EP36's Tennis Elbow

**EaglesPhan36** · 02-15-12, 11:07 PM

[COLOR=#000000 !important] Parlays: 18-11 [+5.77]
Totals: 1-5 [-5.05]
Dogs: 14-13 [+9.25]
Favorites: 4-5 [-2.05]
Challengers: 11-13 [-0.45]
Doubles: 2-0 [+2.10]
-----------------------
Overall Record: 49-47 [+9.57]

Well even though it looked like the dogs were gonna bark larger, getting one bigger one led to a slight winning day because of the early Challenger loss. Onward.
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**Sport_Fish** · 02-15-12, 11:09 PM

What do u think of Raonic? He should run over Kamke. Price is too high so thinking of parlaying him with Berdych or Gasquet.

**EaglesPhan36** · 02-15-12, 11:21 PM

Wouldn't touch him first-up here after that knee issue that saw him sit out Davis Cup on Sunday. He's probably fine, but given the price, much safer to just let him play and see for sure that he's fit.

**Sport_Fish** · 02-15-12, 11:31 PM

Yeah good point...thx.

**EaglesPhan36** · 02-16-12, 12:19 AM

Thursday, February 16th

Parlay: Soeda (Bergamo) + Ramos (Sao Paulo) [+102]
Soeda started well in Bergamo with a nice win over Copil who had been very tough on the indoor surface in the last week or so. It was a nice bounce back from his loss in Davis Cup play. He's up against an inexperienced player and while the surface is not the best for Soeda, he's proven useful on it and this is the sort of match that he should win given his solid start to the season and ascension in the rankings. Ramos impressed me by dressing down Giraldo in his first match @ Sao Paulo. I thought he might struggle, but instead he was solid and looked comfortable. This is his surface of choice and going up against Andreev, he should rate a good shot to advance. Andreev has run through qualis here and beat Fernando Gonzalez. It's tough to gauge where he is at on those performances, so Ramos will provide the best test. Ramos won against him last year in three on clay. If he's consistent, I like him to survive this test as well.

WTA Doha: Pervak +220
Pervak gets Wickmayer. Pervak has been solid through two rounds as her game seems to be rounding into the form that saw her become somewhat of a threat on this surface last Summer. Wickmayer outlasted Schiavone yesterday and has been in good form when healthy. She has played quite a bit of tennis over the last two weeks though with Fed Cup, a long run in Paris and now the travel here to Doha. The young Russian provides a different twist with her lefty game, so Wickmayer has to adjust from Schiavone's funky slices to something different. Pervak has shown some ability as an all-surface player since Wimbledon of last year. Pervak looks more confident than she did to start the season and given the upset-laiden nature of this tournament, why not give her a whirl here.

**plc44** · 02-16-12, 01:15 AM

**RosieTheGreat** · 02-16-12, 01:26 AM

yeah i threwdown on pervak at +230 too.

**crblahblah** · 02-16-12, 04:50 AM

Hey EP, any opinion on Kohlschreiber vs Seppi match. Seppi struggled against de Voest and Kohl has been playing pretty well on indoor hard courts this year. It starts in about 15 minutes so if you're not around it's cool.

**EaglesPhan36** · 02-16-12, 05:37 AM

I looked at that one, it was tough to call as both struggled in their 1st round. Kohlschreiber really was lucky to survive. I think he was down a break late in the 3rd, but was able to fight back. I probably would have taken a shot with Seppi, but did not feel real confident in that.

Got Pervak @ +235 and the Parlay odds rose, so booked at +115 now because both prices floated some.

**crblahblah** · 02-16-12, 06:01 AM

Thanks for your thoughts. I didn't follow the 1st round match of Kohl and ended up deciding to stay away all together this one. He was up a break then lost 5 straights games to lose the set. It could still go either way but glad I didn't make a play.

**EaglesPhan36** · 02-16-12, 06:11 AM

Yeah Kohly folding up like a cheap suit. Another one of those guys who can be in a great groove for weeks and then lays an egg when people back him at higher chalk.

**MrGambler** · 02-16-12, 06:26 AM

Originally posted by EaglesPhan36

Yeah Kohly folding up like a cheap suit. Another one of those guys who can be in a great groove for weeks and then lays an egg when people back him at higher chalk.

Oh My God. Lost in 2 sets..was he injured?

**EaglesPhan36** · 02-16-12, 06:41 AM

Doubt it. He's just a streaky flake. Soeda playing like shit so far. Eeesh.

**MrGambler** · 02-16-12, 06:55 AM

Originally posted by EaglesPhan36

Doubt it. He's just a streaky flake. Soeda playing like shit so far. Eeesh.

Soeda is not trustful at all. He is on my no-play list. The guy he is playing today is ranked 223 for fck sake! Terrible 1 set.

**EaglesPhan36** · 02-16-12, 07:25 AM

He's played strong to start this year. Not his best surface though, but he shouldn't lose to a player like this. Starting in a hole again, wee!

**crblahblah** · 02-16-12, 07:44 AM

A couple of more questions if you don't mind, I don't really trust Troicki, any reason to start this match? And I really want to take Monica Niculescu -2 against Bondarenko, any lean? I think Monica taking out Vera is much more impressive than Bond over Penn but I really haven't seen much of Bond and don't know if Vera was legit injured or just giving up being down in a smaller tourney. You have really insightful opinions, win or lose, so I really appreciate hearing your thoughts.

**rumple** · 02-16-12, 07:51 AM

Pervak already getting rolled.

**EaglesPhan36** · 02-16-12, 07:53 AM

Vera is legit injured. She hurt her hip last week and pulled out of a match in Pattaya, so I'd take the win yesterday with a grain of salt. The price to me in this one is a little fishy because Bondarenko hasn't real done much this season. Admittedly neither has Niculescu, but she seems better overall on this surface and I thought would be a heavier favorite.

**EaglesPhan36** · 02-16-12, 08:06 AM

Pervak's serve has been absolutely horrid. She's had plenty of chances to get into this match and get ahead as Wickmayer isn't sharp either, but she can't hold her damn serve for shit.

**EaglesPhan36** · 02-16-12, 08:20 AM

Seven service breaks between the two. If Pervak holds once, I might fall over.

**crblahblah** · 02-16-12, 08:21 AM

I feel the same about the Niculescu line. The low line is putting me off. Lepchenko with a late break and chance to take first set. She was around +1100 before the match. I thought about taking the over 17.5 but wussed out since Radwa has been steamrolling people (though they were mostly way below her level).

**EaglesPhan36** · 02-16-12, 08:25 AM

Was thinking about this one anyway and now the market is fluxing like a mofo. 50 cent drop in price & Volandri is a well-known scumbag. Not advising a fix or anything, but I'm following the line move on this one - which is probably stupid to begin with.

ATP Sao Paulo: Ramirez-Hidalgo +100

**EaglesPhan36** · 02-16-12, 08:39 AM

Seen some pathetic serving displays in WTA, but this one by Pervak today might take the cake. One hold in the entire match.

**MrGambler** · 02-16-12, 08:43 AM

Originally posted by EaglesPhan36

Seen some pathetic serving displays in WTA, but this one by Pervak today might take the cake. One hold in the entire match.

Thats why its impossible to bet on WTA pre-match....and even live

.....roller cost....glad I didn't bet anything today...I would have lost money on Kohlschreiber and Lepchenko for sure....

**EaglesPhan36** · 02-16-12, 08:51 AM

Well I'd rather lose on a dog than chalk at least, costs less and there was no sweat to that one after the 1st set. She never had a chance playing like that. Would have been better fading McHale at her price, but I cannot back Peer 9/10 because her game to me is so damn weak.

**MrGambler** · 02-16-12, 08:55 AM

Originally posted by EaglesPhan36

Well I'd rather lose on a dog than chalk at least, costs less and there was no sweat to that one after the 1st set. She never had a chance playing like that. Would have been better fading McHale at her price, but I cannot back Peer 9/10 because her game to me is so damn weak.

Agree. Peer is a player that can lose to +50 ranked player any day with a strong backhand/forehand.

Wouldn't be too surprised if McHale turns this match around and win...

Looking at the odds - Pirinkova @4.50 vs Bartoli seems little too high to me. She won against Kerber...Kerber that actually won against Bartoli. Kerber might have been tired but Pirinkova have beaten Bartoli before and she can do it again. Might play small on Pirinkova to surprise.

What u think EP?

**Yezzir** · 02-16-12, 09:01 AM

Starace big underdog against Berlocq, he's 8-0 against Berlocq! I know Berlocq is a better player atm, but 8-0 is a lot.

**EaglesPhan36** · 02-16-12, 09:16 AM

That Starace number is odd to see, but I think Berlocq is a totally different player confidence wise now vs. the last time they met which was way back in August 2010. Starace can get hot on clay, but Berlocq is already in great form.

That was a nice win for Pironkova, but I think it probably had more to do with Kerber wearing down after a long week last week. You could guess the same with Bartoli, but she cruised so easily in her opener that I don't think fatigue is a major problem for her ... if everything is right with Bartoli, she whips Pironkova nine times out of ten on this surface IMO. Pironkova just doesn't match up well with the better players on this surface historically.

**MrGambler** · 02-16-12, 09:16 AM

LOL and of course McHale going for the win and didn't bet

**onacloud** · 02-16-12, 10:28 AM

I parlayed Ramos and Hidalgo

Hoping Hidalgo pulls thru on this 3rd set after that 6-1

**onacloud** · 02-16-12, 11:04 AM

Originally posted by onacloud

I parlayed Ramos and Hidalgo

Hoping Hidalgo pulls thru on this 3rd set after that 6-1

Down 4-2 not looking good

**EaglesPhan36** · 02-16-12, 11:08 AM

Well a beautiful 0-fer today.

**EaglesPhan36** · 02-16-12, 11:28 AM

ATP Sao Paulo: Nalbandian -140
This was the one that stuck out for me the most today and well, we'll see if it's a spectacular failure as well. Nalbandian surprisingly has not played on clay much over the past two years due to injury, etc. In his prime, he was great on this surface and can still get it done now. I like him having a match already played in Sao Paulo, a win yesterday in straights + the Davis Cup clay courter over Mayer. Simon meanwhile is transitioning to clay after last playing on an indoor hard court. Simon isn't terrible on clay, but his track record outside of his surprising win in Hamburg shows that he's not normally going to beat the better players on this surface. Whether Nalbandian is better might be debatable, but I think on this surface right now he is the better of the two. Simon's body of work in 2012 isn't much IMO with wins over guys he should beat and losses to guys who should beat him. That Nalbandian didn't overextend himself yesterday is a plus.

**tevari** · 02-16-12, 12:12 PM

Originally posted by EaglesPhan36

Simon's body of work in 2012 isn't much IMO with wins over guys he should beat and losses to guys who should beat him.

This. I'll take Nalbandian as well.

**showmdamoney** · 02-16-12, 01:35 PM

Getting on the Nalbandian wagon myself, won yesterday lets hope he does it again. Good luck and thanks for the posts gentlemen.