Stacocakes Rogers Cup/Cincy Masters thread

**fuglyboy86hi** · 08-20-09, 07:20 PM

not gonna pick clijsters?
JJ found it very difficult to hold her serve in the last match and she has already won a title last week.So maybe its kim time.

**Stacocakes** · 08-20-09, 11:16 PM

Nice hit on Simon Eagles. +200 dogs are always sweet. Also saw Hewitt won so it looks like you are back on the horse.Lets keep it going

Guys have any leans for tomorrow?

I was out tonight so wasnt able to monitor my sharapova bet to make sure everything was going good but luckily she beat zvonreva in two sets and the parlay hit. In-play Federer, which I hedged, also came through so it was another winning day. Serena Williams, Djokovic and Nadal all won so the outrights are still alive.

Clijsters in a third set right now. Still think she will win the match.Not going to bet it in-play though

Checking over tomorrows matches. Lets see what there is :

Federer/Hewitt

They have played head to head about 16,000 times. Jesus christ. Hewitt is 6-14 career vs Federer and he hasnt beaten him since 2003. Federer is the play for this match, and I think he loses to Murray by the way after this but that is another point, but the -500 on Federer is a no play. Especially since he almost lost to Ferrer for **** sakes. Ill pass

Murray/Benneteau

-3300 for Murray?Dont even get me started....why have this ****ing line?Just put the price up for Benneteau and thats it.Who would ever bet -3300 on anyone prematch.... Benneteau is not worth a play because he wont win anyways

Simon/Djokovic and Berdych/Nadal have no lines as of yet. Nadal is 4-3 lifetime vs Berdych. Since I have the Nadal and Djokovic futures I dont really want to bet against either of them in this situation. Both of these matches are after the Murray and Federer matches so I will wait till tomorrow when the lines are out to make a decision on who will win.

Dementieva/Stosur

Dementieva is 3-2 lifetime vs Stosur. Stosur is coming into this match playing well while Dementieva almost lost today. Was hoping that the line on Stosur would be alot higher because +124 doesnt really excite me. Going to pass on this match

No other lines out for tomorrow so will just wait till then to make any official plays. Nothing really jumping out at me. I have three of the players as outright bets (Serena,Djokovic and Nadal) so I dont really want to go against any of them here at this point. Going to ride those out. Really liking Sharapova to play in the finals against Serena and I saw Maria last night at +500 and was thinking about it but chickened out. SHould have taken it. I just looked now and Maria is +560.I cant believe it. I am taking some Maria outrights here.The odds are to good to pass up.

Added play : Sharapova to win +560

**Stacocakes** · 08-20-09, 11:20 PM

Pisses me off that the Jankovic match is in a tight third set and what do I have on tv here....the ****ing Sharapova match that is already over. She is hot so that makes up for it a bit but still.Jankovic/Clijsters match looks to be a good one. I hope they play all night so Maria can get some rest

**Stacocakes** · 08-20-09, 11:56 PM

Unbelievable match this Clijsters/Jankovic. At one point it looked like Kim was going to finish her off because she had the break and then she blew the break, then she got the break back and then she blew it...and then she blew it again....Jankovic serving for the match now........2 match points.........

Love staring at a scoreboard.......

cmon......

nothing happening..................

Boom Jankovic wins. Good thing I didnt bet it since as I said earlier I thought Clijsters would win this. Jankovic is 2-4 career vs Sharapova. I feel a bit better with Sharapova playing Jankovic potentially then if she was playing Clijsters.

**Stacocakes** · 08-21-09, 10:26 AM

Not much happening today betting wise for me. On the mens side I already have Nadal and Djokovic so it wouldnt be smart to oppose them at this point haha. Federer and Murrays odds are to high and they will both win surely so there are no plays there.Not even worth it to parlay them.

On the womens side, already have serena williams and Sharapova futures so once again I am just going to let those ride and not bet any further on them. Jankovic should win her match but her odds are to high.Will pass on that.As far as Dementieva goes, I have a feeling about stosur winning this match but I wish the odds were a bit juicier for her so I will pass on that

Good luck to you guys today.Hope you guys make some money.Im just going to watch these matches and see what happens

**GoldRush7** · 08-21-09, 11:02 AM

How has Nadal been looking? I haven't been paying much attention just a casual fan. His odds seem pretty fair against berdych... any insight?

**GoldRush7** · 08-21-09, 11:05 AM

parlayed with fed I could get 2 to win 1 but im pretty hesitant to pull the trigger being that the only match I saw Nadal play since his injury was him getting beat down by potro

**Stacocakes** · 08-21-09, 12:14 PM

Nadal hasnt been that great to be honest. Showing alot of rust and his movement isnt like it was before but that could be expected since he is just coming back from the injury. At small odds Nadal is worth a play just based on his name alone and his heart but at odds of -500 or anything like that I would recommend to stay away. Berdych is a player that when on his game can beat the best, though he is rarely on his game. I dont think there is much value in Nadal -245 over Berdych at this point. Berdych has some powerful groundstrokes and it could prove to hurt Nadal because he will be forced to move around the court alot. When it comes to the big points in the match though, Berdych will probably choke as always and Nadal will remain strong so Rafa will probably win

**Stacocakes** · 08-21-09, 12:16 PM

Murray down a set and a break to Benneteau. Murray was like -3300 for this match. unbelievable. You can get Murray at -120 one set and a break down.......you would think you could get some better odds then that.Im going to stay away.Benneteau is french and that means that he chokes with the best of them

**Stacocakes** · 08-21-09, 12:22 PM

haha wow big surprise very next game Murray breaks back

Odds went from -120 to now -250 for Murray haha

**GoldRush7** · 08-21-09, 12:31 PM

Here comes murray

**Stacocakes** · 08-21-09, 12:32 PM

Now Murray is up a break.This match is over.Benneteau had his chance

Amazing how the players that are not that good just die off after the first sign of adversity. If they win the first set and then keep on holding there serve everything is ok but as soon as they are broken they fold up the tent and its over.Thats the difference between a top 10 player and bums like Benneteau

**fuglyboy86hi** · 08-21-09, 12:52 PM

took murray at even....i think i should hedge now

**Stacocakes** · 08-21-09, 12:58 PM

Benneteau is dead. May retire or just play out the string

3 bps murray.This match is done its only a matter of time

**Stacocakes** · 08-21-09, 01:00 PM

For **** sakes he blew all 3 break points.Im just going to be quiet now.Must have jinxed him

**Stacocakes** · 08-21-09, 01:01 PM

If you guys want to see an interesting stat, you should check out when a player has 2 or 3 bps and then blows them and its deuce, that player almost always gets the next point.It makes no sense.It just happened again with Murray here.It seems to happen like 70% of the time

**Stacocakes** · 08-21-09, 01:09 PM

murray will break this game 95%

**Stacocakes** · 08-21-09, 01:12 PM

I told you he would break there. It was a 95% chance of a break because I had bet Murray in-play in the second set and was starting to feel a bit iffy about it so I hedged my bet a little bit right before that Benneteau service game and guess what happened, yup break. **** me

**Stacocakes** · 08-21-09, 01:29 PM

Nice hit with Murray Fugly. I chickened out and won very little. Should have just left it.I knew benneteau was done. Didnt want to risk the chance he found life though

**EaglesPhan36** · 08-21-09, 01:33 PM

Simon-Djokovic is an interesting one to me. All three of their head-2-heads have gone 3 sets and been fairly close, especially the one in February of this year that had two sets at 7-5 to Djokovic. Wish my book had an Over/Under for this because I'd be on the Over. I think Simon to win the 1st set might also be decent as Djokovic has to adjust his game to a more passive player versus yesterday's match against Chardy who is a bit more aggressive. I'd love to take Simon at a great price again, but I'm not sure he has the game to win at where both players are. Djokovic's hard court losses mainly come to guys who possess bigger weapons too, something Simon does not have.

**EaglesPhan36** · 08-21-09, 01:40 PM

Hell with it. I think this goes 3 sets and that gives the underdog the value. Simon at +235 for just a little bit to make the afternoon interesting.

**EaglesPhan36** · 08-21-09, 03:49 PM

Simon the same as yesterday, having trouble getting his first serve in (44% early). Simon has already made some big saves on break opps in his 2nd service game. That was the most impressive part of his game yesterday vs. Davydenko. He made some saves against him at 15-40 to wind up winning the game. Simon is going to have to figure out how to win some points on Djokovic's serve or this won't last all that long. 3-3, but Djokovic is over 80% on 1st & 2nd serves.

**EaglesPhan36** · 08-21-09, 04:08 PM

Simon got broke & Djokovic won the 1st set 6-4. Don't see this going 3 now unless Djokovic falls asleep. Simon hasn't done dick with his serve and he still is having trouble with getting his 1st serve in.

**Stacocakes** · 08-21-09, 04:24 PM

Djokovic likes to fall asleep though

Have any night plays Eagles?

**Stacocakes** · 08-21-09, 04:33 PM

Serena won which is good.Hopefully Sharapova wins tonight as well

stosur loses so I am glad I stayed away from that match because I thought she was going to win that one.

Didnt see the match but seems Fed had an easy time with Hewitt which was pretty much what I thought would happen. Who do you guys like for tomorrow with Fed/Murray?Any lines up yet anywhere? I will be very interested to see what this line says.As of right now on Betfair both of them are at around -125 so I am guessing the actual line might be just a total pick em.Are you guys leaning murray as well given his previous form against Federer?Might be another mental thing for Federer that he has to overcome just like when he plays Rafa. At a point in the first set today Murray looked pretty gassed but he found it in him to beat Benneteau pretty easily in the last two sets so maybe he will be ok. Will be a good match regardless. Leaning Murray at this point but just want to see what the official line is before I make any play.

You got your Simon break. I kinda figured Djokovic would fall asleep like he usually does at some point. Eagles how about I give you a Simon win today and you give me a rafa win over simon tomorrow and we will be even. I lose an outright tomorrow anyways if rafa plays djo so ill do the tradeoff

**Stacocakes** · 08-21-09, 04:38 PM

Piss poor from Simon.Gives the break back the next game and then djo holds to love the game after.brutal

**Stacocakes** · 08-21-09, 04:48 PM

Djokovic looks like he has ran five marathons before playing this match

**Stacocakes** · 08-21-09, 04:56 PM

Djokovic wins but if he doesnt up his game he is going to get destroyed by Murray,Nadal or Federer.

**MilfDriller** · 08-21-09, 05:16 PM

Hewitt was hurt ... so he couldn't play. Even w/ that he only just barely missed the HC. He didn't even pursue balls or even attempt to fight... and Fed was his usual garbage in this tourney. It was like both guys would have rather been at the reading of some geologist's dissertation.

I question how much Fed will really try in tomorrow's match v. Murray. I will be fading Fed on the HC (he was 0-7 in his last 7 matches going into the Hew match ... and Murray has won something like 23 of last 28.... he even managed to win the match by 6 gms after being down a set and a break)... but may all depend on how the work the line and HC.

Fed was trash v. Chucho.... worse v. Ferrer... and he faced a shell of a Hewitt today. It was like taking the Over during the LAA over streak of 18-1 .. and it goes under. Been getting a lot of that lately.

**MilfDriller** · 08-21-09, 05:18 PM

Btw, I had the over 22.5 in the Simon match... guy was up a break in the 2nd.. gives it back. That's fine. Just give me 3 more holds. Serving at 6-5* and he pulls a Frenchy. Lose by a half.

A lot of these players looking for taxis.

**Stacocakes** · 08-21-09, 05:45 PM

Simon match was brutal. He played like Benneteau today. Benneteau got the break in the second set,already up one set, then the very next game gives the break back to Murray. Typical

Roger doesnt really care about these small tournaments and it does show ya. Seems like we are all on Murray but that means that we probably wont be seeing the kind of price that we want to see for him. I didnt see the match only saw the line score so thanks for letting me know Milfdriller. I did see the Ferrer match and he was horrible in that. Had the same situation as the Murray match today where Ferrer broke Fed then gave it right back the next game.Frustrating.

Ive got Nadal and Djokovic outrights for this tournament and of course one of those will lose but I really think the winner of that will lose to Federer or Murray in the final.Guess it was just wishfull thinking getting the lines I did for the outrights.

Nadal should be able to beat Berdych tonight and both Jankovic and Sharapova will probably win on the womans side. Might be able to get a decent price if you parlay those three together but I am hoping that Jankovic could lose somehow so Masha has an easy ride to the final.Dont think that will happen but would be nice....going to enter those three in a parlay now just to see what they would pay....pays about +142 or so... Nah I will pass.Already indirectly have money on Sharapova and Nadal. If you want something low risk though that parlay isnt that bad of an idea.

**EaglesPhan36** · 08-21-09, 05:51 PM

Staco - I watched some of the Fed match, Hewitt was clearly hurting today. Fed played a lot better than yesterday, but he didn't have to do a ton to beat Hewitt who had trouble moving to his backhand side.

Don't really see much tonight at the prices that is worth anything.

**Stacocakes** · 08-21-09, 06:37 PM

For sure Eagles.Im passing on the late matches as well

**MilfDriller** · 08-21-09, 06:54 PM

Line at Pinny is -123 for Murray. Basically no HC.

Don't like betting against Fed (unless he's playing Nadal), but don't see how Fed wins this.

**ji03** · 08-21-09, 07:37 PM

Who do you guys like between Federer and Murray? I was leaning Murray, but his performance was pretty disappointing today, so I wan ted some input.