bad so go with him

[Gndias]

tks i am going with chardy

[apurvaas]

Oh sorry, misunderstanding. What did you in the end?

got busy so couldn't get anything...
Putting a parlay for tomorrow.. Will ask for your opinion 1st before confirming!
Have 1 open parlay with 9 spots
Playing Ferrer, Pennetta and Almagro tonight and 9 spots remaining..

Thinking of filling with

Novak Djokovic ML vs Sergiy Stakhovsky
Janko Tipsarevic ML vs Flavio Cipolla
Andy Murray ML vs Marco Chiudinelli
Tomas Berdych ML vs Lukas Lacko
Juan Martin del Potro ML vs Andrey Golubev
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga ML vs Lukas Rosol
Roger Federer ML vs Feliciano Lopez
M.Llodra/N.Zimonjic -ML vs M.Ilhan/M.Jaziri
Agnieszka Radwanska ML vs Akgul Amanmuradova

[Nikigreat]

Seems ok, even if I see one surprise in Dubai tomorrow but maybe I'm wrong.

[Nikigreat]

Tomorrow first play: Roger-Vasselin + Kudryavtsev,
motivations in 4-5 hours, now I go back to sleep.