Shari's tennis plays

[shari91]

Any evening games Shari91 that you like at the moment?

Well, I like Peng, Jovanovski, Lu and Groth. But I'm taking a punt with them all - that's why I didn't post. Even though Peng and Groth are favourites I'm still a bit worried about them both so I'm still just flat betting for small. I don't want to piss away all of my earlier winnings.

[Bbr]

Well, I like Peng, Jovanovski, Lu and Groth. But I'm taking a punt with them all - that's why I didn't post. Even though Peng and Groth are favourites I'm still a bit worried about them both so I'm still just flat betting for small. I don't want to piss away all of my earlier winnings.

Groth and peng in a parlay looks half decent??

[shari91]

Groth and peng in a parlay looks half decent??

Yeah, but I'm too chicken to be honest. I'm pretty sure one of the two will hit, probably both. And I've been burned so many times with parlays that I save them for when I'm feeling really strongly. These are more like 70% for me.

[EaglesPhan36]

Any Tomic interest tonight lady? I'm waiting for Azarenka to finish Peer off so that one can start.

[labrador]

Yeah, but I'm too chicken to be honest. I'm pretty sure one of the two will hit, probably both. And I've been burned so many times with parlays that I save them for when I'm feeling really strongly. These are more like 70% for me.

I’m worried about Peng’s stamina quite a bit. She’s been playing too many 3 sets lately.

[shari91]

Any Tomic interest tonight lady? I'm waiting for Azarenka to finish Peer off so that one can start.

I'm not sure to be honest. I can't back Tomic because I really want him to lose and I think Dolgo was pretty decent against Roddick, hitting some nice shots. If you're on Tomic though I'll cheer for you!

I’m worried about Peng’s stamina quite a bit. She’s been playing too many 3 sets lately.

A bit worrying but these are pro athletes so I'm hoping she'll pull up nicely for this one. Fingers crossed at least!

Right now I'm pissed Kuzy just broke Stosur twice in the 2nd. I told someone in here to put a bit on her and I forgot to.

[Bbr]

cash pennetta. Kuznetsova lookin gd. She was my biggest play today along with Lu. Hope her first serves hit at a greater percentile again in the 3rd!

[brettels]

is tennis insight worth the money? do they show under player profiles what there court surface is etc?

[shari91]

is tennis insight worth the money? do they show under player profiles what there court surface is etc?

Yes. Definitely worth the money. I think it's only like $6 for a two week trial. They show everything. More stats than you'll possibly use.

[Pew Pew]

Simon is murdering Lu.

Anyone got info on Haase vs Cuevas?

It's the only match of my 9 team parlay I'm worried about. When I did the parlay Haase was -200, and now he's +110...?

Nevermind already discussed.

[brettels]

Yes. Definitely worth the money. I think it's only like $6 for a two week trial. They show everything. More stats than you'll possibly use.

giving it a two week trial, not understanding there way they score the match, handle, surface ratings in the match previews. also what the probability of TB is about?

[shari91]

giving it a two week trial, not understanding there way they score the match, handle, surface ratings in the match previews. also what the probability of TB is about?

You should be able to click on the name and it'll take you to a page where they explain what each rating means.

[Cheetahponti]

Shari - I've just signed up to Tennis Insight, any tips on how to use it most effectively in capping games?

[shari91]

Shari - I've just signed up to Tennis Insight, any tips on how to use it most effectively in capping games?

There's so much info there that you're probably better off finding the way that's most effective for you. I would suggest ignoring anyone's tips there that don't post info to go along with it, including mine. There's basically a mini tipping competition running for free memberships each quarter and some people just pick big dogs or whatever to try to get their $ won up. Read what individual tippers have to say - a lot of good info in there. Pay close attention to the surfaces when looking at H2H and how long ago they are, and read the recaps of those matches. Sometimes players were injured, tanking, fixed, coming back off injury, etc... and obviously straight scorelines don't represent that.

[EaglesPhan36]

I'm not sure to be honest. I can't back Tomic because I really want him to lose and I think Dolgo was pretty decent against Roddick, hitting some nice shots. If you're on Tomic though I'll cheer for you! A bit worrying but these are pro athletes so I'm hoping she'll pull up nicely for this one. Fingers crossed at least! Right now I'm pissed Kuzy just broke Stosur twice in the 2nd. I told someone in here to put a bit on her and I forgot to.

Thinking I hope the rain lasts and Tomic gets to sleep on his 2nd set because he seemed asleep during it. Went from lights out serving to absolute dog shit. Guess this is what I get for betting on a Dolgopolov involved match. Insane momentum swings.

[shari91]

Thinking I hope the rain lasts and Tomic gets to sleep on his 2nd set because he seemed asleep during it. Went from lights out serving to absolute dog shit. Guess this is what I get for betting on a Dolgopolov involved match. Insane momentum swings.

The weather is going to be shit here the whole week. One of my tennis buddies was saying that if it keeps it up, there's no way they can play the Aus Open in this. So frustrating to have so much money tied up on these suckers but I need Lu to have a bit of a revival too so here's hoping the rest does him and Tomic some good.

[erkanua]

Hey Shari! I know it isn't relevant here but I have a question about Tennisinsight..Do you know what are these aces for? I read it but I understood nothing

[brettels]

Hey Shari! I know it isn't relevant here but I have a question about Tennisinsight..Do you know what are these aces for? I read it but I understood nothing

x2, i understood nothing on the question i asked previously in this thread, i read the tennis insight explanation but i felt retarted not understanding it.

[shari91]

Hey Shari! I know it isn't relevant here but I have a question about Tennisinsight..Do you know what are these aces for? I read it but I understood nothing

They're kind of like points here to a certain extent. They're a way to acknowledge a particularly good post/insight by someone. I think if you earn a certain amount of aces from other players they give you free membership for a certain period of time which is pretty cool. Some people do challenges with them too. Which are the same as betting points here with another poster. Say you liked Woz and I liked Kuz, we could've challenged each other for a certain number of aces. To be honest I don't really get involved in most of that. I just jump on there, do my little research and usually jump off although sometimes I'll tip if I remember.

x2, i understood nothing on the question i asked previously in this thread, i read the tennis insight explanation but i felt retarted not understanding it.

Tell me which ones specifically you do not understand and I'll try to help you out.

[brettels]

Tell me which ones specifically you do not understand and I'll try to help you out.

in the match previews

match rating of 1.74 , i dont get it if 1.74 is good or bad or what
handle rating of 0.76 , same thing just dont get it
surface rating, i just don't get how these ratings on the players work, at all, even after reading the TI explanation.

i am guessing probability of TB is chance of tie breaker.

[erkanua]

I agree with you, TI must be just for research and to see the odds movements. So, the aces are for nothing

[brettels]

also check out the rankings for clay courts, nadal isn't listed anywhere in that top 20. have a feeling lots of false information and very slow updates go into TI

[erkanua]

Although I didn't read anything about surface rating thing I guess it is related with odds. I mean Nadal is always huge favorite in clay courts whereas these players who are in Top 20 now may be more profitable guys in clay courts than Nadal. By the way, I suggest you to not interest with that surface rating, if I just want to learn something about surface I just click the stats button and see the numbers of that player in that surface...

[shari91]

in the match previews match rating of 1.74 , i dont get it if 1.74 is good or bad or what handle rating of 0.76 , same thing just dont get it surface rating, i just don't get how these ratings on the players work, at all, even after reading the TI explanation. i am guessing probability of TB is chance of tie breaker.

Well with match ratings the highest I've seen is like 5 something ie Fed on hard, Nadal on clay, Clijsters most of the time, etc... Really you use them in comparison to their opponent for that match only as they'll change every day. Match ratings are telling you what the stats are saying about how that person is expected to play in that particular match in that particular tournament when everything is taken into account. It doesn't matter if it's high or low in comparison to other players playing on that day - it only matters as to what the number is compared to their opponent. There are even times where you'll see two players with - numbers because neither player has a great record on the surface and their form is dodgy. But again, it only matters how they compare to each other. Obviously when they're both negative, the one closer to 0 is the higher rated player for that match. I don't solely rely on TI for my betting as I have a few other things on the go but when one player is rated much higher than the other, it's a pretty good indicator that there's a big discrepancy in class between the two players THAT DAY. Alternatively, if the ratings are quite close, TI's analysis is indicating a tight match and sometimes that's when handicaps or taking the dog outright is useful.

Handle: Anything less than 0.5 is saying that TI can't get enough grip on the player to make a decent call on their form or chances in that match. That could be because the player has been on a long break, hasn't played the surface very often, or has never faced their opponent. Each of those factors reduce the Handle, or 'confidence', that TI is placing in it's analysis. It's pretty difficult to guess how a player is going to perform when they're a Del Potro coming off a long injury break so when they take all of those factors into account, they post the handle to let you know that yeah, they've done the analysis but you may need to take some of it with a grain of salt and be leery of how much you wager. At least that's how I use the handle.

Surface: Well, that's how they've performed on that surface over time. What is their record on that specific surface? Did they play clay court specialists or fellow players just trying to win a match or two and make some cash on clay? Tennis players tend to prefer certain surfaces over another. Clay is a perfect example. You have journeymen who make their yearly cash solely playing clay but they still show up at hard court tournaments because well, why not give it a shot and maybe make some cash there too? It's important to know how a player performs on that surface and if they've ever notched up some wins on it, or if they did, if they were playing a fellow shithouse player on that surface. That's why it's so dangerous when people make bets solely on 'name' alone. Just because the player won a lot of matches in the past few months, that definitely doesn't mean that success will carry over when the surface season changes again. That's where the surface rating helps you to quickly know who specialises in that surface and who doesn't.

TB Chance - That's pretty much what you said it is. The possibility of a tiebreak. 20% or over is pretty high from what I've seen. I interpret that info to suggest that a play on a dog handicap or an over the total bet may be the play.

Hope this helps a bit.

I agree with you, TI must be just for research and to see the odds movements. So, the aces are for nothing

Well, I guess if you were concerned with trying to get a free membership from them then the aces would mean something but really for me, the amount of a yearly membership is so minimal compared to what I earn from using some of their info that I just can't be assed getting fully involved in it all. It is a great idea though. Basically the equivalent to using points here to buy something from the store.

[shari91]

also check out the rankings for clay courts, nadal isn't listed anywhere in that top 20. have a feeling lots of false information and very slow updates go into TI

See how it says "minimum 0.15 handle". That's because Nadal doesn't play every clay court tournament and is currently sick on top of it. Read the info in italics at the bottom of the chart. It's all easily explained there.

[shari91]

Although I didn't read anything about surface rating thing I guess it is related with odds. I mean Nadal is always huge favorite in clay courts whereas these players who are in Top 20 now may be more profitable guys in clay courts than Nadal. By the way, I suggest you to not interest with that surface rating, if I just want to learn something about surface I just click the stats button and see the numbers of that player in that surface...

Surface rating is good when you're first jumping into a season and you may be dealing with players you're not too familiar with. Some of these clay court guys could walk up to you and introduce themselves and you wouldn't have a clue who they are because they pop up so rarely throughout the year and aren't the 'name' players. That's when it helps you to determine if someone is a specialist on the surface or if they're just trying to take a shot to make a few bucks. Especially at the beginning of tournaments when there are so many matches on and people crawling out of the woodwork in the qualies or 1st round.

[erkanua]

Well, I guess if you were concerned with trying to get a free membership from them then the aces would mean something but really for me, the amount of a yearly membership is so minimal compared to what I earn from using some of their info that I just can't be assed getting fully involved in it all. It is a great idea though. Basically the equivalent to using points here to buy something from the store.

So, how many aces do you need to renew your membership? I can't find anything about that. On the other hand, can you renew your membership if you have enough aces or just mods are able to renew it?

[brettels]

thanks heeeeps shari!

[shari91]

So, how many aces do you need to renew your membership? I can't find anything about that. On the other hand, can you renew your membership if you have enough aces or just mods are able to renew it?

I think you need to be one of those ace leaders that you'll see on the left hand side when the TI 'season' ends. I think they restart the season every 3 months or so. Basically if you contribute high quality insight people will give you aces. Same as giving someone points here for a great post or tip. So it's pretty much the top 3 or 5 during that TI time period will earn a free membership. I think it's explained in more detail on there somewhere.

thanks heeeeps shari!

No problem. Hope it helped a bit.

[erkanua]

Thank you..I understood but I still think it is pointless because the amount for membership is not an huge money

[shari91]

Thank you..I understood but I still think it is pointless because the amount for membership is not an huge money

I totally agree but if we were being super smart pro bettors I guess we'd be doing everything we could to maximize our value there. I however am neither super smart or a pro so I just may my cash and hope to make it back in the next bet.

[shari91]

iPhone fail. Double post.

[Ace_of_Spades]

Shari, please tell me you are ok and not floating down the river sitting on top of your car?

[brettels]

shari, another TI question. is the predicted hold the obvious and about how well the player holds serve?

[shari91]

Shari, please tell me you are ok and not floating down the river sitting on top of your car?

I'm ok although we're getting hit by some rain here in Melb and it's going to keep coming which may screw up the Aus Open although that feels a bit shallow saying that. Nothing like what the people in Queensland are going through. I have so many friends stuck there and it's seriously devastating. People writing from their roofs with their babies, other people missing family members. I was posting some of their Facebook posts in Chat and I can't believe it. Unreal what something like the weather - which is usually just a mundane conversation starter - can do. Eight confirmed dead so far and almost 80 officially missing.

shari, another TI question. is the predicted hold the obvious and about how well the player holds serve?

Based on how many times they serve without breakpoints and how many breakpoints they save.