EP36's Tennis Talk

**beefcake** · 07-21-10, 03:01 PM

Have no fear Ep,I think the price on fish is right where we want it now,everyone is looking at the 3-1 H2h ..they were 2 years ago before The US gov said"We can rebuild him!" new knee ,new body,even money on the handicap at 5 dimes at -3 or parlayed below
I dont see isner losing to Mueller,could see him being a little rusty early and mueller 1st set has some value at +225..for shits..

Mardy/Big John 2 teamer pays +109..

**beefcake** · 07-21-10, 03:26 PM

This is isners first match in weeks,might be feeling a little nervous in front of the locals from UGA,mueller is no stiff on the ATP having an above .500 record and also a decent 46-37 record in tiebreaks ,all the more reason to think him winning the first set has value.

**EaglesPhan36** · 07-21-10, 03:58 PM

I think Isner will pound him personally. Muller used to be good. Every once in awhile Isner has those sets where he can't serve for shit, but I don't expect it here. 1st set bets are tough to gauge, I think there are spots they might serve well ... taking the dog against title winners from previous weeks who are playing their 1st match in the next tournament would be one I think would be better than 50-50. Montanes, Almagro being examples of this.

**CindyCryBaby** · 07-21-10, 04:02 PM

But is it worth it to sacrifice the x% of value by betting 1st set only over the whole match? Even in this situation don't think that the underdog wins the first set AND loses the match more often than the value you are losing by not betting full match.

**Goat Milk** · 07-21-10, 04:23 PM

told you guys about Belluci he's been doing nothing for the past month. glad we both cashed on the over i needed that.

ep check your pm i am about to pm you

**Robber** · 07-21-10, 04:25 PM

6-1 2-6 schuettler
6-4 2-5 zeb

both have split sets

**EaglesPhan36** · 07-21-10, 04:53 PM

Originally posted by beefcake

Mardy/Big John 2 teamer pays +109..

**EaglesPhan36** · 07-21-10, 06:34 PM

Nice hit on Muller 1st set if you went with it. Isner is in his serve and get to a tie break mode it appears. Think that's the only way he turns this match in the 2nd. Hopefully he gets it.

**EaglesPhan36** · 07-21-10, 07:15 PM

Isner wins the tie break.

**beefcake** · 07-21-10, 07:27 PM

Match going pretty much as I figured.I did play the 1st set on him..Nice to get one of those!
Now need fish!!

**EaglesPhan36** · 07-21-10, 08:15 PM

Mr. Tie Break does it again.

**JNic** · 07-21-10, 08:23 PM

wow saves 2 match points, one in each tiebreak. such a mental giant in tiebreaks

**beefcake** · 07-21-10, 10:02 PM

Nice going Fish!!

**EaglesPhan36** · 07-21-10, 10:02 PM

Good call on that parlay, got me back past even on the day.

**rumple** · 07-21-10, 11:28 PM

Anyone looking at Garbin +130? I realize they are both pretty bad but at least Garbin is losing to good competition while Mayr is beating up on some Challenger scrubs. Seems like a toss up to me.

**EaglesPhan36** · 07-22-10, 12:22 AM

THURSDAY

PARLAY: FERRERO + SEPPI [-103]
Ferrero was solid in his opener, running away from Hajek after a testy 1st set. He draws Nieminen who outlasted Simon in 3 sets. It was an up and down match for both, but the Fin fits the mold of a good fade after winning a match in which he actually won less points than his opponent. JCF has a solid draw to get to the semis of this tournament and should be looking to take advantage here. Nieminen generally plays tough, but loses to solid dirt ballers like JCF. Expecting Ferrero to advance after a battle. Seppi draws Fognini who he has never lost to in four tries. That includes a pretty convincing 6-3, 6-0 win in April at a clay Challenger. Seppi has been solid in his two matches thus far, rarely threatened. Fognini has beaten a couple of non-threats on clay in Gicquel and Hidalgo. In the match against Gicquel, Fognini won less points than Gicquel despite winning 6-4, 6-4. For me, that is always a red light for that player going into their next match. Look for Seppi to prevail here if his serve can maintain its excellent rate from the first two rounds.

**EaglesPhan36** · 07-22-10, 12:36 AM

CHARDY-MELZER OVER 22 [-110]
Oh lawdy, I said I always end up on the wrong side of anything involving Chardy this season ... but I like this one, so fade accordingly. Chardy's serve has been excellent through two rounds, having not been broken once. Melzer was solid in his opener as well, but was low on his 1st serve percentage, under 50% against Schwank. Certainly as I've preached, Chardy can flip the switch from hit to shit within a matter of seconds, so there is nothing certain here. Still, the guy has all the talent in the world and if he brings the thunder on-serve, I can see this one having a legit shot.

**scyred** · 07-22-10, 12:40 AM

Originally posted by EaglesPhan36

THURSDAY

PARLAY: FERRERO + SEPPI [-103]
Ferrero was solid in his opener, running away from Hajek after a testy 1st set. He draws Nieminen who outlasted Simon in 3 sets. It was an up and down match for both, but the Fin fits the mold of a good fade after winning a match in which he actually won less points than his opponent. JCF has a solid draw to get to the semis of this tournament and should be looking to take advantage here. Nieminen generally plays tough, but loses to solid dirt ballers like JCF. Expecting Ferrero to advance after a battle. Seppi draws Fognini who he has never lost to in four tries. That includes a pretty convincing 6-3, 6-0 win in April at a clay Challenger. Seppi has been solid in his two matches thus far, rarely threatened. Fognini has beaten a couple of non-threats on clay in Gicquel and Hidalgo. In the match against Gicquel, Fognini won less points than Gicquel despite winning 6-4, 6-4. For me, that is always a red light for that player going into their next match. Look for Seppi to prevail here if his serve can maintain its excellent rate from the first two rounds.

tailing you on this. good luck!

**Adebayor365** · 07-22-10, 02:44 AM

Originally posted by EaglesPhan36

THURSDAY

PARLAY: FERRERO + SEPPI [-103]
Ferrero was solid in his opener, running away from Hajek after a testy 1st set. He draws Nieminen who outlasted Simon in 3 sets. It was an up and down match for both, but the Fin fits the mold of a good fade after winning a match in which he actually won less points than his opponent. JCF has a solid draw to get to the semis of this tournament and should be looking to take advantage here. Nieminen generally plays tough, but loses to solid dirt ballers like JCF. Expecting Ferrero to advance after a battle. Seppi draws Fognini who he has never lost to in four tries. That includes a pretty convincing 6-3, 6-0 win in April at a clay Challenger. Seppi has been solid in his two matches thus far, rarely threatened. Fognini has beaten a couple of non-threats on clay in Gicquel and Hidalgo. In the match against Gicquel, Fognini won less points than Gicquel despite winning 6-4, 6-4. For me, that is always a red light for that player going into their next match. Look for Seppi to prevail here if his serve can maintain its excellent rate from the first two rounds.

good luck

**EaglesPhan36** · 07-22-10, 07:29 AM

Parlay complete.

**EaglesPhan36** · 07-22-10, 11:00 AM

Here comes the Chardy F-job on the total. Keeps it on-serve in the 1st set to 5-5, gets broken and loses 7-5. Now losing his composure and sure to get broken off the bat by Melzer. Will be lucky if this pushes.

**Catherine** · 07-22-10, 11:11 AM

keep up the work

**EaglesPhan36** · 07-22-10, 11:46 AM

PARLAY: DAVYDENKO-MALISSE [-110]
Davydenko looked much better in his opener this week than he did in losing to Gimeno in Stuttgart last week. He admitted the turnaround from the indoor hard surface in Davis Cup play to dirt was difficult. Now with a week to prepare and a title to defend here, he looks as if he has refocused himself. He'll face a test in Golubev who has been sturdy in two wins. Still, clay is not his best surface so if Davydenko is consistent, he should see through here. Davydenko won their only career meeting on dirt last May. Malisse draws Marchenko in Atlanta. Neither has been particularly great on hard surfaces this year, but I think Malisse's serve is the superior weapon here. He will need to figure out his 1st serve though as Malisse got in a pathetic 36% on 1st serve in beating Sweeting in his opener. Look at the serve stats in this one and you'll know the winner. I think Malisse is just a little more consistent at this stage in that category, but he'll be tested.

**EaglesPhan36** · 07-22-10, 11:47 AM

Chardy came back and got back on serve. Total cashes!

**nicsbr** · 07-22-10, 12:57 PM

gl on the parlay

**EaglesPhan36** · 07-22-10, 02:42 PM

Looks like the donkey is out playing in Hamburg today. Davydenko going to lose this 1st set unless Golubev chokes on serve.

**Goat Milk** · 07-22-10, 02:45 PM

nice day. malisse to much risk for me at that price. i like his game but i took him against sweeting and his first serve was awful.

**jazzboy** · 07-22-10, 02:49 PM

Good luck to U

**EaglesPhan36** · 07-22-10, 02:56 PM

ANDERSON-YOUNG OVER 22.5 [-120]
These two have quite the history against each other in the last three years with five meetings and all four hard court meetings going 3 sets. The latest came on an indoor hard court in Memphis this Spring. Anderson won that one: 6-4, 6-7, 6-3. The intriguing thing that lends to a good shot to go over here is that each of the four hard court meetings has featured one tie breaker set. The inconsistincies in both Anderson and Young's games are what seem to lend these matches to stretching out. Anderson is the tall, lanky South African with the huge serve whereas Young is the small, quick player who relies a little more on his court coverage ability to win since his serve is mostly average. Still, Anderson isn't going to return much, so if Young can keep his 1st serves in, that should lend to him finding success as well.

**EaglesPhan36** · 07-22-10, 03:25 PM

Should have known better than to use Donkey-denko even in a parlay. What a dickhead.

**ha1ogen** · 07-22-10, 04:06 PM

nah golubev played some pretty nice tennis, i took the +5 on golubev

**EaglesPhan36** · 07-22-10, 04:11 PM

All Golubev had to do was hold his serve. Davydenko imploded on his own serve all match. He's just not fit enough from that wrist injury I don't think. In any case, serves me right for including a Russian in a play.

**EaglesPhan36** · 07-22-10, 06:46 PM

Donald Young FAIL, Gets broken when he could have taken set #1 to a tie break and then just folds up shop in the 2nd. Go back to Challengers underachiever.

**JW Cash** · 07-22-10, 06:56 PM

Originally posted by EaglesPhan36

Donald Young FAIL, Gets broken when he could have taken set #1 to a tie break and then just folds up shop in the 2nd. Go back to Challengers underachiever.

Not sure if I would call someone who pocketed a very nice check
today and will fly off to another glamorous part of the world as
an " underachiever "....

Guess its all relative.....just sayin....

**EaglesPhan36** · 07-22-10, 08:59 PM

Underachiever describes Donald perfectly at this point in his career. Just because you get paid for play doesn't mean you've lived up to your ranking and the "hype." Maybe the hype was too much because as Americans, we're always looking for the next guy with guys like Roddick and Blake getting older. Isner & Querrey seem to be the next generation, but Young was supposed to be a guy who was going to step up and be an ATP level performer. I realize he's just about to turn 21, but he's actually ranked about 25 spots lower than he was two years ago when he got his highest ranking of I think 75 or so. He's just kind of stuck without any momentum. He plays well enough on hard courts to make a paycheck on the Challenger level and maybe win a few of those here & there, but with where he's ranked, he's got to start doing work at the ATP level. Otherwise, he's going to be Kevin Kim and just collect a check playing Challengers for the rest of his life. Nothing wrong with that and it's better money than most of us will ever make, but I guess I'm just waiting for him to put it together at some point and he doesn't look like he's going to any time soon.