Raonic* v D. Istomin*pretty soon, Istomin big dog. And I'm Canadian, still think Raonic will lose the final.
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Preview from the Blog.
ATP MARSEILLE
Surface: Indoor Hard
http://www.open13.fr/
A strong field in France this week, headlined by the top seed Jo-Wilfried Tsonga. American Mardy Fish is the 2nd seed and Janko Tipsarevic and Juan Martin Del Potro round out the top four seeds. The defending champion is Robin Soderling who is still out due to illness. A French player has won four of the last six titles here.
Tsonga's quarter is set up pretty nicely for Tsonga to get to the semis. He's got a bye to open and then gets either Mahut or Clement. Two pretty solid players will hold down the bottom part of this quarter with Jarkko Nieminen and Andreas Seppi. Nieminen has to get past Frenchman Edouard Roger-Vasselin, but Nieminen is very strong on this surface and should survive if fatigue doesn't get him from last week. Seppi should oust Cipolla first up. If Nieminen can navigate through to the quarterfinals, he would provide a stern test for Tsonga. Tsonga won this event in 2009, but has been bumped in the semifinals and quarterfinals the last two times. Keep an eye on who matches up against him in the quarters.
Del Potro's quarter is going to be tricky. Even without fatigue from Rotterdam, Del Potro was going to have a tough time surviving this quarter. Davydenko could be his his first opponent after an opening round bye. Davydenko got some much needed confidence in Rotterdam and nearly knocked out Roger Federer. The key here is whether or not Davydenko is fully healthy. He looked like he tweaked a knee or leg issue against Federer, but kept fighting until the end of a hard fought three set loss. If he's close to 100 percent, he's going to give Del Potro some problems and definitely could end Del Potro's session early. Gasquet is the other seed in this quarter. He has not done well here with a 4-5 mark and has only made it as far as the quarters once. He has Soeda up first and then Kunitsyn or a qualifier. It's an easy path, but nothing says Gasquet is going to do much here.
Tipsarevic's quarter is set up nicely for the Serb. A bye and then Mannarino or a qualifier. The top part of the quarter has Ivan Ljubicic and wildcard Paul Henri Mathieu. Ljubicic has been out of form for most of the season and Mathieu is still an inconsistent player as he tries to re-establish himself. There really is no reason to think Tipsarevic shouldn't run roughshod through this quarter. Tipsarevic is 20-6 on this surface in the past year with two titles and another finals appearance. He looked solid in Davis Cup play on a similar surface, so I think he'll be a threat to win this week.
Fish is back on tour for the first time since Team USA's marvelous Davis Cup upset over Switzerland. He will have a bye in the first round and then could see Matthias Bachinger or a qualifier. The other portion of his quarter has Alexandr Dolgopolov and home-standing Frenchman, Michael Llodra. This is going to be an interesting week for Fish. He has not played well on indoor courts in the last year, dropping nine of his last eleven matches on the surface. His best runs on this surface came in the US swing in San Jose and Memphis, so it's a bit curious to see him playing this tournament instead of Memphis. The plus for Fish is that Dolgpolov looked terrible last week and this isn't a great surface for him either. The minus could be that Llodra is stuck in his draw. Llodra has a knack for playing well at these France-based indoor tournaments. He made the final twice here, winning it all once and made the quarters last year. Llodra is a definite dark horse to watch.
Semifinalists: Tsonga, Davydenko, Tipsarevic, Llodra
Final: Tsonga over Llodra
Upset Watch: Rosol over Dolgopolov or Serra over Ljubicic
Player to Watch: Michael Llodra
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ATP MEMPHIS
Surface: Indoor Hard
http://www.memphistennis.com/home
John Isner headlines a strong field in Memphis and it also marks the return of the man, the myth, the purveyor of the J-Bock ... James Blake! More on him in a bit. Isner is the top seed. Andy Roddick, Radek Stepanek and Milos Raonic round out the top four seeds. This draw is littered with talent. Bernard Tomic, Grigor Dimitrov, Denis Istomin, Kevin Anderson, Jack Sock and Ernests Gulbis are all capable on their best days of springing an upset or two on this surface.
John Isner's quarter is full of talent. He'll have to get past a similar style player in Gilles Muller first. Then he could see Dimitrov or Donald Young in the 2nd round. The bottom portion of the quarter features Bernard Tomic as the other seed. Tomic appears to have taken time away from eluding police in Australia to come to Memphis, but he'll have a lot of work to do to elude a first round upset against Ivan Dodig. The hard serving Croat certainly could make Tomic's trip a short one with Tomic only have eight all-time matches on this surface. Isner had the bad fortune of drawing Del Potro in the first round here last year when he came in as the defending champion. Look for a smoother path early, but he will be tested to survive this quarter.
Stepanek leads the 2nd quarter with Kevin Anderson as the 7th seed. The guy I am pleased to see back on tour though is James Blake. Blake has been out due to knee issues since early November. Blake ended 2011 on a surge with a Challenger Final in Sacramento and a semifinal appearance in Stockholm on an indoor surface. His track record in Memphis is not strong though with four first round losses in his last five tries. He gets Sweeting in the 1st round. Blake's website is reporting that he is 95 percent certain of playing this week, so it sounds like rehab has gone well, but there are still some lingering questions. Here's to hoping that Blake comes back healthy whether he wins or not this week. Great to see him back. Stepanek could have a better run this week after some rest. He crashed out to Steve Darcis in San Jose last week. Kevin Anderson though is the player I like in this quarter. A qualifier first-up for him and then Querrey or Falla, both beatable.
Raonic is the top seed in the third quarter. He's got a tricky first-up with the inconsistent Gulbis. Raonic will have to get ready from the quick turnaround from San Jose and that could leave him susceptible to an upset, but he did the same thing last year and made the Memphis final. If he's in the same frame of mind, this is his quarter to take. Bogomolov is the seed on the other side and he's been woeful in 2012. His confidence has to be shaky at-best. He draws Olivier Rochus first and could be leaving the tournament just that quickly. A good American ball bash fest shapes up opposite that match-up with Ryan Harrison and Jack Sock. The two young Americans have never met before. Right now, Harrison has to be considered the favorite to advance. Harrison took advantage of less experienced competition in San Jose and could well do the same with Sock in Memphis. Harrison has a real shot here to make the quarters of successive events and then get handed a paycheck and an exit again from Raonic.
The bottom quarter is a crapshoot. Andy Roddick is the lead seed at #2, but he picked up an ankle injury last week and generally looked like a frustrated player whose game is not working well at all right now. HIs tantrums are great for the sport though, don't deny it. So even if he crashes and burns, it could at least provide for some legen ... wait for it ... dary meltdown moments. HE should however benefit from drawing Xavier Malisse in round one. Malisse looks like he's about three steps ahead of Roddick in the retirement race. Benneteau is the other seed in the top portion of the quarter. He's had a nice season so far, but fell short of the final in San Jose. He draws Petzschner first-up who has been looking like a singles player who has both feet solidly into playing doubles now. Kubot or a qualifier is second. Guys like Bobby Reynolds and Robert Kendrick are floating around as qualifiers this week and I think one of them might make a little noise. Benjamin Becker, Dudi Sela and Xavier Malisse are floating around in this quarter. It's really a who's who of inconsistency, injury and past-their-prime skills. If Roddick was healthy, like last week in San Jose, this would be a good draw for him and he has won two of the last three titles in Memphis. With health and mental strength in question though, this quarter is wide open. I would not be surprised if we see a real surprise come out of this quarter, but I'll side with Benneteau.
Semifinalists: Isner, Anderson, Raonic, Benneteau
Final: Isner over Raonic
Upset Watch: Rochus Over Bogomolov or Dodig over Tomic
Player to Watch: Kevin Anderson
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ATP BUENOS AIRES
Surface: Clay
http://copaclaro.com/atp/
The "Golden Swing" of clay court tennis continues in South America, this time in Buenos Aires. Last week's title winner in Sao Paulo, Nicolas Almagro, is also the defending champion here. He enters as the #2 seed. David Ferrer returns to action as the top seed. Gilles Simon is again on the clay swing as the three seed and another surprising entry, Kei Nishikori is the fourth seed.
Ferrer's quarter sees him with a few potential speed bumps. He could face Leonardo Mayer in the 2nd round. Mayer is fresh off a solid week in Sao Paulo. I don't think he's consistent enough to beat someone like Ferrer, but he could certainly test him. Chela is the 8th seed in this quarter and he gets tested right out of the gate by Albert Ramos. Ramos had a very nice run in Sao Paulo last week with an impressive run to the semifinals. He'll have Chela on upset watch, although Chela made the finals here last year. Fernando Gonzalez and Albert Montanes comprise the other first round match. Gonzo's farewell tour unfortunately looks like it may be void of many wins. If Ferrer gets off to a good start, he should find this quarter workable for a semifinal birth.
Simon and Juan Monaco are the seeds in the second quarter. Simon's decision to play the South American clay tournaments still seems odd. He gets Machado first, but then could face one of the more solid clay guys in Carlos Berlocq. Simon doesn't seem a good fit here again to me. Monaco gets Filippo Volandri in the opening round. Volandri played some shockingly good tennis in Sao Paulo en route to the final where he pushed Almagro to three sets. His consistency outside of Italy is always a question though and I think fatigue along with battling a home-standing Argentine could mean a quick exit. David Nalbandian could be Monaco's second round opponent if he gets by a qualifier. Nalbandian was a victim of Volandri and looks like he might not be ready to face the grind of working all the way through a tournament just yet. He will make Monaco work though and that would be a fun match. This smells like an Argentine bracket. Berlocq or Monaco the likely winner.
The third quarter is an interesting one with Stan Wawrinka as the six seed and Nishikori as the four. Nishikori has a tough match-up against Juan Carlos Ferrero in the opening round. JCF had a tough time recovering from Davis Cup travel last week and lost to Leo Mayer early. He should stand a better chance here in perhaps the best first round match of any of the ATP tournaments this week. Pablo Andujar and Victor Hanescu face off in this quarter along with Benoit Paire being here. Wawrinka gets Zeballos and that will be a tough one for the Swiss. Is Wawrinka emotionally ready after losing in Davis Cup play? He played well in Buenos Aires last year, so if he survives the opener - he could be poised to make another run. This should come down to the victor in the JCF-Nishikori battle and Wawrinka.
The final quarter starts with Almagro as the #2 seed. Fernando Verdasco is the other seed at #7. Verdasco complained of knee pain last week in Sao Paulo, so watch him closely here. His form has been suspect to begin with, so I am not expecting much from him. An interesting first round clash here is Frederico Gil and Thomaz Bellucci. Bellucci somehow made it to the semifinals last week in Sao Paulo despite playing some very uneven tennis. That should catch up with him sooner rather than later this week. If he wins the opener, Almagro could be there to erase him. With Verdasco's status, the top portion of this quarter opens with Blaz Kavcic, a qualifier and Verdasco's first round opponent Eric Prodon in the mix. What that really does is keeps Almagro on track to make the semifinals.
Semifinals: Ferrer, Monaco, Wawrinka, Almagro
Final: Almagro over Monaco
Upset Watch: Gil over Bellucci
Player to Watch: Carlos BerlocqComment -
Parlays: 20-13 [+5.45]
Totals: 1-5 [-5.05]
Dogs: 17-18 [+7.73]
Favorites: 5-6 [-2.45]
Challengers: 11-14 [-1.45]
Doubles: 2-0 [+2.10]
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Overall Record: 55-55 [+6.29]Comment -
Futures Plays
Marseille
Tsonga +275
Llodra +2500
Tipsarevic +900
Memphis
Isner +500
Raonic +250
I do agree on Isner in Memphis. If he shows up focused, he should do well here. Even though Raonic is on a short turnaround, his draw is set up for him to cruise again so long as he can bounce back quickly from the travel. Marseilles, I think Llodra and Tipsarevic are worth the looks at longer odds. Tipsarevic especially to me is nice at this price as he has little excuse not to be in the semifinals and may have a shot at getting to the final too.Comment -
Like the Tips future. Put 70 on it.Comment -
Monday, February 20th
WTA Dubai: Niculescu -115
Good match-up against Kirilenko. I was not shocked that Kirilenko lost early last week after a long week prior in Pattaya. Niculescu beat Kirilenko on a hard surface last October and Kirilenko has lost four straight first rounders at this tournament. Niculescu has been playing well on this surface.
ATP Buenos Aires: Ferrero -125
Interesting match with Nishikori. JCF has looked out of sorts this season in limited action. He got pushed to five sets in Davis Cup play on clay and lost in the 1st round to Mayer last week in Sao Paulo. Still, this is his surface. Nishikori has proven he can win on dirt, but this is a first-up scenario for him and he yet to score a signature win on clay against one of the clay court greats. That is what JCF was, maybe still is. This is the match where we find out if JCF is in decline or still capable. He's played well here before and sounded like he was pleased with where his game was last week in spite of the loss.
ATP Memphis: Dodig +220
Dodig draws Tomic. He may not win here, but Tomic is not very experienced on this surface and hasn't played since a grass trip in Davis Cup play. He also has not played outside Australia this season. When Dodig's serve is on, he is tough so that is what he needs to bank on here. Maybe Tomic is going to take the next step and be consistent more often than not, but certainly the price on him here is not indicative of where this one might potentially end up.Comment -
Fantastic write-ups Eagles. Very well done. Good luck this week.Comment -
Guys, my local is offering Melzer +100 against Istomin. I want to unload big, what do you think?Comment -
Today I like:
Parlay: Ungur + Knittel = +129Comment -
Christ Niculescu was up 3-1 and hasn't won a game since. Love starting the week with WTA flakey fukks.Comment -
Wow. She may not win another game this whole match. Awesome.Comment -
its painful to watch this... Kirilenko isnt doing anything special but Niculescu is just so bad todayComment -
ATP Parlay: Nieminen + Dimitrov [-115]
Nieminen is still one of those underrated guys on this surface in spite of his success. He had a solid week in Rotterdamn and draws Roger-Vasselin first up. ERV is at home in this one, but he's still more of a Challenger-level guy. He can keep it close if he serves well, but Nieminen has shown good resolve in beating Frenchman on their home soil already this year. Dimitrov against Donald Young. Dimitrov has shown ability on these indoor surfaces, he's just been cursed with some tough draws. This should be a better early match-up for him. Young doesn't have any great weapons to use on the surface. As I said last time going against Young on this surface, outside of his run in Bangkok late last season, this surface has not been good to him. If Dimitrov serves to his capabilities, he should be too tough.Comment -
She's either hurt of just exhausted IMO. Either way, a loss on the books to open the week. Yippee.Comment -
One more future to add.
ATP Buenos Aires
Monaco +1000Comment -
ATP Marseilles Qualis: Bautista-Agut [-130]
Bautista-Agut battles de Voest for a spot in the main draw. He's looking to make it 3 for 3 in going through qualis and into main draws this season. Like his service game a little better from day to day over de Voest who seems less consistent.Comment -
Melzer odds going the wrong way
I will wait for best value and still pound it. EP, what is your take on Melzer vs. Istomin?
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Istomin is still a very raw, inconsistent guy. He'll show some flashes here or there, but consistency is not his strong suit. I'd say the win over Benneteau was the best he had all last week. The others there were question marks with all the competitors and he took advantage of them being either in poor form/injured/poor shape. Melzer used to be a solid player on this surface when he was making his run back up in the rankings. It's still a bit tough to gauge where Melzer is right now. He had a nice run in Zagreb and should have confidence from that run and winning in Davis Cup play. His entry is curious though in Memphis because he normally stays in Europe until Indian Wells. One thing worth noting is Istomin's poor record against lefties at the ATP level [3-10].
I don't really see the match as giving a major edge to either guy. Istomin will have had a day plus to adjust to Memphis and rest. If he was playing today, I'd probably take that stab at Melzer and see if fatigue and the letdown from losing a title match got him. But with that day of rest ... it will be interesting. Do remember although at the Challenger level, Istomin has played events back-2-back where he made finals - even won titles - and continued doing well the next week. I just think this is one to avoid for me personally.Comment -
I have a theory.
WTA Memphis: Keys +300
Dushevina is the opponent and comes in from losing in the opening round in Doha. She's got the experience edge obviously against the American teenager, but here's the theory. You lost to Melanie Oudin on an indoor hard court last year around this time. MELANIE OUDIN. If you look at Dushevina's track record on indoor surfaces, it reads like you'd expect: Does well in Russia, fails most every where else. The last time she won a main draw match on an indoor hard court outside Russia was 2006. Is Keys super raw? Yes. Is she talented? Yes. Big serve when it's working and good groundies. Could she get pummeled today and lose in straights? Absolutely. But Dushevina lost to MELANIE OUDIN, one of Oudin's whopping eleven wins in 2011. Half a unit on this longshot an watch the Oudin-oo-doo do do.Comment -
Another wretched Monday. Seems to be how I roll. Always start in a hole.
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I would have never picked Keys to win this match, but you did a great job rationalizing it. Based on the information you provided, I almost decided to go with this pick, but something deep down said to avoid it.
That said, I think this was a very good pick and probably wins a decent percentage of the time.Comment -
She did a great job rallying in the 2nd set. If she could have found a way to win that set, I think she had a legit shot. She rallied from 1-4 down with Dushevina serving to go up 5-1 ... rallied to go ahead 5-4. I thought the 10th game was key. If she could have broken here again there, doubt would have crept in. I think that girl is going to be a player on hard courts with more experience. She is only 17 after all.
Dodig is pissing me off. Blew break leads twice in the 2nd set. Tomic will likely pull this out in a tie break or something, but Dodig has had plenty of chances to even this up.Comment -
Sweet. As I speak, Tomic got broken again to drop the 2nd set. Stop. Dodig time.Comment -
I have Tomic in this one. The first two sets have been quite the roller coaster ride, so I'm sure the third will be similar. Tomic just broke to go up 2-1, but I'm sure he'll give it away. Anyways, best of luck!Comment -
Nah, with the way my day has gone. Tomic will roll the 3rd set out now.Comment -
Dodig, you just made my whole day son. Nice win in the tie break, thought for sure he would fold. That gets me out of the hole dug earlier. Now need some JCF winning in my life!Comment
