EP36's Tennis Elbow

[EaglesPhan36]

might have to mute that match. lol Is Eaglesphan playing the Fed/Rafa match?

I posted yesterday. I took two props. Match ends in 4 sets @ +138 or Match Ends in 5 sets @ +225. Just needed one to hit for a profit. Playing a side or total in many of these Big Four showdowns is tough to win. So that was my main bet.

Glad Maria came through. Cancelled out my Kvitova future and gave me a little extra on top.

[EaglesPhan36]

I get the feeling Federer needs this set much more than Nadal.

[Mikail]

I get the feeling Federer needs this set much more than Nadal.

yeah. Nadal's value increases as the match gets longer.

[EaglesPhan36]

Game. Set. Match. Nadal. Keeps my future alive if he holds on here and it's hard to think Federer is going to stay in this mentally now. Nadal is such a f-ing warrior. Has looked beatable several times this tournament, but shows up in the clutch.

[Yezzir]

I took Rafa near the end of the 2nd at +100. Glad I did, when it's the big matches, he just owns Federer mentally.

[EaglesPhan36]

So now I guess we get to see if Nadal's mental block against Djokovic is as big as Fed's against him ... unless Andy Murray shocks the World.

[Yezzir]

you think Murray has any chance, being a Brit, i'm rooting for him all the way, with my heart. Just have to hope Lendl's influence will help him, although just see Nole being too strong again.

[EaglesPhan36]

Nadal's court coverage is still amazing.

[EaglesPhan36]

you think Murray has any chance, being a Brit, i'm rooting for him all the way, with my heart. Just have to hope Lendl's influence will help him, although just see Nole being too strong again.

I said it in the other thread someone started about that much. If he's going to pull the upset, this is a great spot for him. There really is no pressure on him. It's not a final, it's a semi and Murray has been treated like an outsider for the semis. It was all about Fed v. Rafa and Djokovic makes another semi ... Murray is being treated like an after thought. Yahoo Sports even had their headline as Fed, Rafa and Djokovic advance to semis ... NOTHING about Murray. I have a soft spot for Murray simply because he's always so close and just doesn't get over the hump. I think Djokovic will need to be off for him to have a legit shot ... but Djokovic has had his moments the last two matches where he's looked beatable.

Interested as you say to see what influence Lendl has on a match of this importance.

[Yezzir]

http://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/sport/tennis-news/2012/01/26/australian-open-andy-murray-vows-to-emulate-brutal-tactics-of-coach-ivan-lendl-to-destroy-novak-djokovic-86908-23720541/

Whether he can put this into a game situation, I do sense a more ruthless attitude, which is needed.

Murray said: “I get on with all the guys but you put that to one side and do whatever it takes to get that win.
“If that means hitting them with a passing shot, like Almagro did with Berdych, you do it.”

I especially like this quote.

[EaglesPhan36]

Well glad I decided to let my Nadal future ride - seems like when I think Fed is going to win in these big sitches, he doesn't ... which is why I held on Rafa. Got a future alive in both finals at good odds. Azarenka being a small favorite gives me a good hedge. If Djokovic gets in .... tough to hedge, might see if they repost futures today and grab some Djokovic if he is still available because his straight up price in a final would be big again I'm sure.

[EaglesPhan36]

Honolulu Challenger Parlay: Sugita + Soeda [-110]
Riding Sugita again today after a solid opener yesterday. He matches up with the Canadian Duclos. Duclos had to rally in 3 to beat the youngster Strode yesterday. Duclos has had some moments on this surface in the past year, but Sugita is playing with confidence so far this season and should work through here today. Soeda takes on Capkovic who did beat him last year, but outside of that Beijing tournament did little to impress in 2011. Soeda got on a roll in Chennai knocking off Dodig and Wawrinka, but faltered in Aussie qualis. He started well here and is the better talent on this surface if he holds serve well. Double back on the Japanese again today.

[EaglesPhan36]

Zverev you slog. Blew a 6-3 tie break lead in the 2nd, lost in straights. B-yotch.

[beefcake]

Is Z ever going to regain his form from before. Such a shitty year in '11

[EaglesPhan36]

What do you think about your boy Stebe today against Becker? Becker's serve stats from his first game were monstrous, but he seems to have the consistency of diarrhea.

Old man American Challenger special: Ginepri v. Reynolds in Lulu.

[beefcake]

Like Stebe..others do from the looks, line dropping at 5 dimes. Beckers serve is good no doubt, but these are the matches stebe needs to win to get out of the challenger level.

[beefcake]

Yeah love these american challengers. Pretty much 50% of the draw are Yanks usually. These guys all seem to have played each other craploads of times, hence why many of the lines are around pick. Books have no friggin idea.Might be better to fade the movement on those. You will get a better than +100 dog many times over, over the long haul you might come out ahead grinding it out.

[EaglesPhan36]

I still remember when Becker looked like he was going to be a force with that serve when he busted out in the 2006 US Open, beating Agassi. Then he just fell apart and into what he is now, mostly a Challenger guy.

[beefcake]

Stebe wins! even though becker was punk and could not finish with one game left.He should be a slight dog vs Berrer...Get on that!

[theplagy]

I pounded Djok at -210 for 3 unit and -4.5 game for 2 unit

on top of his +139 future to win...


Biggest bet of this tour,...I just don't see Murray winning 2 sets

[EaglesPhan36]

Australian Open: Semifinals

Murray +230
There is a sense if you look around that Djokovic is not invincible here. I agree with this notion. Be it breathing issues, a hamstring or non hamstring injury, pressure to match 2011 or just an inability to keep the insane level of perfection performed at last season - there have been signs that Djokovic can be had. That being said, he's been good enough in the face of challenges the last two rounds. He's played the big points better and then after facing the challenge, he's put his opponent away. I've said it many times already, several things point to positives for Murray.

History
Only ONCE in the last eleven finals here has the #1 met the #2 for the Championship. That is an amazing number and it's one of the few Slams that has been a breeding ground for surprise Champions year after year. Murray of course cannot be considered a total surprise, he has been here two straight years.

SEMI-Final .. Not FINAL
It may seem silly to some, but there is far less pressure on Murray in this spot than there would be if this were the final. No one is expecting him to get through Djokovic or at least that's the public perception. For all the talk of the "Big Four" - it often comes off like The Three Musketeers with Roger, Rafa & Novak ... and then the 4th wheel, Andy Murray. Murray can play as free as he allows himself here. No one will be surprised in the least if he gets whipped, but if he pushes Djokovic or pulls off the stunner ... his name gets back into the limelight.

The Lendl Factor
Obviously this is the first big test to see how big a factor Ivan Lendl is with Murray. Perhaps it's too soon to expect this sort of result, but one thing is clear ... under Lendl, Murray has been more aggressive, played with an edge and in general, left behind a lot of the whiny brat people loathed.
At the end of the day, Murray is going to have to play near perfectly, serving well and working Djokovic into long rallies and hope that his game is a notch below destroyer mode. Ferrer and Hewitt both showed that you can get into Djokovic's serve. I think the keys for Murray are #1 to hold his own serve, saving break points is CRUCIAL - 80% or better. And #2, if he works Djokovic for some break opps, CONVERT better than 50%. If you look at the sets where Djokovic has been ripe for the taking or dropped, errors play a large part as they go better than 1:1 vs. winners. Murray will need that consistently throughout this match and will need to keep his own ratio under 1:1.

I may be an all-day sucker again, but I feel this one. In a tournament where a finalist seems a surprise to all - the seed may not indicate Murray to be so this year, but the road to get there does. A little history repeating? We shall see. Mind you I am not making a large play on this, but 0.5 a unit.

Prop Shop: First Service Break Djokovic [-155]
I think there will be some breaks of both men's serves in this match, but the first blood in all likelihood goes to Djokovic. He leads all competitors with 37 service breaks this tournament and if you look at Murray, he had a lot of issues getting that first break against Nishikori last match - only converting 1 of 9. Djokovic did only covert 1 of 7 in the opening set vs. Ferrer, but you can see the number of opportunities he gets in each match and likely he will be the one in position to get this done first.

[Mikail]

like the Murray play EP I'm on it also.

[shari91]

Gl ep

[EaglesPhan36]

Adding this which tips in a minute or five ..

Honolulu Challenger: Reynolds -125
Taking on Ginepri. Maybe a sucker price here, but Ginepri is still working his way into form whereas Reynolds started hot in Sydney and finished last year well in the Challenger ranks. Form points to Reynolds from his exploits in Sydney. Both had easy wins to open against lower level competition.

[BB_Mariners]

[quote=EaglesPhan36;13458273]Australian Open: Semifinals

Murray +230
There is a sense if you look around that Djokovic is not invincible here. I agree with this notion. Be it breathing issues, a hamstring or non hamstring injury, pressure to match 2011 or just an inability to keep the insane level of perfection performed at last season - there have been signs that Djokovic can be had. That being said, he's been good enough in the face of challenges the last two rounds. He's played the big points better and then after facing the challenge, he's put his opponent away. I've said it many times already, several things point to positives for Murray.

I completely agree with you on this play. Last year Djokovic struggled against Murray in all matches. In the Rome SF miracle saved him, but Murray got him in Cincy. With this value Murray is the only play.

GL.

[EaglesPhan36]

Reynolds playing like a brick shit house so far in the Challenger. The Japanese are treating me better here, both Japanese parlays hitting the last two days. It's the solo plays that have sucked.

[Boxing Champ]

If we play Murray and Joker pulls out with a hammy injury in the second set.. Do we get paid???
I have 5 dimes..
I guarantee you that if Joker is losing in the second and he feels like he can't win, he will not admit defeat...he will simply grab his hammy and retire....Do we get paid there?? That's the big question..

[EaglesPhan36]

5Dimes is a one set book. Once the set is complete, match counts whatever happens.

Reynolds again showing me why you are a Challenger schmuck.

[southpaw74]

Seems to be a lot of Murray love going on. Should be a great match. Since its unlikely to be a 3 set sweep do you think the over 38.5 is a good play? I'm not sure if I can get behind Murray.

[Boxing Champ]

5Dimes is a one set book. Once the set is complete, match counts whatever happens.

Reynolds again showing me why you are a Challenger schmuck.

Is anyone familiar with hamstring injuries????
From my own experience if you pull a hammy and you feel sharp pain like Joker did...It should definitely
be a reason for concern. I though he would pull out against Ferrer. He should not be 100% today.
Injury like that hurts a lot worse the next day...
I think it can fail him in the middle of the tough match, because Murray knows that and he will try to wear him out..

[EaglesPhan36]

Seems to be a lot of Murray love going on. Should be a great match. Since its unlikely to be a 3 set sweep do you think the over 38.5 is a good play? I'm not sure if I can get behind Murray.

I don't like the number much. Given the propensity Djokovic has for breaking serve, sets can get out of control quick and even a four set match might not hit that number. Shari;s old stand by of Over 3.5 sets might be better for an over, but you have to pay more for it.

All that said, I think it could hit ... but it scares me a little that there will be too many lopsided 6-3 or 6-2 sets.

[shari91]

I don't like the number much. Given the propensity Djokovic has for breaking serve, sets can get out of control quick and even a four set match might not hit that number. Shari;s old stand by of Over 3.5 sets might be better for an over, but you have to pay more for it.

Even though it's cheaper than Fed/Nadal, it's still -188 and I don't take that as a good sign although I guess it's ok for my Djoko bet. If the same guy who played Ferrer shows up tonight, I think he's going to blast him. I hope I'm wrong though... I'd love to see Murray win as a tennis fan (even if it costs me money) so Nadal can take him out in the Final. Would make the start of the season that much better if Nadal can regain some of the confidence he lost last year.

[EaglesPhan36]

Getting Murray @ +250. Booking it now and at least I can say I got a good price.

[Boxing Champ]

Murray to win 3-1 is +570
Murray to win 3-2 is +645
Murray to win 3-0 is +1000(Not gonna happen)

Wouldn't u rather do that???
The only downside is if Joker pulls out due to injury..
You don't win..

[Boxing Champ]

Even though it's cheaper than Fed/Nadal, it's still -188 and I don't take that as a good sign although I guess it's ok for my Djoko bet. If the same guy who played Ferrer shows up tonight, I think he's going to blast him. I hope I'm wrong though... I'd love to see Murray win as a tennis fan (even if it costs me money) so Nadal can take him out in the Final. Would make the start of the season that much better if Nadal can regain some of the confidence he lost last year.

Shari..are you a Nadal fan??