EP36's Grand Slam Wankoff: U.S. Open

[zoo youk]

I bave Tipsarevic to win the quarter @ +475, so nothing but a straight hedge with Ferrer to cover that and break even at worst. Think you guys underestimate Ferrer. Extra day of rest and the hardest worker on tour. Going to be tough to beat.

You have to be honest in saying Tipsarevic has had a pretty easy draw to this point. It will be interesting to see if he can amp his game up to match. Just like Wawrinka with Djokovic yesterday, the serve is going to be under more pressure than it has all tournament and is key to any chance he has. He won't win if he can't get some cheap points off his serve. You rarely beat Ferrer if it comes strictly down to rallies.

If I played another bet outside of the hedge, would probably be Over 3.5 sets @ -175 but would want to parlay that with something.

jesus i am in idiot. should have played that instead of Tipsarvic +2.5 -250

wasn't available at the time tho

[EaglesPhan36]

Main Draw Record: 20-21 (-0.51)
Futures: +0.95

Day 11, September 6th
Doubles Parlay: Hradecka-Hlavackova + Bryan Brothers [-140] *2 units
Doubles: Granollers-Lopez +160

[EaglesPhan36]

Probably look at something for Djokovic-Del Potro, but going to look over a lot before deciding anything there.

[zoo youk]

gl with the picks.

i'm guessing you absolutely dont trust anything in the Azarenka Sharapova match?

[EaglesPhan36]

That one is tomorrow, so not looking at it just yet.

[EaglesPhan36]

Granollers-Lopez bet cancelled due to retirement. Lopez had a gimpy calf. Match ended tied 6-6 in the 1st. Enjoying Tipsarevic-Ferrer knowing I can't lose money no matter the outcome. Pushing for the Serb though to cash that big futures ticket.

[EaglesPhan36]

If the rest of this set continues this way and the rest of the match, this is easily the best match of the tourney. Love it.

[EaglesPhan36]

Wow. The last three points or so by Tipsarevic were incredible.

[EaglesPhan36]

Oh Lord. Daring me to start thinking about the possibilities Tipsarevic. Don't tease me bro.

[EaglesPhan36]

I hope Djokovic-Delpo is half this good. Definitelly the match of the Open.

[EaglesPhan36]

Hit the big doubles parlay today. Wound up even steven on the Tipsarevic future as I played Ferrer @ -245 to win a unit and cover. Decided to go for the pay day there and damn near had it.

Main Draw Record: 21-21 (+1.49)
Futures: -1.05

Djokovic-Del Potro Total Sets Over 3.5 [-108]
It's a little difficult to gauge where both guys are coming into this match. Djokovic bitch slapped Delpo in Cincy which I believe had to have been some measure of revenge for losing the Bronze Medal in London. That tournament is also a different beast with the heat & humidity often taking its toll on players. Night match in NY, no excuses for being worn out. To this point, Delpo has shown good poise for the most part & I think playing in the hostile environment against Roddick is a big plus heading into prime time tonight. He won't be the fan favorite, but like Berdych last night - the fans will approve if the effort is there. Djokovic has hardly been challenged, but the scoreline for his match with Wawrinka yesterday masks some faulty serving yesterday. His serve was not as stout as it had been up to that round, so there is some hope for Del Potro if Djokovic has some issues like that again. Del Potro has a simple formula I think to make this competitive - get in over 60% on his 1st serve and dominate those points. He'll need to win 70% or better on his 1st serve minimum. Secondly, his 2nd serve has to be good. If Djokovic dominates him on 2nd serve, the match could be quick. Third, when & if Djokovic offers a break point - CONVERT. The # may be few, so he has to be opportunistic.

[zoo youk]

I'm sorry man i know you had that future on Tip but i am so happy he lost after he made that bullshit move and went to the trainer down 40-15. what a fkn bulldog Ferrer is. it is insane. it doesn't even look like he hits the ball hard at all he just places it perfectly with spin.

fkn Tipsarvic cost me an 800$ swing dropping serve in the 5th set up 4-2.

[EaglesPhan36]

I still disagree with you guys. Perfectly legit injury and timeout. It's also a smart move to compose yourself in that spot. No one except a bettor on the opposite side is going to harp on that. Seen tennis players from Top 10 to Bottom 1000 take timeouts like that to compose themselves and make sure they are going to give themselves a chance to stay in the match. It's smart, not dirty. Like I said if it was reversed with Ferrer, none of the Ferrer backers would have batted an eye lash.

They've showed the replay a thousand times that something tweaked in his leg.

[zoo youk]

I still disagree with you guys. Perfectly legit injury and timeout. It's also a smart move to compose yourself in that spot. No one except a bettor on the opposite side is going to harp on that. Seen tennis players from Top 10 to Bottom 1000 take timeouts like that to compose themselves and make sure they are going to give themselves a chance to stay in the match. It's smart, not dirty. Like I said if it was reversed with Ferrer, none of the Ferrer backers would have batted an eye lash.

They've showed the replay a thousand times that something tweaked in his leg.

your probably right. I am not saying I think he faked it. i just didn't know you could do it mid game like that.

[EaglesPhan36]

If you have an "acute" injury i.e. something that happens suddenly, they can stop the match for evaluation like they did. Obviously leaves a lot of wiggle room as to legitimacy. If a player doesn't show signs of an injury and asks for a medical timeout, rules state I believe that it happens during the next changeover or maybe at the end of the current game.

[EaglesPhan36]

Excellent start to the 2nd set for Delpo. Broke Djokovic at love and then consolidated. Needs to maintain this level now.

[EaglesPhan36]

Ridiculous D from Djokovic and the break is gone. That might just be the match right there and chance to get a set for Delpo. Damn.

[EaglesPhan36]

12th game of the 2nd set =

[EaglesPhan36]

Poor Del Potro. Dude just playing maybe the best tennis of the tournament outside of Djokovic and loses the tie break. Like to see him hold up emotionally here in the 3rd, but don't know how he can't be dead on his feet right now.

[plankton43]

Poor Del Potro, and damn I needed that over. First Tips ML, now this.

[matt1216]

i hear ya man, i have the over 36.5 games here. feels dead now. Del Potro playin so well to. some of those hard corner shots hit by delpo i thought for sure were points, out of Nowhere comes the joker racket. Man just crazy tennis.

[matt1216]

joker 91-1 after winning first two sets. thats disgusting

[EaglesPhan36]

Just one of those sets. Delpo would have beaten 99% of the players on earth in that 2nd set ...

[matt1216]

Just one of those sets. Delpo would have beaten 99% of the players on earth in that 2nd set ...

Probably the best match ive seen djoker play since Aussie open

[Lakey]

Such an unlucky loss EP.

[matt1216]

to Del Potro. Guy deserved atleast a 4 setter.

[EaglesPhan36]

Yeah a shame he didn't win a set in that one. Great tennis today.

[EaglesPhan36]

Main Draw Record: 21-22 (+0.41)
Futures: -1.05

Day 12, September 7th
Parlay: Bryan Brothers + Azarenka [+120]

[zoo youk]

nice see you on Azarenka. have her in to finish out a parlay. gl to us.

[EaglesPhan36]

Going to be busy tonight/tomorrow, so posting for Saturday as well:

Day 13, September 8th
Parlay: Berdych/Murray Total Sets Over 3.5 + Djokovic [-160] *1.5 units
Djokovic-Ferrer Under 34.5 [-120]

[beefcake]

Dude,stop posting and go enjoy your vacation for petes sake!!

[EaglesPhan36]

Leaving in half an hour. Waiting for the lady to get back from getting her hair did. Going to watch some Bryan Bros. before departure!

[zoo youk]

have fun man! where you headed?

[EaglesPhan36]

In Austin. Had a blast lasrt night. Should be back to watch Serena-Azarenka. Will scoreboard watch on the trip back.

[zoo youk]

this wind is brutal. really fkn with Berydchs game