EP36's Tennis Elbow

[H1Cypher]

Good luck H1. Great number and great call. I actually have o2.5 on the Evans fight, I hope Davis can at least keep this one going. I could only get -185 (1.54) on Rashad.

Yeah I hit Evans 3 weeks ago knowing it would go up.

I'm pretty surprised Phil is only at +165 still. Alot of people really have faith in Phils wrestling. Undefeated, and he looks like he has a strength advantage over Rashad. Fortunately, it isn't a modeling contest.

Also- I think people are looking at MMAth for this fight. Lil nog and Rashad easily beat Ortiz. Lil Nog did it much more handily. Lil Nog lost to Davis + the body and the record of Davis. Again totally balonie- but I know alot of people use this thinking. Admittedly I even use it sometimes =p.

I like the over also- good luck to us.

Now back to the tennis......

[EaglesPhan36]

No MMA talk in a tennis thread.


Glad I slept in, what an ass kicking. Congrats to Azarenka on a beautiful tournament. I hope she can be the dominant force women's tennis needs right now. Cashed the better ticket on futures with her against the hedge on Sharapova, so happy with that. Surprised the Bryans not just lost .. but got whipped in the 2nd set. Shit happens though, eh?

[southpaw74]

I fell asleep with the tv on...woke up for a second and saw it was 4-3 in the 1st set and thought it was going to be a tight match...then I wake up now to see sharapova got totally dominated. That's quite a beating for a final!

[EaglesPhan36]

Challenger Parlay: Stebe + Soeda [+161]
I think Bemelmans will be a stiff test for Stebe because of his stout serve, but the all-around game is better for Stebe and he's proven that he can survive big servers this week by outlasting Becker in a tight match. Soeda draws his countryman Ito whom he has beaten the majority of their meetings. Both have had solid starts to the year, but Soeda looks a shade better all-around.

[EaglesPhan36]

Damn it, I had a little weird feeling about Stebe today.

[MrGambler]

I took Bemelmans
Agree with u on Soeda + Ginepri in a very nice parley!

[beefcake]

Yeah my boy tanked it today. Still making inroads though.
Got to hand it to Becker. He lost yesterday and then must have grabbed the red eye to Zagreb to play in the qualies today(he won), funny the guy he was playing odds dropped from 19-1 to 15-1...Guess people thought he might be zonked with fatigue.He plays Lajovic tomorrow, if you can find a line on that the fatigue might be a factor now that he is playing someone who has talent unlike Topic today.

[EaglesPhan36]

One thing Stebe really needs to improve on is his serve, not a good enough weapon.

[beefcake]

Yeah weak is right, with all his challenger scratch he won, hopefully he hired a good Physio and Strength coach..

[EaglesPhan36]

Australian Open Men's Final

Not taking a side or total. I've got futures on both as I've said. I make out better if Nadal wins, but get just above the break even mark if Djokovic wins. Instead, Prop Shop.

Total Breaks of Serve Over 8.5 [-160]
Chalky, but given the nature of both men to be able to pressure the other - I would expect there will definitely be multiple breaks of serve. Djokovic has been broken 13 times in the last three rounds with Murray breaking him seven times in the SFs. Nadal has been much more stout on serve, broken just five times in the last two matches. But, this will be the best returner he has faced all tournament. Both do a great job of making the most of the break opps they get. The US Open match between the two saw an astounding 17 breaks of serve, eight @ Wimbledon. I think it's important this match goes at least four sets to give this the best shot to cash, but despite the chalk here, I do think it's the best prop I have seen.

[DMB40]

ep do you like the over 40.5

ok nevermind just read your above post!!!

[EaglesPhan36]

I said if it got up to 40.5, I would prefer the UNDER. Weather is very hot today. Even though it starts at 7pm or whatever local time in Melbourne, it's going to be 91 or 92 still. Obviously the heat effects both guys, but with all the hoopla surrounding Djokovic and his allergies seemingly yearly when he plays here ... the supposed breathing issue is going to be under the microscope. I'd fully expect Nadal to engage him in as many long rallies as he can. Gonna be interesting to see how the heat plays out, but I think it's another strike against Djokovic and a plus for Rafa.

[H1Cypher]

Safest thing to parlay? I'm thinking over 3.5 sets(i always keep open parlays for times like this lol)

[No coincidences]

Under 40.5 now +100 at 5Dimes EP.

Just a heads-up.

[jimmy007oc]

Does this game live on TV guys?>>? I mean local channel not a cable

[H1Cypher]

Is there anything to this fastest valid serve prop? Is it fifty / fifty and I'm just getting juiced on a coin flip?

[southpaw74]

Does this game live on TV guys?>>? I mean local channel not a cable

Just espn2 as far as I know. That's what all the matches have been on.

[philliesfinest]

Australian Open Men's Final

Not taking a side or total. I've got futures on both as I've said. I make out better if Nadal wins, but get just above the break even mark if Djokovic wins. Instead, Prop Shop.

Total Breaks of Serve Over 8.5 [-160]
Chalky, but given the nature of both men to be able to pressure the other - I would expect there will definitely be multiple breaks of serve. Djokovic has been broken 13 times in the last three rounds with Murray breaking him seven times in the SFs. Nadal has been much more stout on serve, broken just five times in the last two matches. But, this will be the best returner he has faced all tournament. Both do a great job of making the most of the break opps they get. The US Open match between the two saw an astounding 17 breaks of serve, eight @ Wimbledon. I think it's important this match goes at least four sets to give this the best shot to cash, but despite the chalk here, I do think it's the best prop I have seen.

dropped to -140 jumped on it ,pinny had this at 9 1/2 so looks like a good play best of luck to both of us ,hope a long NADAL victory

[EaglesPhan36]

Yeah I booked it at -140 also, glad I waited most of the day.

[philliesfinest]

Yeah I booked it at -140 also, glad I waited most of the day.

now up up-170 again at least we know we got the best price!!!!!!!!

[beefcake]

Yeah my boy tanked it today. Still making inroads though.
Got to hand it to Becker. He lost yesterday and then must have grabbed the red eye to Zagreb to play in the qualies today(he won), funny the guy he was playing odds dropped from 19-1 to 15-1...Guess people thought he might be zonked with fatigue.He plays Lajovic tomorrow, if you can find a line on that the fatigue might be a factor now that he is playing someone who has talent unlike Topic today.

Fatigue comes into play...!!!


Lajovic + 250 winner!!

[Boxing Champ]

Greatest tennis match ever????

[EaglesPhan36]

Longest tennis match ever. I'd rate Rafa-Federer @ Wimbledon in 2008 better and Federer-Roddick @ Wimbledon in 2009 better. This one is right up there for sure with those as 1A/1B/1C. Poor Rafa. Had the match on his racket in the 5th set and couldn't finish.

Won my prop bet, so I'm happy. Great end to a solid tournament.

[EaglesPhan36]

Honolulu Challenger: Soeda +125
All over the Japanese again here today at plus money against Ginepri. Listen, Ginepri has had a nice tournament building confidence with some good wins here. He may very well win, but I don't see the separation the price is suggesting here. Ginepri wasn't that sharp vs. Ito yesterday and he's one of those guys who really needs his serve to work to get his overall game going. Soeda, I think is the more consistent overall player albeit with less potential power than Ginepri. Still, I think his overall conditioning is better here and I think if he can maintain a solid serve, Soeda should hoist the trophy here.

[gregm]

After that 4th set tiebreak I just turned off the computer so live wagering wouldnt take away from the match. I wil never again doubt whatever Djokovic is doing conditioning wise, two incredible 5 setters in a row, incredible show by both of these guys.

I hope Murray can continue his improvement or its going to be complete domination by these two, both are on another level.

[beefcake]

Dam what got into Soeda this year?..Did he go gluten free? Sleeping in a oxygen chamber? Maybe he is pulling a Novak on a MUCH smaller level and looking to dominate in the challengers/lower level 250..

[EaglesPhan36]

After that 4th set tiebreak I just turned off the computer so live wagering wouldnt take away from the match. I wil never again doubt whatever Djokovic is doing conditioning wise, two incredible 5 setters in a row, incredible show by both of these guys. I hope Murray can continue his improvement or its going to be complete domination by these two, both are on another level.

Although it's just one Slam obviously, I think we're going to see a really competitive year from The Big Four and I will be surprised if we don't see the Slam titles spread out among them.

[beefcake]

Well I see Istomin is back to his old tricks, grabbing cheap ratings point as the #1 seed in Burnie this week. I swear that guy is the head leech of the ATP. I have never seen anyone play so many tourneys beating tomato cans to keep grab some scratch. Hey Denis, grow some balls and try and qualify in a 250,A-HOLE...

Duckworth might be a good play here to go far.Or maybe a YANG vs WANG QF match up..

Donkey had to get a Wild Card to get into Montpellier!!

Souza looks like a good bet to bet Volandri the fixer in Vina Del Mar..

[EaglesPhan36]

I gotta start checkin' out those lines. Almost forgot about Burnie. I think an Aussie always makes the final there. I'd look at Duckworth or the f-ing Gooch in the bottom half of the draw to fill that quota.

[EaglesPhan36]

The Soeda man takes the title in straights!

[Nikigreat]

Hi EaglesPhan, I'm new on this forum, check my picks thread here for my presentation.
I read some thread here and there and I saw you're one of the best tennis better in this forum.
I follow Tennis everyday and it will be nice for me to exchange opinions with you.

Starting from tomorrow:
I'm thinking about betting heavily on Lacko against Starace. Lukas is 93/54 on Indoors while Starace is 26/44.
The slovakian did a good AO, beating Ljubo and Young and surrending only to Nadal. I don't even know why the italian has chosen to play here and not at Vina del Mar, since he always gets his best results on clay. What do you think? Is sure enough to go with Lacko or you see something different here?

[EaglesPhan36]

That's a heavy price to pay for Lacko. He should win, but those are prices I don't touch outside of using in parlays.

[EaglesPhan36]

FYI, it looks like Bovada is gong to stay in the Challenger market ... very nice addition.

Also going to attempt to keep an up-to-date record starting with this week since people seem to get off on that sort of thing. I had done a good job up until the Australian Open and then there was one day where this thread turned into a play-by-play thread and I simply got lost with all the pages. Pretty sure for the year I am a little under .500 and probably down some units.

[Nikigreat]

That's a heavy price to pay for Lacko. He should win, but those are prices I don't touch outside of using in parlays.

You see something to pair him?

[Jrod124]

Lacko is insane to play at this price, I agree with EP if u dig it you should consider the HC or maybe the under 21.5 games. At actually had this match around -220 for Lacko, was shocked to see my shop has -345 for the Slovak.

Good Luck though whatever you choose