EP36's Tennis Talk

Yezzir · 08-13-10, 08:17 AM

Originally posted by onasius

http://twitter.com/zaf_zaf as I told you before without any guarantee....I'm searching myself for the official score and the Kunitsyn live score...as someone told before bet365 took it out...

Thanks pal. Hopefully Bet365 hurry up and find confirmation.

EP, any plays today, i'm already on Murray as a dog.

EaglesPhan36 · 08-13-10, 08:18 AM

NADAL-KOHLSCHREIBER OVER 20.5 [-105]
On hard courts, Kohlschreiber definitely has a chance to make this competitive. The German has done well enough to get to the QFs in Toronto this week with his best attribute to me being his nerve. He saved 11 break points against Lu yesterday, including a crucial double break point situation in the 2nd set where he likely would have lost the match if he got broke. He saved 5/7 breakers against Troicki. His serve has been solid and will need to be against Nadal. Rafa's serve has been good this week with only two break chances slipping away from the Spaniard. So far, Nadal seems to be cruising along, perhaps conserving energy for when he needs it most. That would suit me fine again in this match if he lets Kohlschreiber stay close and this over gets a chance to cash. Would not be surprised if Kohlschreiber serves extremely well that he grabs a set in this one too.

EaglesPhan36 · 08-13-10, 08:24 AM

That Nalbandian-Murray match is tough to call. It's hard to go against Nalbandian at this point. It's a huge confidence match for Murray IMO. He's on the cusp of making the 180 from his Federer ass whipping at the Australian Open if he can get hot here running to the US Open. Fatigue doesn't appear to be a huge issue with Nalbandian right now. Having that 56 minute match with Robredo helped. I think it's a toss-up. If Murray can frustrate Nalbandian by returning his serve well and running down his shots, then I think he can win - but no one has been able to do that for two weeks. Only thing I kind of lean to is that I think it might go 3 sets, but it's probably a no bet for me all-around.

Yezzir · 08-13-10, 08:26 AM

I just think Murray is the sort of player that may frustrate Big Dave at times, he's faced a lot of players that suit his style, and when he played against a worse version of Murray (Simon), he lost a set, I just can't pass up Murray as a dog to anyone who isn't Nadal or Federer.

PetrGasparik · 08-13-10, 08:32 AM

Question for tactic bet:

I have Toronto futures:
09/08/2010 11:58:33 Tomáš Berdych @ 17.00
09/08/2010 11:58:33 Rafael Nadal @ 3.50

is it now good time to back my bet with Federer @ 1.36 and/or Kohlschreiber @ 9.00?
How much?

PetrGasparik · 08-13-10, 08:38 AM

...looking for mannanino score

EaglesPhan36 · 08-13-10, 08:40 AM

I'm personally letting the Nadal future ride. As I said a little way up this page, I am looking to protect the Berdych future because of the injury concern. I think it would be better to take Federer on the futures line to win the tournament than to take him outright to win the match vs. Berdych. If he beats Berdych, then he takes over as your guy on that side of the bracket with either Djokovic or Chardy awaiting him.

beefcake · 08-13-10, 08:48 AM

great price on the under at +105 for the Wickmayer/Pavly match...Im going to take a stab..One will falter,dont know which,so Ill go with the under

EaglesPhan36 · 08-13-10, 08:54 AM

PAVLYUCHENKOVA +100
The Russian draws Wickmayer in what should be a competitive affair as suggested by the price. For me, Pavlyuchenkova is tough to go against right now. She won the Istanbul tournament on a hard surface at the end of July and has been impressive this week dispatching of her personal whipping girl Hantuchova, Dementieva and yesterday, Peer. The Peer match, she showed a good nerve in rallying from a set down. Both Wickmayer and Pavlyuchenkova have done a superb job getting their 1st serves in consistently this week, which is often uncommon in the WTA. Wickmayer though falls into that category for me where she actually advanced against Li despite winning fewer points [90-92]. That doesn't always indicate a sure fire loss in the next round, but it always looks troublesome to me. Better form of late for the Russian, so I side with her here.

PetrGasparik · 08-13-10, 08:55 AM

Ok, how much do you suggest for Federer future?

I have 3 equal bets (Nadal, Berdych, Soderling) with Nadal @ 3.25 - it doesn't gives too much room. Or I will be in little loss when Nadal wins tournament

TY in advance

fuglyboy86hi · 08-13-10, 08:55 AM

taling you EP over NADAL-KOHLSCHREIBER pick.

PetrGasparik · 08-13-10, 08:58 AM

Originally posted by EaglesPhan36

NADAL-KOHLSCHREIBER OVER 20.5 [-105]
On hard courts, Kohlschreiber definitely has a chance to make this competitive. The German has done well enough to get to the QFs in Toronto this week with his best attribute to me being his nerve. He saved 11 break points against Lu yesterday, including a crucial double break point situation in the 2nd set where he likely would have lost the match if he got broke. He saved 5/7 breakers against Troicki. His serve has been solid and will need to be against Nadal. Rafa's serve has been good this week with only two break chances slipping away from the Spaniard. So far, Nadal seems to be cruising along, perhaps conserving energy for when he needs it most. That would suit me fine again in this match if he lets Kohlschreiber stay close and this over gets a chance to cash. Would not be surprised if Kohlschreiber serves extremely well that he grabs a set in this one too.

just for info - @1.61 for O18.5 or @2.30 for O20 at bet365

EaglesPhan36 · 08-13-10, 09:02 AM

Originally posted by PetrGasparik

Ok, how much do you suggest for Federer future? I have 3 equal bets (Nadal, Berdych, Soderling) with Nadal @ 3.25 - it doesn't gives too much room. Or I will be in little loss when Nadal wins tournament TY in advance

I would just do the same amount you did for Berdych.

Yezzir · 08-13-10, 09:59 AM

Gone for another Challenger double.

Van der Merwe/Mello.

+100.

limitation · 08-13-10, 10:03 AM

Hey EP, any safe parlay of the day?

EaglesPhan36 · 08-13-10, 10:16 AM

Daddy doesn't know Italian, but I know how to read scoreline! Trevisan wins 7-6, 6-2.

Challenger Trani: Matteo Trevisan vola in semifinale. Battuto Daniele Giorgini per 76 62

http://www.livetennis.it/post/54728/challenger-trani-matteo-trevisan-vola-in-semifinale-battuto-daniele-giorgini-per-76-62

EaglesPhan36 · 08-13-10, 10:36 AM

CHALLENGER PLAY

HUTA GALUNG -135
The Dutchman draws Italian Cipolla in the QFs at the Trani Cup. Galung has been impressive this week in winning over Pospisil & Machado in straights. It's even more impressive considering he was making a surface switch from hard courts. Cipolla had to work hard to make it past a qualifier yesterday, winning 6-4 in the 3rd set. He played pretty well at the San Marino Challenger last week too, falling in the semis to Volandri. Otherwise though, his 2010 clay season has been mostly disappointing. Throw in a 2-0 head-2-head advantage for Huta Galung, both coming on clay although a little dated in 2007 & 2008. Still, he handled Cipolla easily in both encounters.

PetrGasparik · 08-13-10, 10:56 AM

Anastasia Pavljušenka! Look at that woman - from 1-5 to 4-5 and serving!

limitation · 08-13-10, 11:06 AM

Go Ana! I was scared to put my normal units on here. So I just played a very small bet but I will be cheering for you Ana!

PetrGasparik · 08-13-10, 11:09 AM

she was @10.0 to win set on 1-5. Now she is 6-5 and serving

edit:7-5, 6 gems in row

EaglesPhan36 · 08-13-10, 11:27 AM

Taking Federer at +350 to cover the Berdych future. If Berdych is good enough to beat Federer, he'll be good enough to beat Djokovic and same goes with Federer for me if he beats Berdy, he beats Djokovic.

NALBANDIAN-MURRAY OVER 23.5 [-125]
I saw Murray's flair for helping bettors yesterday with that 2nd set. He did that in LA too against Lopez if you look back. With Nalbandian playing so much in the past two weeks, figure the Scot will snag a set at least unless he is totally over matched. I also think Murray's best chance to win comes in a 3 set scenario. "Heat" should not be a major factor here with temps at 80 in Toronto although the humidity might make it muggy. Obviously needs to go three sets for this to hit as the likelihood of the total getting home in 2 is low.

limitation · 08-13-10, 11:30 AM

EP, do you think Nalbandian has a chance to win the whole thing if he wins against Murray? He beat Nadal and Federer before in the past and his confidence and playing form seems to be sky high at the moment.

EaglesPhan36 · 08-13-10, 11:39 AM

I just don't think he can get through three quality players in a row having played this much tennis. Of course since this is just best of 3, anything can happen from match to match. But I would bet against it.

EaglesPhan36 · 08-13-10, 11:41 AM

Pavlyuchenkova apparently wanted to donate a set, maybe not all that unexpected after the energy she used to come back in the 1st. Hopefully she recovers in the 3rd. Her 2nd serve has been getting killed.

EaglesPhan36 · 08-13-10, 11:57 AM

Wow that total got hammered at 5Dimes. Now -155.

Rainman12 · 08-13-10, 11:57 AM

with you on huta galung EP

also had a parlay with kunitsyn and volandri. Good luck with your other plays today

EaglesPhan36 · 08-13-10, 12:09 PM

For anyone who needs it, Volandri won easily.

Dank_Fire · 08-13-10, 12:10 PM

Originally posted by EaglesPhan36

Taking Federer at +350 to cover the Berdych future. If Berdych is good enough to beat Federer, he'll be good enough to beat Djokovic and same goes with Federer for me if he beats Berdy, he beats Djokovic.

NALBANDIAN-MURRAY OVER 23.5 [-125]
I saw Murray's flair for helping bettors yesterday with that 2nd set. He did that in LA too against Lopez if you look back. With Nalbandian playing so much in the past two weeks, figure the Scot will snag a set at least unless he is totally over matched. I also think Murray's best chance to win comes in a 3 set scenario. "Heat" should not be a major factor here with temps at 80 in Toronto although the humidity might make it muggy. Obviously needs to go three sets for this to hit as the likelihood of the total getting home in 2 is low.

Nice Write Up EP....Im on this one too got it @ -130 i see the line has moved to -151 now

Munjoz · 08-13-10, 12:18 PM

good luck today

EaglesPhan36 · 08-13-10, 12:18 PM

Pavlyuchenkova with an early break in the 3rd and consolidates for a 3-0 lead.

Rainman12 · 08-13-10, 12:23 PM

Originally posted by EaglesPhan36

For anyone who needs it, Volandri won easily.

thanks EP

EaglesPhan36 · 08-13-10, 12:44 PM

Pavlyuchenkova gets it done. Murray cruising in the 1st. Need Nalbandian to fight back and take the 2nd for that total.

Mirar Baseball · 08-13-10, 12:52 PM

EP you were betting Lu yesterday. Have you seen any of the match? How much do you think Kohl needs to elevate his game to not be anhiliated 6-3 6-2? He seemed to serve an ace every other time I was about to throw a punch at my monitor (and those times were plentiful, and yes I had a bet against Lu).

Any insight into how much trouble Nadal could have with this Aryan?

jorge1 · 08-13-10, 01:20 PM

the NADAL/KOLESLAWBURGER O20.5 won correct??? Congrats!!! i tailed you on this, also on the HUNG wager! thanks again

EaglesPhan36 · 08-13-10, 01:22 PM

Figures this is the day fatigue and a good opponent got Nalbandian. Had been waiting to pounce on this day, but I thought it would have been sooner. That total got blasted. Onto the next. I bet on Lu yesterday just as a matter of principle because I did not think Kohlschreiber deserved a -200 tag. Did not get to see the match, but Lu apparently had a foot problem. Don't know if those Kohly aces were a product of that or not.