Damn nice call. I guess i gotta eat my words up, Medvedev was the fatigued one, didn't expect that.
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Comment -
Nice pick with Monfis. He needed to figure out Medvedev’s weakness and he did enough to annoy himComment -
Monfils live ML was at +501 after he lost the 1st set but I couldn't summon the courage to pull the trigger.
Kudos for the call.Comment -
Now, Mertens is copying Monfils (lol).Comment -
Thanks. I probably should have been a bit more patient picking a spot to fade Medvedev but as I mentioned if you can throw him off a bit his focus goes completely out the window down. Kid will be better for it no doubt.
Secondly I think playing that match in Sofia helped Monfils make adjustments and from that give the great odds on him to win the match. I have noticed players who play each other in a short space of time twice in different tournaments do have a tendency to swap wins as the guy who loses the first match makes adjustments to their game to win the second one. And Monfils is clearly good enough to win.
As for Stan, the -1.5 set Handicap was a bit too wishful thinking and disrespectful to Kei but Stan was looking good till he tightened up and got the win so I guess I can’t be fussed. Despite the more even h2h I’ve always though Stan matches up really well against him so whenever the odds are good for him and their form has been level I have no issues taking him.
90 - 84 - 8 (+38.638u)
Marseille 250 will be the tournament of focus for next week. Some Qualifiers today as well, don’t like a lot but will see what the odds are and go from there.Comment -
Great calls!Comment -
ATP Marseille 250, Men’s Singles, Qualifiers
Sergei Stakhovsky vs Mirza Basic
Moneyline: Mirza Basic, 2.11 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u
ATP Marseille 250, Men’s Singles, Qualifiers
Oscar Otte vs Matthias Bachinger
Moneyline: Matthias Bachinger, 1.813 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u
ATP Marseille 250, Men’s Singles, Qualifiers
Ruben Belemans vs Alexey Vatutin
Moneyline: Alexey Vatutin, 2.32 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u
ATP Marseille 250, Men’s Singles, Qualifiers
Mats Moraing vs Constante Lestienne
Moneyline: Constante Lestienne, 2.14 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1uLast edited by Jeff_Black; 02-16-19, 11:11 PM.Comment -
I managed to muster up the faith in Monfils and took him at 5's for a half decent amount actually. Not going to lie, I surprised myself having faith in him but towards the back half of set 1 it became clear he was really figuring out the ideal game plan.
I'm with you Jeff and Marseille will be my main tournaments next week too. With a little bit of Rio thrown into the mix.Comment -
Yeah I like Rio now that the same guys have had a few weeks to play on clay. I might consider an outright for that but haven’t really looked at the draw much for it.
I may do outrights for all three though :P
Normally I would say Tsonga at 6.50 is too short despite the fact he’s been playing well but I also read he’s sitting out of Indian Wells and Miami because he’s not flying over to the states as he has a health issue which is affected by long distance travel.
He may be a bit more motivated then the rest of the seeded/key players in the draw to pick up as many points as possible before clay season kicks off again I. Europe, I don’t know.
Plus his side of the draw is doable to have a deep run Rublev/Chardy/Shapa/Coric? Meh. Shapa can be a tricky guy but he can beat him. Coric is probably the best guy to draw as well. It’s his first match since his round 4 Australian Open run. A few guys have had letdowns so it’s not beyond him to have one too.
Of course Jo still has to win his games and you might as well win on front of your home crowd :PComment -
Delray Beach I feel will be a good outright too, don’t realy like the favourites in Del Porto and Isner so I may look at a couple of the other sneakies.
You may be onto something with Tiafoe, he’s 10.00 at Sportsbet but Pinnacle haven’t released their outright markets till after qualifying is done I think...Comment -
Looks like the market is with you betting against Mats. People probably getting on the "tired" train given he has a match less than 24hrs earlier that this one.
Nevertheless my approach will be to back Moraing to break serve the first few times at 5's or thereabouts. Then I'll probably leave him alone. Reckon he's returning really well at the moment.Comment -
Whoa that sure got crunched in. Oscar got crunched in a bit too so was concerned I had read things wrong but I felt Bachinger was the right player to back in this situation. We’ll see.
Also looked at the outrights for Rio on SB. Not sure if I am a fan. Probably not worth fading Thiem and when Pinnacle release their outrights he will probably be 3.00.
Think I will leave that and just do outrights for the others..Comment -
ATP Marseille 250, Men’s Singles, Qualifiers
Egor Gerasimov vs Lukas Rosol
Moneyline: Lukas Rosol, 2.25 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play
ATP Marseille 250, Men’s Singles, R1
Ugo Humbert vs Ernests Gulbis
Moneyline: Ernests Gulbis, 1.943 on Pinnacle
Stake: 2u playComment -
Any lean on Wawrinka/Monfils here in about an hour?Comment -
Are you doing much live betting these days Jeff?
I would say it's about 90% live for me these days and I really need to sit down and analyse things to work out whether it's to my detriment. A lot of great live markets if you have the ability to read the game well while it's happening, but equally, it's about resisting the wrong markets which isn't easy. Of course the addition of "cashing out" these days it means your brain is working overtime with constant calculations. Definitely more stressful imo.
Mats v Constant just started.
*Edit.
Speaking of live betting. As I said a few posts above.
Mats to win (break serve) 2nd game.
I staked 1u @ 6.0.
Result: Loss. He had a bp but it was met with an ace.
--
Mats to win (break serve) 4th game.
I staked 1u @ 5.50.
Result: Won. Got to 0-40 & broke to 30.
So far so good as far as him returning well. I'm going to keep going for now.
--
Mats to win (break serve) 6th game.
I staked 1u @ 5.00.
Result: Loss. Held to love.
Alright will wait for an important game early set 2 for one more crack as long as it isn't less than 5.0.Comment -
sup' JC! Just to add something to look for in "to break" market. If you like to bet that, I think it's good to do it towards the end of old set of balls being played. They are worn out couple of games before new balls are coming up and don't give as much adventage to the server as the new one. Of course, a lot of other factors has to be taken into consideration, but I don't think people are aware enough of that and markets are not really adjusting to it either.
Jeff, sorry for hijacking the thread with this debate
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Sup HB!!
Will reply afterwards... just posting this quickly from my phone as the match is about to start.
Btw Jeff’s all good. He’s a legend and we go way back.
Comment -
It was break point, *1-3 30-40, for Monfils to go up a double break and I cashed out. Reminded of course not to get greedy and the bet could look ordinary in the blink of an eye. Good win.
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Monfils lost 2016 finals to Klizan after winning first. I can see him choking/running out of gas here.Comment -
@JC
Jeff is definitely doing some strong work in here. Super impressive
nice timing on the cashout. Takes a lot of composure to make those type of decisions and make live betting profitable. BravoComment -
Not at all! Discussion is always welcome!
Not for a while, though on a side note I heard that bookies like Sportsbet will consider bringing back the click to call for live betting rather then the now law that everyone has to call up. Apparently they are losing a tonne of this money to offshore books and are considering it, and I don't know why the law was changed considering what they were doing is legal.
And from that, would make me hells more tempted to do it :PComment -
93 - 88 - 8 (+35.411u)
Outrights did not come through this time. Have added those deductions to my record.
Stan made the final but lost (annoying cause I suggested Monfils in my original writeup for those who wanted to add another future to their bets heh) and Querrey lost in the SF although with the way Opeika was serving he wouldn't have been a guarantee to win. That said I still nailed my writeup on Stan, he beat Nishikori and Raonic so he's shown he can compete with the top seeds and should definately be higher up in the ranks as the weeks go by.
This weeks futures talk
Not really interested in the Rio draw. There have been five different winners in the last five years and I find it difficult to back a winner with Thiem being too short. I think he can win it all but so can the other guys. At not even 3.00 it's not really worth the risk.
MARSEILLE
The Marseille draw has a mix of good and in form players, veterans and up and comings. But i'll give out my futures wagers for players who I think can win this tournament.
Jo Wilfried Tsonga, 6.50 (Bet365), Stake: 2u
Jo is in the bottom half of the draw and I don't think there is anyone he can't beat, he's a proven former winner and a guy who traditionall does well on the French hard courts (indoors). He's drawn in Borna Coric who hasn't played since the Australian Open and he has a 1-0 h2h against him and a superior indoors record. I feel Coric may use a couple of matches here perhaps as a springboard for those matches in the US. In fact many players will have one eye on those Masters (for those not playing next week) where there are a lot of points for grabs. He lost in Rotterdam to an in form Daniil Medvedev and is back at his home ground where he has already won a title in Montpellier, so why not two?
The other thing I found interesting was that he doesn't play to go to the US for the Indian Wells/Miami hardcourt swing because his health injury does not permit him to take long travels. So I feel he will be very motivated to get as deep as possible in the draw here.
The top two seeds Tsitsipas and Coric are also featuring in Dubai 2019 next week (source here: https://www.timeoutdubai.com/sport-w...oming-to-dubai) and while Tsitsipas has been ok, him and Coric being the top two seeds that do not scare people. So again I think the draw is pretty open.
Shapovalov may be his trickiest opponent in that run but I think Tsonga has been in good enough form to beat him. Likewise with other guys in his run such as Rublev and Chardy.
I've left out Goffin because while I thought he did a good job against Monfils I feel his form will come on the US hardcourts/clay part of the season and I think 9.00 is a bit too short for what I've seen.
Gilles Simon @ 17.00 (Bet365), Stake: 1u
Likewise with Tsonga, he's proven in the past he can win here, being a 2x winner. Hasn't had results go his way the last few years but he's got a good draw this time around in comparison to his last two tournaments where he has had to play Berdych and Tsonga. But on the top half of the draw I can see him gaining a bit of confidence in what should be a few wins before facing Goffin potentially. Matchup wise Goffin is probably tougher for him but he has had plenty of wins against guys like Benoit Paire and Gael Monfils who despite being in some form is suspect to inconsistency. If there is a tournament where he can pull off a run on a surface he was 12-6 on in 2018 it's him.
DELRAY BEACH
A tournament where in my eyes it's not really worth backing the short priced favourites in Del Potro or Isner. Del Potro is easing back in to things from an injury and while Isner can go on a run on the fast American hard courts he can just as easily lose to someone who's serving well as we saw in New York. Also I believe Isner is signed up to the Acapulco 500 event next week (source here: https://www.mundodeportivo.com/tenis/20181016/452399846828/acapulco-anuncia-a-rafa-nadal-para-su-atp-de-2019.html)
Anyway the horses I'm backing will be below.
Taylor Fritz @ 15.00 (Sportsbet) Stake: 1uDid not have the intention of backing him initially but the more I thought about it and from what I have seen of him in 2019 so far the more I thought there was definate value at that price. Bet365 have him at 12.00. He looks motivated and ready to play here. After Australia where he showed some nice chops against Monfils/Federer he went to Newport Beach to pick up a Challenger title and played himself into some form. And he has the serve to back himself up here to make a run. Form wise he's probably with Opeika and it'll be a tough gig for Del Potro drawing some of these big serving giants early on who have played plenty of matches in 2019.
Francis Tiafoe @ 9.00 (Bet365) Stake: 1u
On the bottom half of the draw Tiafoe is defending champ, and while it's hard to defend a title the kid can definately do it. Wouldn't worry much about his early loss in New York as he knew he would be coming here to defend his title the following week. He has been presented with a pretty good draw to make a run here and I think personally he will also be motivated to defend his (1st?) title this week.
Nick Kyrgios @ 9.00 (Bet365) Stake: 1u
Unmotivated or not, Kyrgios is always a dangerous floater on any hardcourts. He's had some time to freshen up and will want to have some good match practice and play himself into some form for the up and coming Masters events. He'll have a chip on his shoulder after his first round exit at the Australian Open and Davis Cup omission against a guy in John Millman who was picked for the tie. He has a bit of a tricky draw to navigate through but likewise there isn't anyone he cannot beat in that draw.Comment -
ATP Marseille 250, Men’s Singles, Qualifiers
Maxime Janiver vs Simone Bolleli
Moneyline: Maxime Janiver, 2.429 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play
ATP Marseille 250, Men’s Singles, Qualifiers
Gregoire Berrare vs Egor Gerasimov
Handicap: Gregoire Berrare -1, 1.917 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play
ATP Marseille 250, Men’s Singles, Qualifiers
Alexy Vatutin vs Mathias Bachinger
Handicap: Mathias Bachinger -2, 1.877 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play
ATP Marseille 250, Men’s Singles, Qualifiers
Sergiy Stakhovsky vs Constante Lestienne
Handicap: Constante Lestienne -1.5, 1.925 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u playComment -
ATP Marseille 250, Men’s Singles, R1
Antoine Hoang vs Gilles Simon
Set Handicap: Gilles Simon -1.5 sets, 1.892 on Pinnacle
Stake: 2u play
ATP Marseille 250, Men’s Singles, R1
Hubert Hurkacz vs Filip Krajinovic
Handicap: Filip Krajinovic -3, 1.847 on Pinnacle
Stake: 2u playComment -
94 - 93 - 8, (+29.288u)
ATP Marseille 250, Men’s Singles, R1
Peter Gojowyczk vs Damir Dzuhmur
Handicap: Damir Dzumhur -1.5, 1.952 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play
ATP Marseille 250, Mens Singles, R1
Simone Bolleli vs Benoit Paire
Handicap: Benoit Paire -2.5, 1.847 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play
ATP Marseille 250, Mens Singles, R1
Fernando Verdasco vs Egor Gerisamov
Handicap: Fernando Verdasco -3.5, 1.925 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play
ATP Marseille 250, Mens Singles, R1
Andrey Rublev vs Jo Wilfried Tsonga
Handicap: Jo Wilfried Tsonga -3.5, 1.735 on Pinnacle
Stake: 2u play
ATP Marseille 250, Mens Singles, R1
Jeremy Chardy vs Matteo Berreteni
Moneyline: Jeremy Chardy, 1.84 on Pinnacle
Stake: 2u playComment -
95 - 97 - 8, (+24.135u)
Yuck
ATP Marseille 250, Men’s Singles, R1
Matthias Bachinger vs Steve Darcis
Moneyline: Matthias Bachinger, 2.04 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play
ATP Marseille 250, Men’s Singles, R2
Mikhail Kukushkin vs Denis Shapovalov
Total Games: Over 22.5 Games, 1.97 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play
ATP Marseille 250, Men’s Singles, R1
Peter Gojowyczk vs Gilles Simon
Handicap: Gilles Simon -2.5, 1.88 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u playComment -
98 - 97 - 8, (+27.025u)
ATP Marseille 250, Men’s Singles, R2
Mateo Berrettini vs Andrey Rublev
Total Score: Over 23.5 Games, 1.98 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play
ATP Marseille 250, Men’s Singles, R2
Fernando Verdasco vs Matthias Bachinger
Handicap: Matthias Bachinger +3.5, 1.892 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play
ATP Marseille 250, Men’s Singles, R2
Ugo Humbert vs Borna Coric
Handicap: Ugo Humbert +3, 1.892 on Pinnacle
Moneyline: Ugo Humbert, 2.84 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u & 0.5u plays
ATP Marseille 250, Men’s Singles, R2
David Goffin vs Benoit Paire
Handicap: Benoit Paire +3, 1.90 on Pinnacle
Moneyline: Benoit Paire, 2.73 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u & 0.5u plays
Gross, I'm betting on Benoit Paire to win a match...
Comment -
Like all those. Humbert is up and coming. Paire plays to the level of competition. Expect a huge game from him here.Comment -
Was hoping for 22.5 or 23 for Berrettini/Rublev but think both are serving well enough to hope for three sets and expect a tiebreaker too.
Not sold on Coric's run in Australia and plenty of guys have struggled after going on decent runs so far.
I remember being antsy about a Paire and Berdych match (where I backed Berdych) a few weeks ago and he beat Paire 6-2 6-0 lol and I wasn't surprised. Likewise here.
Paire isn't a guy I'd ride over a few games but in this instance where he is a dog, against an out of form player, yep no issue.Comment -
101 - 100 - 8, (+27.229u)
ATP Marseille 250, Mens Singles, QF
Andrey Rublev vs Mikhail Kukushkin
Total Games: Over 22.5 Games, 1.917 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play
ATP Marseille 250, Mens Singles, QF
Ugo Humbert vs Matthias Bachinger
Handicap: Ugo Humbert -3, 1.877 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play
ATP Marseille 250, Mens Singles, QF
David Goffin vs Gilles Simon
Moneyline: Gilles Simon, 2.56 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play
Comment -
102 - 102 - 8 (+26.106u)
ATP Marseille 250, Men’s Singles, SF
David Goffin vs Stefanos Tsitsipas
Moneyline: David Goffin, 2.04 on Pinnacle
Stake: 2u play
ATP Marseille 250 Men’s Singles,SF
Mikhail Kukushkin vs Ugo Humbert
Moneyline: Mikhail Kukushkin, 2.18 on Pinnacle
Stake: 2u playComment
