Nikigreat Tennis Picks

**Nikigreat** · 02-14-12, 03:37 AM

Double
Mikhail Youzhny - Igor Kunitsyn, Rik De Voest - Andreas Seppi
Pick: Mikhail Youzhny, Andreas Seppi @ 1.97 [-103]
Why: Mikhail and Igor come togheter from the Davis against Austria. Youzhny played only doubles, while Kunitsyn played two singles. By the way Mikhail is superior than his team mate and he has only to play even a little worse than he did in Zagreb where he won the tournament to get this.
Seppi lose at fifth by Stepanek and then at third in a "friendly" with Rosol, but I saw it pretty solid especially against Radek. De Voest is good on this court but have to play at 100%, in particular with the serve if he won to have a chance. Andreas have to do his game from the baseline and take opportunities when Rik is serving as soon as he can. I think he will do it.
Stats: Kunitsyn is 1W/5L in 2012, Youzhny won Zagreb on indoor two weeks ago.

Ladbrokes

**Nikigreat** · 02-14-12, 06:01 AM

Never pick an italian when is favourite, i know it and I still do it.
Seppi lost 6-1 then 3-0*, 3-2*, now again *4-2. Seems such an agony.

**Nikigreat** · 02-14-12, 06:07 AM

And Seppi lost the break another time!! Come on, this is not WTA!

**Nikigreat** · 02-14-12, 06:43 AM

Another break point wasted by Andreas. Hold serve, then wastes a set point again.
Tiebreak: Seppi lead 5-1tried to lose it in every way but closed on 6-5.
Third set.

**Nikigreat** · 02-14-12, 06:57 AM

Let's see how Seppi manages to lose this match after being up 2-0 15-40 on De Voest serve.

**Nikigreat** · 02-14-12, 10:58 AM

Seppi won.

Di Grassi took first set 7-6, 15/17 with first serve, 12/17 with second, will be very nice if he keeps serving like that.

**Nikigreat** · 02-14-12, 11:05 AM

Originally posted by Nikigreat

Di Grassi took first set 7-6, 15/17 with first serve, 12/17 with second, will be very nice if he keeps serving like that.

Forget about that, first game of the second set, first break point to save, break.

**Nikigreat** · 02-14-12, 12:39 PM

Grassi lost 6-7 6-4 6-4, he should have won, I would do this pick again, bad luck.
Need Youzhny to stay up in this day, by a little, but at least up.

**Nikigreat** · 02-14-12, 03:24 PM

Damn, i was out and when I came back
i completely forgot to play Davydenko, the only real play I wanted to do today

**Nikigreat** · 02-14-12, 04:32 PM

This match seems fixed.. 6-0 Youzhny first set.
First game of second set Kunitsyn broke at 0. Then Youzhny holds his turns easily and Kunitsyn fights in every game he serves but never gets broken. Youzhny now makes every kind of mistake... really strange.

**Nikigreat** · 02-14-12, 05:29 PM

At least Youzhny won, 6-0 6-7 6-0. I close with a little profit the day, better than nothing.

History
Parlays: 1-2 [-0.12]
Dogs: 1-2 [+0.37]
Favorites: 1-0 [+2.56]

Total: +2.81

**Nikigreat** · 02-14-12, 06:06 PM

Treble
Robby Ginepri - Xavier Malisse, Roger Federer - Nicolas Mahut, Agnieszka Radwanska - Anne Keothavong
Pick: Xavier Malisse, Roger Federer, Agnieszka Radwanska @ 2.03 [+103]
Why: Would be very very surprised if Agnieszka and Roger won't win tomorrow. I add them to get at least a total odd of +100. The true pick here is Malisse. Xavier retired at AO and never played since that time. If it's healthy he can defeat Ginepri who is pretty inconstant and it's not getting any important result, just something at Challenger level like a Final at Honolulu. Malisse defeated him on indoor in 2006, today can repeat that result if is in good condition. By the way my book gives void if a player retires so no problem if he's not, but I think the belgium it's okay and ready to play
Stats: Head to head 1-1: Malisse won the indoor one 6-4 6-3 at Lyon in 2006

Ladbrokes

**Nikigreat** · 02-14-12, 06:17 PM

Double
Potito Starace - Paul Capdeville, David Nalbandian - Benoit Paire
Pick: Potito Starace, David Nalbandian @ 1.98 [-102]
Why: David played only Australian Open so far, but seems a good Nalbandian who took Isner to fifth set. Now he goes on the clay, where he played two days ago, and played very well defeating F. Mayer 3-1 in Davis. Paire is not to undervalue, is a growing up player and his best number, could be strange, are on clay. But he played exclusively on hard since now and that is a good advantage for the argentine, who will take this if plays focused and then can even do a very good tournament here.
Potito took a set to Zagreb finalist Lacko on a surface that he doesn't like so much, so it's in a good physical shape. Now it starts the tournament where he has to get the better result, since he wins very few matches on hard courts. Plays Capdeville who is not playing bad, but has always lost against the italian.
Stats: Starace leads head to head 2-0: both on 2011, both on clay.

Ladbrokes

**Nikigreat** · 02-14-12, 07:02 PM

Sao Paulo
Blaz Kavcic - Jeremy Chardy
Pick: Blaz Kavcic @ 3 [+200]
Why: Trust in Kavcic, the odd is too high for me, Blaz has a very good record on clay and his way of play and of fighting is just what a player like Chardy doesn't need; in fact we have a significant head to head in favour of Blaz. I give at least 50% to Kavcic so at that odd he has to be picked quickly.
Stats: Chennai 2011 (Hard): Kavcic d. Chardy 6-3 6-2, Kavcic is 186W/114L on clay

Ladbrokes

**Nikigreat** · 02-14-12, 07:13 PM

I have to wait odds to come out on Lepchenko - Georges on my book, should be between 3.25 [+225] and 3.50 [+150] and I will pick Lepchenko for sure.

**Nikigreat** · 02-15-12, 03:32 AM

Doha
Varvara Lepchenko - Julia Georges
Pick: Varvara Lepchenko @ 3.5 [+250]
Why: Take her at the expected odd. Lepchenko comes from the qualies and in three matches dropped few games. She already fought with some good players like Kirilenko and HantucHova this year. I like Georges but she's a little overvalued on hard. Both won first round easily, if Julia doesn't serve at the top would have some problem
Stats: Lepchenko is 211W/126L on hard, Georges is 63/55.
ITF Marseille 2010 (Clay): Lepchenko d. Georges 6-4 6-4

Ladbrokes

**Nikigreat** · 02-15-12, 03:44 AM

Bergamo Challenger
Go Soeda - Marius Copil
Pick: Marius Copil @ 1.73 [-127]
Why: Tailing EP here. Soeda flew from Japan two days ago, played a five set match with Dodig (won by 0-2 down) and got crushed by Karlovic. Copil is on his favourite surface and is playing here since last Friday when qualies started. He qualified in easy way, no set dropped, and it's rightly favourite against the japanese today.
Stats: Copil is 9W/3L on indoor in 2012.

Ladbrokes

**Nikigreat** · 02-15-12, 04:58 AM

Doha
Svetlana Kuznetsova - Maria Kirilenko
Pick: Svetlana Kuznetsova @ 1.4 [-250]
Why: No outstanding motivations, but it's more a feeling on this match. Svetlana is back a solid player in last month and began 2012 in good shape. I went against Kirilenko yesterday with Zheng and I have to do it again with Kuz. Maria conceeded many opporunities on her serve and, as said yesterday, she has to be tired after the final in Pattaya, then add the last 3 setter. So great trust in Sveta.
I paired her with AC Milan double chance so the final odd is -131.
Stats: Kuznetsova leads head to head 3-2

Ladbrokes

**Nikigreat** · 02-15-12, 05:22 AM

What's wrong with Copil? Two breaks at the first games of both set and match and then holds easily, but the match is gone

**jsmithj88** · 02-15-12, 05:23 AM

thoughts on the delp/llodra match?
delpo ml dropped to -475 ...........

**Nikigreat** · 02-15-12, 06:08 AM

Originally posted by jsmithj88

thoughts on the delp/llodra match?
delpo ml dropped to -475 ...........

Del Potro should win and do even a good tournament, but Llodra is really Dangerous on indoor so I'm not gonna touch that.

**Pherst** · 02-15-12, 07:53 AM

Originally posted by Nikigreat

Del Potro should win and do even a good tournament, but Llodra is really Dangerous on indoor so I'm not gonna touch that.

I'm heavily invested in Del Potro.... Fingers crossed but in hindsight shouldn't have touched it...

**showmdamoney** · 02-15-12, 12:09 PM

Nice pick with Lepchenko.

**EdwardHaney** · 02-15-12, 12:25 PM

Tremendous job on Lepchenko. I was one day early fading Goerges but you nailed it!

**Nikigreat** · 02-15-12, 02:36 PM

Originally posted by Pherst

I'm heavily invested in Del Potro.... Fingers crossed but in hindsight shouldn't have touched it...

Del Po fought as expected but at the end won, good for you

**Nikigreat** · 02-15-12, 02:42 PM

Originally posted by showmdamoney

Nice pick with Lepchenko.

Originally posted by EdwardHaney

Tremendous job on Lepchenko. I was one day early fading Goerges but you nailed it!

Thanks guys. Lepchenko shines my day after the shadows of Malisse and Copil's picks.

Kuz won and Starace won, so need Nalbandian in tennis and AC Milan in soccer to close two good doubles.

**Pherst** · 02-15-12, 04:11 PM

Originally posted by Nikigreat

Del Po fought as expected but at the end won, good for you

Thanks. Didn't see the match but saw the result. Lucky...!!!

**Nikigreat** · 02-16-12, 03:19 AM

History
Parlays: 3-3 [+5.2]
Dogs: 3-3 [+5.37]
Favorites: 1-1 [-0.74]

Total: +9.83

**Nikigreat** · 02-16-12, 05:17 AM

Double
Philipp Kohlschreiber - Andreas Seppi, Alex Bogomolov Jr. - Richard Gasquet
Pick: Philipp Kohlschreiber, Richard Gasquet @ 1.95 [-105]
Why: Sorry for delay, I am at work. Seppi fatigued with De Voest, while Kohl won an already lost match coming back from 3-4* in the third with Granollers. There is not an enormous technique difference, but I think the mental solidity of the german will make the difference. For me Kohl wins the 90% of the matches he can win. Don't forget he lost only by Nadal, Rochus, Del Potro and Berdych this year.
Don't let us influenced by the set lost by Gasquet with Cipolla; it's really not easy to play against the tricky italian. On the other side there is Bogomolov who is here thanks to the withdraw of Stakhovsky (with he should have lost if at 100%). Alex is not in a great moment and with a careful play Richard has to win this.
Stats: Kohlschreiber won last two head to head with Seppi.

Ladbrokes

**Nikigreat** · 02-16-12, 05:37 AM

Begamo Challenger
Dusan Lajovic - Maxime Authom
Pick: Maxime Authom @ 2.1 [+110]
Why: I can't miss this pick on a player who is 12W/2L on indoor in 2012. Lajovic dropped a set to Olivetti who is not bad on the surface, bad 388th in the ranking by the way. Authom won 6-3 6-2 with that fighter of Navarro, a no gifts player, that means the belgan is finding his shots and is in good shape.
Stats: Authom is 12W/2L on indoor in 2012, Lajovic is 5/3 in total in 2012

Ladbrokes

**Nikigreat** · 02-16-12, 06:01 AM

Oh what a start, Kohl lost 4-6 first set after leading 3-0.

**Nikigreat** · 02-16-12, 06:24 AM

Don't know what happened to Philipp; won 3 games since being up 3-0 in the first set.

**Pherst** · 02-16-12, 08:02 AM

Enjoying your thread mate. Well structured posts and a good viewpoint on the matches. Congrats on the results too - not a bad record at all so far. Keep it up!!

**Nikigreat** · 02-16-12, 08:14 AM

Rotterdam
Victor Troicki - Jesse Huta Galung
Pick: Jesse Huta Galung @ 3.4 [+240] + Troicki 2-1 @ 3.75 [+275]
Why: I need Huta Galung to win a set here. Troicki is not so solid in this period; lost by Bogomolov, by Kukushkin at AO and lost a set with Ryderstedt in Davis. Huta Galung is 6W/0L indoor, won 7-6 6-3 with Ljubo in first round and play at home. For me he can win, but I hedge with the set betting 2-1 for Troicki and I would have a good gain anyway.
Stats: Huta Galung is 6W/0L on indoor in 2012.

Ladbrokes

**Nikigreat** · 02-16-12, 10:15 AM

Originally posted by Pherst

Enjoying your thread mate. Well structured posts and a good viewpoint on the matches. Congrats on the results too - not a bad record at all so far. Keep it up!!

I really appreciate

I have the same number of correct picks and wrong picks it's true, but handling the units putting more where I was more sure I managed to have a good positive for now.