EP36's Tennis Elbow

[EaglesPhan36]

Kinda like the NCAA basketball tournament every year in that respect.

[gregm]

Yeah I don't expect too many people expected tonight to be very tense except hopefully for some parts of Djokovic-Ferrer at least ... they should show some more doubles matches. When I went to the US Open, I got to watch a women's doubles match and a mixed doubles match. They're pretty fun to watch because with four players on the court, it's like a f-ing ping pong table how fast some of the shots go back and forth.

Very true and I am glad to see you wagering on these. Some players like Llodra probably takes these more seriously than the singles matches, and when you look at the domination in the mens game at least, it may be the only title some male players may ever win, even with the small tourneys.

Mixed doubles can be fun to watch with the flirting going on and I love watching doubles matches if the players care. They are going to have it in the olympics this year.

http://www.thetennisspace.com/opinion/mixed-doubles-fun-and-flirty-diversion-or-serious-business/

[EaglesPhan36]

I've been able to win a few bets on them over the years. You gotta really follow and dig for some info on some of them, but normally going with the teams that stay together for most of the year can be pretty profitable ... and also knowing when to fade someone like the Bryans who get over valued in every single tournament and .... they don't win every single tournament.

[xstud]

EP, Do you think Ferrer has any chance against joker tonight? or is even throwing 30 bucks on him a complete waste?

[Laker_crazy]

That's a good play Eagles buddy,I also like the over in the Joker ferrer match but i ll be playing the games won market for ferrer,has been working for me,the line is O/u 13.5.Good luck on the over.

[Boxing Champ]

EP..Shari..any thoughts on this match???
Errani, Vinci - Hlavackova, Hradecká

The above match starts in about 30 minutes..
Do Hlavackova and Vinci play each other 3 hours later in mixed doubles again ???
Did i get that right???

[goblue24]

Who told me Sharapova wouldn't be the favorite against Kvitova? After this match and Kvitova's little struggle ... I will again be surprised if Sharapova isn't the short favorite or at worst ... a pick 'em. She's been rock solid except for the one set vs. Lisicki.

FYI....Sharapova is +115 on 5dimes right now.

[MUHerd37]

Djokovic takes the 1st set 6-4. Had to earn it too.

[MUHerd37]

Djokovic got broken while serving for the 2nd set but managed to win the tiebreak. That was gonna be huge for Ferrer if he had won. Would have been a big momentum swing.

[EaglesPhan36]

Rooting for the overs people if Ferrer can hold twice. I got boned going for the plus money on Over 3.5 sets. Agree with the above post. Ferrer had that 2nd set in his sights, but Djokovic too good in the end.

[MUHerd37]

Djokovic wins in straights!

[MUHerd37]

Wow you just needed him to hold twice? That's a bitch. Only time he lost a set by a double break.

[EaglesPhan36]

Heilbronn Challenger: Phau -140
Faving Ilhan. Ilhan has been terrible for the better part of a year and has a poor record on this surface. Phau is nothing special, but can get hot during selected tournaments and has traditionally done more on this surface in his Challengeresque career. Beat a solid player in Zemlja in his opener who is better quality than Ilhan.

[EaglesPhan36]

PHAU! Yippee. Makes up for a hectic morning @ work. Sheesh. F-ing rain.

[EaglesPhan36]

Honolulu Challenger Parlay: Ito + Sugita [-114]
Ito aganst Kevin "Paycheck" Kim. Ito in good form from Australia where he was in the main draw in Melbourne and picked up a main draw win. Kim had to work through qualis just to get to the main draw here. It Ito is motivated, he wins. Sugita off to a solid start in 2012 as well with a solid showing in Chennai, beating Rochus and Lu before falling to Almagro in 3. Bhambri is his opponent. Bhambri was also in Chennai, scoring a win against Beck before being crushed by Tipsarevic. Nothing in Bhambri's track record suggests he's going to step it up whereas Sugita has been playing main draw matches on the ATP level over the past year and acquitting himself quite well. Double dip on the Japanese today.

[beefcake]

No way you lose fading the "Paycheck"!!!!

[EaglesPhan36]

Hope so beef. I really like both these guys to get it done today. Ito honestly should not be playing a ton of Challengers this year if he can get himself into qualis for main draws - he's about at that level now and when he does play Challengers, he should always beat guys like Kim.

[beefcake]

I see that Robert Kendrick is playing his first tourney after his French Open doping suspension. He got it reduced by a few months after he pleaded to the folks in Switzerland to appeal. Kind of a bullshit deal him getting 1 year for taking a pill on a plane when Odesnink got 1 year for smuggling needles in Australia,Might be someone to fade as a fave do to his time off with not much match play since May 2011.

[beefcake]

Looks like I spoke a bit to late..Venus beat him as +150 dog.

[EaglesPhan36]

Australian Open: January 25th

Clijsters +105
This is a hedge play #1 for me as I do have an Azarenka future, but I also believe Clijsters is the pick here. Mind over body. That's my simple formula here. Maybe Azarenka is going to finally break through. MAYBE she is finally going to keep it together if things get tough. MAYBE this is her defining moment. But who wants to bet on MAYBEs. Clijsters is a known commodity. A fighter's spirit, a champion's heart. From a "game" standpoint, both have solid ground strokes - Azarenka may have a little more pop, Clijsters is the better returner. That's where I think Clijsters can disrupt Azarenka. 1st serve percentage and winning on-serve will be massive here as usual as I'd expect both to pounce on the weaker 2nd serves. Both have done a solid job getting the 1st serve in this week, but in looking back at Azarenka there was a troubling sign for a set vs. Radwanksa in the 1st when she got her 1st serve in 73% of the time, but was only winning 45% of the points. Mind over body. I trust Clijsters not to give in even when she is down. Azarenka has yet to prove that in this big spot as she's failed on both her shots to make Slam finals. MAYBE that ends today and my future holds, but today's money goes against the MAYBE.

Sharapova +120
Also a hedge, but also the play I would make regardless. Revenge is a great motivator. Proving people wrong is a great motivator. Masha has both in her corner. Kvitova dressed her down at Wimbledon in the final last year and champions don't forget. She has also shown sheer determination this week as well as good mental focus. Kvitova has looked a little wonky at times, but her pure talent has carried her through. Power for power, Kvitova can hit it harder than Sharapova. Serve for serve? Kvitova's probably rates a bit better, but Sharapova has shorn her serve up and is serving with much more confidence. If you look at their two meetings, that is pretty much the decisive factor. Sharapova's serve was a wreck at Wimbledon and Kvitova killed both her 1st and 2nd serves. When they met back in 2010, Sharapova was solid on-serve and Kvitova struggled with hers. Kvitova left a ton of break opps on the table for Errani yesterday, but saved 7/11 ... Sharapova has been saving better than 80% of her break opps and if she wins, expect that to be a big part of it. If Masha can get into Kvitova's service games early, I like her to carry through.

Federer-Nadal Props
I rarely bet on sides or totals when these two meet any more. Instead props for me. This first one, if one or the other hits - you profit

Match Ends in 4 sets +138
Match Ends in 5 Sets +225

Even when they've played on the clay @ Roland Garros, straight sets have only happend once and is normally not an option when these two meet.

[shari91]

Good stuff EP! I'm with you on both the women although I have a bit more on Kimmy than Sharpova. Also laid the chalk on my favourite over 3.5. Partly because I just want this to be an epic match (which means it probably won't) but mainly because of the last fact you posted. I just don't see straights happening here on hard. GL to us

[beefcake]

On kimmy as well! Lets get it folks!

[EaglesPhan36]

Bryan Brothers clutch. Down 5-3 in 3rd set tie break, rattled off four straight points to win.

[dlweaver]

I'm on Clijsters ML, spread +1.5, and to win 1st set

[EaglesPhan36]

Shit service game from Kim there.

[Boxing Champ]

What ta fak is she doing???
Clijsters can not get her first serve in...

[Boxing Champ]

Kim..does these stupid mistakes..

[EaglesPhan36]

She's just flat so far and Azarenka is playing very well. She'll need to pick it up in the 2nd.

[EaglesPhan36]

She needs to finish her service games off more efficiently too. She's had a couple up 40-0 and let Azarenka back in.

[Boxing Champ]

EP..why do you think Kvitova is being juiced like crazy right now...Sharapova is +132 now...
P.S. announcers said something about lefties(Kvitova) being at disadvantage at certain times of day, which would be at the time of their match, yet Kvitova is being juiced..

[EaglesPhan36]

That's only ten cents from earlier today. That's really not that much movement.

[Boxing Champ]

Put a cursor on Betfair or pinny..back Kvitova box and you will see the graph...

http://www.betbrain.com/tennis/australia/australian-open-women/maria-sharapova-v-petra-kvitova/

[EaglesPhan36]

If Kim consolidates here, we got a match.

[goblue24]

BOOM! Let's go KIM!

[EaglesPhan36]

Some amazing "gets" by Kimbo in that game, got the consolidation.