Shari's tennis plays

[shari91]

The King has to get some sleep... You're good Shari... But not this good...

haha my women's plays are already up in my spreadsheet

Cetkovska +100

Zvonareva/Schiavone/Vinci +106

Erakovic +142 0.5x

Parmentier +110

Martic +172

And I've just started to look at the men awhile ago

Kunitsyn +6.5 +100

[BigDan]

haha my women's plays are already up in my spreadsheet

Cetkovska +100

Zvonareva/Schiavone/Vinci +106

Erakovic +142 0.5x

Parmentier +110

Martic +172

And I've just started to look at the men awhile ago

Kunitsyn +6.5 +100

thank you Shari,

i tried to send points to the ipad fund but couldnt send them.

Do you by any chance have any solid mid-range favs i can parlay with the red sox?

[brettels]

For the first time I am backing Chela to win with confidence. He has never won when i have backed him. So, if he loses i am apologising in advance.

[shari91]

thank you Shari, i tried to send points to the ipad fund but couldnt send them. Do you by any chance have any solid mid-range favs i can parlay with the red sox?

I'm just finishing up with the men now and I'll go back and see what I can find. I bet based on numbers - that's why I have so many dogs. Some of these prices are just screwy compared to the % chance I give the player to win the match. I'll post back in here if I find something that looks really good.

For the first time I am backing Chela to win with confidence. He has never won when i have backed him. So, if he loses i am apologising in advance.

The only thing holding me back from taking him is his record on grass. But I think you'll get your win here

[BigDan]

yea i understand. i like your parlay. gonna put a little each on all the dogs. I got a few dif men i put with Sox. gotta get some sleep before work. thnx for you time

[Wulfman14]

haha my women's plays are already up in my spreadsheet

Cetkovska +100

Zvonareva/Schiavone/Vinci +106

Erakovic +142 0.5x

Parmentier +110

Martic +172

And I've just started to look at the men awhile ago

Kunitsyn +6.5 +100

gl shari. i tailed you on martic

[sharlataans]

Wow. PPL are buying out Cetkovska at Betfair.

[Mirar Baseball]

(9 minutes ago) 11:20: Morning all Do you want the good news or the bad news? Well, the good: it’s not raining yet. The bad: there’s definitely rain in the air and we should have a few showers today. It’s another fascinating day in prospect, kicking off at 12 on the outside courts again (hopefully). Big matches later in the day are Date Krumm v Venus, Nadal v Sweeting, Hanescu v Roddick on Centre and Benneteau v Berdych, Murray v Kamke and Kvitova v Keothavong on 1. Fingers crossed we’ll get them all in.

[Ruff]

Gluck Shari hope you kill em today

[brettels]

Weatherzone says raining in london

[shari91]

Wow. PPL are buying out Cetkovska at Betfair.

It never makes me feel good to see a player I've backed drop in price right before the match is due to start.

[Roxxyfish]

I was totally buried yesterday 3 plays 3 losses - 3K
can only get better today
I start with a parlay Goerges/Larsson

good luck with your plays Shari

[Mirar Baseball]

is 1.8 to 2.5 a drop or a rise in price?

i could never figure this out

[changkaikk]

Lets have a big day today!

[Tsonga]

nice they have a covered main court...at least some matches will get played.

[eddie0vedder]

I'm just finishing up with the men now and I'll go back and see what I can find. I bet based on numbers - that's why I have so many dogs. Some of these prices are just screwy compared to the % chance I give the player to win the match. I'll post back in here if I find something that looks really good. The only thing holding me back from taking him is his record on grass. But I think you'll get your win here

im on chela too, as he came good for me the other day and looks good, but heavy late movement against him

[eddie0vedder]

they need to cover more courts, even if its cheap crap, gotta love england, constant rain delays in the summer

[beefcake]

Shari, I think I bet the krumm bet after it was 15-0 1st game...Do as you will..

Beefy--

[shari91]

I was totally buried yesterday 3 plays 3 losses - 3K can only get better today I start with a parlay Goerges/Larsson good luck with your plays Shari

Best of luck Roxxy!! You're a brave man putting that much on these players in the first round. Hopefully you make it all back today and go on a big winning streak now

is 1.8 to 2.5 a drop or a rise in price? i could never figure this out

That's a rise in price. When you see me post about odds dropping on my player and my not liking it, that's because usually during the Slams it's the public jumping on a play. Line movement doesn't pan out in tennis as it does in other sports - in fact, beating the closing number will kill you more than 50% of the time in both the women and men over the past 5+ years.

Lets have a big day today!

Hopefully the weather starts to be nice to us. If not, all of my work's gone out the window and it just turns into who can handle the stops and starts better.

nice they have a covered main court...at least some matches will get played.

Yeah, we'll see a few definitely. But unfortunately most of mine are scheduled for outside courts.

im on chela too, as he came good for me the other day and looks good, but heavy late movement against him

Don't worry about the line movement. It's not big enough to signal anything dodgy and at some books, it doesn't take much money to move lines at all because of lower limits on tennis MLs. Worry a bit about his dodgy grass record if anything. But he's experienced and hopefully can outmuscle Bog to get you your win.

[Tommy_de1st]

Dull weather indeed. I'm 25-30 miles from Wimbledon and it's raining

[shari91]

Shari, I think I bet the krumm bet after it was 15-0 1st game...Do as you will..

Beefy--

It's all good. I had to manually change all of the times because the lines fed through as a 5am start for every match. I used livescorehunter for that one and they're showing 2pm when it was obviously a 1pm start. You basically bet it right at the official start time from the looks of your ticket so it's not a problem.

[brettels]

Dull weather indeed. I'm 25-30 miles from Wimbledon and it's raining

How long will it go on for? I would like my bet to settle before Friday!

[hutennis]

Line movement doesn't pan out in tennis as it does in other sports - in fact, beating the closing number will kill you more than 50% of the time in both the women and men over the past 5+ years.

That's interesting. Would you please elaborate on this.

[shari91]

That's interesting. Would you please elaborate on this.

I'm not going to elaborate much as it took a group of us a hell of a long time to track and back grab odds histories. I stopped doing it in March of this year after we had 5 1/2 years worth but my friends are still going on with it. But basically if you were to bet each ATP and WTA match (no challengers as we didn't track those) solely to beat the closing number, you would lose something like 54% of the time. Another poster on here has tracked the men as well and came up with close to the same number although I'd put more faith in the accuracy of his % as we had to backtrack 2yrs so I assume doing it in real time would probably leave less room for error.

This is why a few of us are always preaching to ignore line movement in tennis. It is just not profitable to use as the sole method to determine one's betting choices.

[yoshiments]

I'm not going to elaborate much as it took a group of us a hell of a long time to track and back grab odds histories. I stopped doing it in March of this year after we had 5 1/2 years worth but my friends are still going on with it. But basically if you were to bet each ATP and WTA match (no challengers as we didn't track those) solely to beat the closing number, you would lose something like 54% of the time. Another poster on here has tracked the men as well and came up with close to the same number although I'd put more faith in the accuracy of his % as we had to backtrack 2yrs so I assume doing it in real time would probably leave less room for error. This is why a few of us are always preaching to ignore line movement in tennis. It is just not profitable to use as the sole method to determine one's betting choices.

so much fail in this post.

[sharlataans]

They are opening the courts, finally!

[Mirar Baseball]

I'm not going to elaborate much as it took a group of us a hell of a long time to track and back grab odds histories. I stopped doing it in March of this year after we had 5 1/2 years worth but my friends are still going on with it. But basically if you were to bet each ATP and WTA match (no challengers as we didn't track those) solely to beat the closing number, you would lose something like 54% of the time. Another poster on here has tracked the men as well and came up with close to the same number although I'd put more faith in the accuracy of his % as we had to backtrack 2yrs so I assume doing it in real time would probably leave less room for error.

This is why a few of us are always preaching to ignore line movement in tennis. It is just not profitable to use as the sole method to determine one's betting choices.

Unless I'm misinterpreting, you are saying that if I bet BETTER ODDS (the opposite of the so called 'sharp' picks who bet solely to beat the closer), I would win 54%??? Did you guys research every match, or only more-or-less-even matchups, with no dogs higher than +300?

[jayc88]

rain has stopped

[shari91]

so much fail in this post.

sorry yoshi, numbers don't lie

They are opening the courts, finally!

Unless I'm misinterpreting, you are saying that if I bet BETTER ODDS (the opposite of the so called 'sharp' picks who bet solely to beat the closer), I would win 54%??? Did you guys research every match, or only more-or-less-even matchups, with no dogs higher than +300?

This is what I'm saying: I have the odds of every WTA and ATP match played since 2006. HeeHawwww (he goes by another name on TI where he's a mod) has Pinny's odds of every ATP match played since 2004. The conclusion is simple - in tennis, closing lines are no more or less accurate than opening lines. To be specific, the opener was more accurate by 4-6% but over that much data there's not much you can do with that to help you with your every day betting.

This is why people who have been betting tennis for any length of time say to just ignore line movement unless it truly signals something ie an injury, a player tanking a match or just a flat out fix. Beating the closer may pay off from time to time but if you were playing every match on the board, every day of the week, it wouldn't. Therefore there's no value in it as your sole method of betting as there is in other sports ie NBA and MLB.

[yoshiments]

How about on line movements of >25c/100. No way can opener be more accurate for those...checking every single one is rather irrelevant, especially when higher lines would dominate those statistics i.e if a line moved from -6000 on nadal to -5500 that is quantified as a huge line movement in your study.

[gregm]

Great posts Shari. You guys really put some work in on running those numbers. I will scan oddsportal now and then but you guys really put in some time on that. I actually used to read these guys who were chasing steam in tennis and constantly bragging how they were winning, all of a sudden they started losing and just disappeared.

Tennis is a completely different market than most major sports wagered on , but there is a legendary thread in handicappers tanks that is worth reading for people who like to talk about efficient markets and closing lines even in major sports markets. http://forum.sbrforum.com/handicappe...sing-line.html. everyone should read this , its a great thread.

Off topic, I read a fascinating book a while back from a guy in your part of the world, Bill Waterhouse. "What are the odds" a fascinating look into gambling and bookmaking in general. Great book

[hutennis]

I'm not going to elaborate much as it took a group of us a hell of a long time to track and back grab odds histories. I stopped doing it in March of this year after we had 5 1/2 years worth but my friends are still going on with it. But basically if you were to bet each ATP and WTA match (no challengers as we didn't track those) solely to beat the closing number, you would lose something like 54% of the time. Another poster on here has tracked the men as well and came up with close to the same number although I'd put more faith in the accuracy of his % as we had to backtrack 2yrs so I assume doing it in real time would probably leave less room for error.

This is why a few of us are always preaching to ignore line movement in tennis. It is just not profitable to use as the sole method to determine one's betting choices.

What is a "closing number" in you research?

Losing 54% of the time betting on what?

[shari91]

How about on line movements of >25c/100. No way can opener be more accurate for those...checking every single one is rather irrelevant, especially when higher lines would dominate those statistics i.e if a line moved from -6000 on nadal to -5500 that is quantified as a huge line movement in your study.

You're interpreting what I'm saying the wrong way. Could be my fault for not explaining it properly as it's getting late here and I'm trying to do 50 things at once.

I'm not talking about line movement on players who go on to win ie Nadal. I'm talking about favourable line movement on players who go on to lose.

Give me a few minutes and I'll try to come up with every player this week where there's been line movement in the player's favour yet the player has still lost.

[eddie0vedder]

I'm with Pinny so line movement is significant but I know little about tennis betting so I trust your judgement Shari

[shari91]

I'm grabbing these from TI because as I said, I stopped tracking these myself in March. I believe they use Pinny's odds but I'd have to double check that.

These are all players who lost in the first round and this was the price drops on them from the opener. I've ignored anything less than a 20 cent drop.

Alison Riske: $1.77 price drop

Pous-Tio $0.22

Giorgi $0.37

Amanmuradova $4.80

Craybas $0.46

Broady $0.43

Glatch $1.74

Rybarikova $2.22 retired so one set/one ball bettors would've been screwed

Diatchenko $0.42

Kanepi $0.27

Dolonts $0.92

Falconi $0.27

Rezai $0.76

Pliskova $0.61

Vandeweghe $0.35

Kudryatseva $0.75

Parra Santonja $5.56

Falla $1.38

Evans $0.76

Sjisling $0.31

Bemelmans $0.92


More than 20 cent price drop in their favour and they won:

Tatishvili $0.20

Parmentier $0.20

Safarova $0.25

Hewitt $0.69

Harrison $0.52

Karlovic $0.93, Tipsy retired but one set bettors would've still won

Istomin $0.54

And then you've got people like Czink, Pervak, Martinez Sanchez, Zemlja, Mello, Bogomolov and McHale where the line moved more than 20 cents against them and they still won.

Obviously a small sample but if someone were to solely have started to chase line movement in the first round of Wimbledon, they would've lost considerably more money than they won. So that's the point I'm trying to make - unless you believe there's an injury, etc that could be affecting the line, following line movement in tennis is futile and would actually cost you money over the long run if you bet every match available.