EP36's Tennis Elbow

[EaglesPhan36]

It's Challenger Day!

Parlay: Brands + Kudla [+195]
Did not want to lay -150 on Brands because that dude has a way of f*cking you at a price. Still, the surface suits him better than Knittel and he has a chance to avenge the Championship loss at this tournament last year in the 1st round. Knittel really had little experience and still does on this surface outside of winning here last year. Maybe lightning strikes twice, but the books aren't stupid setting him as a dog ... so I'll oblige. Kudla is in Honolulu and should be high on confidence after a beatiful run through qualis in Melbourne and making the main draw. He even won a set off Tommy Haas and played him tough, losing in four sets. He draws Yang, a Challenger traveler who has done most of his work in the Far East. Kudla beat guys in Melbourne who are tougher than Yang, so if he's here to compete - this is a match he needs to win as he tries to start his climb in the rankings.

[showtiime]

Like your reasoning on Berrer EP, played the over myself.

EZ $$$

[EaglesPhan36]

I have an interesting theory for the Kvitova-Errani match.

1st set prop betting:
Kvitova, P 6-0 @ 10/1
Kvitova, P 6-1 @ 5/1
Kvitova, P 6-2 @ 33/1
Kvitova, P 6-3 @ 14/1
Kvitova, P 6-4 @ 12/1
Kvitova, P 7-5 @ 12/1
Kvitova, P 7-6 @ 12/1

My personal opinion is there should be no way in hell that Kvitova even drops a set to Errani. Might be tight in the 1st as she gets used to her junk ballin', but I may play all seven of these outcomes - for very small change mind you ... like $5 each. If anything but 6-1 is the result, you make some money. 6-1 hits, you lose $10 with the stakes I said above @ $5. Of course if she does blow it, you lose $35. But with most of those scorelines paying over 10.1 ... chances are you could return between 1.5-2x your initial investment.

I dunno just something I was thinking about for fun because the rest of the lines for that match aren't great IMO. Interestingly, three of her four 1st sets in Melbourne would hit on the biggest odds here @ 6-2 for 33/1. I wouldn't suggest doing this for a lot of money unless you've got shit to blow, but I may just try it for shits and grins.

[EaglesPhan36]

Alright Berrer wins it in 3. Let's see what happens with these other mopes.

[showtiime]

tried the under in the Russell / Gawron match for some late night action.

Russell made it tighter than I thought, it looked like he was trying to give that 2nd set away after being up 4-1 then conceding a double break but still an easy cash. That completes the sweep for today.

Don't think Petra drops more than 6 games against Errani, playing the under even though it's square and juiced.

[EaglesPhan36]

Now I remember why I don't bet on Brands. Guy was up 4-2 in the 1st and won two games the rest of the match. I don't remember if he was on the match fixers list, but he should be. Can't believe I missed this first go-round, trying this instead of riding with the youth of Kudla on his own ...

Honolulu Challenger: Bogdanovic +100
This guy once looked like he was going to be the great white hope for the Brits, but he's basically a Challenger level player at age 27. He goes against the mighty mite Tim Smyczek whom he has beaten in all three career meetings, including twice last season. One on hard courts, one on grass. Not seeing anything particular great about either's game, but it appears Bogdanovic being a lefty does trouble the American - especially handling his serve which he has only broken once in those last two meetings. Smyczek is just 6-9 vs. lefties at the Challenger level. Smyczek benefits from playing some qualis in Australia, while this is Boggo's first-up. This starts sometime after 4pm ET after one of the qualifying matches is done in Hawaii for anyone who cares.

http://www.protennislive.com/framesetperpc.asp?lang=en&ref=www.atpworldtour.com

[beefcake]

I think Kevin Paycheck can play Honolulu until he is 64...Is that guy ever going to retire? Chasing the dream...of $865 second round challenger paydays..

[EaglesPhan36]

Australian Open: January 24th

Parlay: Sharapova + Paes/Stepanek [-122]
Sharapova vs. Makarova. Makarova has had an impressive run for sure: Kanepi, Zvonareva and Serena. Now she gets Sharapova. Masha is 2-0 vs. her, but both were on clay so really moot for this match. Sharapova has looked pretty solid this tournament with the exception of the 1st set vs. Lisicki. How she recovered to dominate the next two sets was very impressive though. At the end of the day, if Sharapova's game is anywhere close to what it has been so far in Melbourne, she's got too much power and experience here for Makarova. Certainly, she's not immune to being beaten if her serve goes wonky, but it's looked about as good as one could expect so far. Should be tight, but I think Masha comes through. The first time duo of Leander Paes & Radek Stepanek have had an impressive start to their partnership in doubles. They nearly beat the Bryans in their 1st tournament together in Sydney and now have scalped one of the best duos in Llodra-Zimonjic on their way to the quarters. Butorac-Soares have played well here, also teaming up for the 1st time. Like the experience and passion here for Paes who is seeking a career Slam if he can win the Australian Open doubles title.

Djokovic-Ferrer Over 3.5 Sets [+127]
This should be a great battle. Ferrer is playing the best tennis of his career and we all know that goes about ten fold for Djokovic. I'm expecting Djokovic to be a little more focused tonight without the distraction of playing the hometown boy [Hewitt], but I think Ferrer relentless work on the court will push Djokovic and I think he can take a set .. especially if Djokovic plays somewhere near his level in the Hewitt match. It's a little difficult to gauge how these two match-up now as both are playing at completely different levels than at most points from their previous meetings. Even last year's meetings don't yield much with Djokovic winning easy in a garbage exhibition match and Ferrer doing the same when Djokovic was hurting in London last November. Not a big play, but one I think is worth the plus odds.

[southpaw74]

I like how nishikori has looked. Do you think +8.5 might be a good play?

[EaglesPhan36]

I really don't like anything about that match as far as numbers for Nishikori. Go look at their match last October when both were in good form, Murray blew Nishi out 6-3, 6-0. I would be surprised if he took a set off Murray and wouldn't be surprised if it's a fairly straight forward, straight sets win for Murray. I'd want at least +9 to even take a shot and even that depending on what Nishi has left in his tank might not be enough. For me the only thing I took a look at were the Under if you can get at least 30.5 games or Murray 3-0, but I just felt like a good one to pass on.

[southpaw74]

Thanks EP...I didn't really factor in the fatigue either. I was a little surprised fed won that easily in straight sets last night to.

[EaglesPhan36]

Azarenka +550
Bartoli +5000
Del Potro +3275
Nadal +755

Two still alive.

Added Kvitova +175

[EaglesPhan36]

Kvitova needs to get her act together. She's struggling. This is obviously going 3.

[TeaAndToast]

Looks it Eagles. I got on Errani at 6/1 +1.5 sets there when she was advantage first/second game.

[beefcake]

I;m keeping my mouth shut..

[EaglesPhan36]

Big break back there a second ago, one more break and then finish this junk ballin' b-hotch.

[TeaAndToast]

Its all change now Dam it. Will go for a smoke here so as to limit the time missed staring at Sharapovas backside.

[EaglesPhan36]

Nice.

[TeaAndToast]

Anyone see anything decent in the next? Sharapova vs. Makarov

[H1Cypher]

You think Makarova has the skills to push Sharapova to a third set? Her serve can always give away- and that will do. But based on what youve seen of them thus far- what do you think about it going 3 sets?

Oops nevermind see the match has already started.

[EaglesPhan36]

Masha looking really good. Makarova cannot get a 1st serve in and Sharapova is pounding her 2nd serve.

[EaglesPhan36]

I don't know why I even both not muting these ESPN assholes. They've been talking the entire set about is Sharapova nervous? Is she tight? Evert says no. Then she says yes. Shut the fukk up dumb bitches.

[EaglesPhan36]

Big hold Masha.

[EaglesPhan36]

Sharapova dominated that set.

[EaglesPhan36]

Who told me Sharapova wouldn't be the favorite against Kvitova? After this match and Kvitova's little struggle ... I will again be surprised if Sharapova isn't the short favorite or at worst ... a pick 'em. She's been rock solid except for the one set vs. Lisicki.

[MatI]

Are you still thinking Kvitova will win over Shara? Or is this performance making you think otherwise now?

[EaglesPhan36]

Adding this after looking over some stuff.

WTA Doubles: Mirza-Vesnina +105
Excellent to get them at a plus price here. This is a seasoned duo going up against Zvonareva-Kuznetsova who have made a good run here. Mirza & Vesnina though are fresh off beating the talented #2 seeds Srebotnik-Peschke in a tight three set thriller. When they beat some of the best teams last year, they usually made deep runs and won tournaments. Should be a good one.

[EaglesPhan36]

Are you still thinking Kvitova will win over Shara? Or is this performance making you think otherwise now?

If Kvitova plays like the last couple rounds, Sharapova would beat her - no doubt. Will be a huge match for her after how bad she got whooped by Kvitova @ Wimbledon, but she's probably far healthier now over then. Anxious to see a price.

[EaglesPhan36]

Game. Set. Match Masha. Parlay cashes.

[H1Cypher]

I noticed you said you didn't like the Nishikori lines. They are pretty damn tight- if he has one hiccup.. I lose my bet betting on Murray. Guessing most of the money is on Murray- and the books wanna give themselves a chance to win.

How many people are gonna bet the over on Nishikori?

They seem too tight- he can still win in straight sets and screw me somehow.

Aren't I better off taking the over on Ferrer Djokovic and just passing on the under Murray vs Nishi. Thats my thinking right now... bad or good?

[EaglesPhan36]

I don't know, I like both of those bets although I am taking the Over 3.5 sets for Djokovic-Ferrer at plus odds instead of the games.

[gregm]

Nice hit with the parlay and sharapova Eagles. Sometimes I really hate these later rounds not only as a wagerer but as a tennis fan, I love having tons of matches on direc tv to watch and finding one thats exciting.

I actually hope Ferrer makes a match of it with Djokovic, even though I had all the favorites parlayed tonight. I will be glad to win the wager but this has been a dull night of tennis so far.

[gators0708]

Nice hit with the parlay and sharapova Eagles. Sometimes I really hate these later rounds not only as a wagerer but as a tennis fan, I love having tons of matches on direc tv to watch and finding one thats exciting.

I actually hope Ferrer makes a match of it with Djokovic, even though I had all the favorites parlayed tonight. I will be glad to win the wager but this has been a dull night of tennis so far.

The 1st 4 days of the majors are always the best!

[EaglesPhan36]

Yeah I don't expect too many people expected tonight to be very tense except hopefully for some parts of Djokovic-Ferrer at least ... they should show some more doubles matches. When I went to the US Open, I got to watch a women's doubles match and a mixed doubles match. They're pretty fun to watch because with four players on the court, it's like a f-ing ping pong table how fast some of the shots go back and forth.

[gregm]

The 1st 4 days of the majors are always the best!

I agree that the first week is the most fun, so many matches to watch and its so predictable right now. The next few days should be fun though, these are going to be some great semis.