2019 Tennis Season - Picks and Analysis

[Jeff_Black]

Absolutely rediculous. So many break points by Pouille... how is Raonic +100 live right now smh

Yeah Pouille was absolutely playing better that whole set lol. Minus the Raonic serve as I said he wins it sooner
But same thing has happened before and he's pulled through so here's hoping. ML bet is icing on the cake really

[nuxx??]

Not a single first serve landed in first 5 points on Raonics' serve and he doesn't capitalize. Poullie playing like hot garbage right now.

[Conqueror]

Too bad when an ATP match begins to turn into a WTA match. I'm sorry I said that.

[DavidGoliath5003]

Hopefully Pouille wakes up right now

[BigDawg11]

atleast +5 officially can't lose.

[BigDawg11]

Great work Jeff.

[Jeff_Black]

Can't believe our luck there with the 40-30 point where Raonic let Pouille's shot go in for it to be a winner
if he hits the volley it's 5-5

[DavidGoliath5003]

Can't believe our luck there with the 40-30 point where Raonic let Pouille's shot go in for it to be a winner
if he hits the volley it's 5-5

Crazy lucky

[DavidGoliath5003]

Raonic played well considering he just came off injury... guy showed Heart today

[Jeff_Black]

40 - 41 - 4 (+18.284u)

Nishikori retires, ah well
We'll take two ML upsets any day

[Jeff_Black]

Australian Open, Womens Singles, SF
Karolina Pliskova vs Naomi Osaka
Handicap: Naomi Osaka -0.5 @ 1.925 on Pinnacle
Stake: 2u play

Australian Open, Womens Singles, SF
Danielle Collins vs Petra Kvitova
Handicap: Danielle Collins +4.5 @ 2.10 on Pinnacle
Set Handicap: Danielle Collins +1.5 Sets @ 2.16 on Pinnacle
Stake: 2u each

[Jeff_Black]

Australian Open, Mens Singles, SF
Rafael Nadal vs Stefanos Tsitsipas
Handicap: Stefanos Tsitsipas +6 @ 1.98 on Pinnacle
Set Handicap: Stefanos Tsitsipas +2.5 Sets @ 1.806 on Pinnacle
Moneyline: Stefanos Tsitsipas @ 5.57 on Pinnacle
Stake: 2u, 3u and 1u

For the reasons we discussed earlier

[Conqueror]

What happened to Nishikori? Did he tweak an ankle?
Sad to be denied what was shaping up to be an easy winner.

[Conqueror]

Australian Open, Mens Singles, SF
Rafael Nadal vs Stefanos Tsitsipas
Handicap: Stefanos Tsitsipas +6 @ 1.98 on Pinnacle
Set Handicap: Stefanos Tsitsipas +2.5 Sets @ 1.806 on Pinnacle
Moneyline: Stefanos Tsitsipas @ 5.57 on Pinnacle
Stake: 2u, 3u and 1u

For the reasons we discussed earlier

Amen!

[nuxx??]

If Tsitsi takes 7 games i'll be surprised.

[Jeff_Black]

What happened to Nishikori? Did he tweak an ankle?
Sad to be denied what was shaping up to be an easy winner.

His right quad looked off for most of the game, was struggling to move on it and called for the trainer after the first set. The matches probably caught up with him but based off the way it was going it would have been pointless to play on and only take three games off Novak in that match.

[Jeff_Black]

40 - 43 - 4 (+14.284u)

Australian Open, Womens Singles, SF
Karolina Pliskova vs Naomi Osaka
Set Handicap: Naomi Osaka -1.5 Sets @ 2.91 on Pinnacle
Stake: 2u play

[DavidGoliath5003]

If Tsitsi takes 7 games i'll be surprised.

7 games should easily happen.. Tsistpas has a great serve but will hit more winners than tiafoe

[chargers4222]

40 - 43 - 4 (+14.284u)

Australian Open, Womens Singles, SF
Karolina Pliskova vs Naomi Osaka
Set Handicap: Naomi Osaka -2.5 Sets @ 2.91 on Pinnacle
Stake: 2u play

If Naomi Osaka wins by more than 2.5 sets, I will swim to Australia to congratulate her on achieving such a mathematically impossible feat.

[Jeff_Black]

If Naomi Osaka wins by more than 2.5 sets, I will swim to Australia to congratulate her on achieving such a mathematically impossible feat.

Thanks for pointing out my mistake. It's been edited for your convenience.

[Jeff_Black]

7 games should easily happen.. Tsistpas has a great serve but will hit more winners than tiafoe

Think Tiafoe's mediorce movement got exposed two nights ago too. Plus Tsitsipas is a better mental player. An interesting match for sure.

[Jeff_Black]

41 - 47 - 4 (+8.224u)

Australian Open, Womens Singles, Final
Petra Kvitova vs Naomi Osaka
Total Games: Under 22 Games @ 1.97 on Pinnacle
Stake: 5u play

Australian Open, Mens Singles, SF
Novak Djokovic vs Lucas Pouille
Handicap: Lucas Pouille +7.5 @ 2.04 on Pinnacle
Stake: 5u play

[dhristov211]

41 - 47 - 4 (+8.224u)

Australian Open, Womens Singles, Final
Petra Kvitova vs Naomi Osaka
Total Games: Under 22 Games @ 1.97 on Pinnacle
Stake: 5u play

Australian Open, Mens Singles, SF
Novak Djokovic vs Lucas Pouille
Handicap: Lucas Pouille +7.5 @ 2.04 on Pinnacle
Stake: 5u play

Under because no momentum swings? If one girl gets down she self destructs?

[Jeff_Black]

Under because no momentum swings? If one girl gets down she self destructs?

Yeah I thought both of them are in good enough form to finish the job. Unfortunately Osaka was playing drunk when she was trying to save those three match points

41 - 49 - 4 (-1.776u)

Australian Open, Mens Singles, Final
Novak Djokovic vs Rafael Nadal
Handicap: Novak Djokovic -2 @ 2.01 on Pinnacle
Stake: 10u play

Two very good players but Nadal has had a cupcake draw with opponents who beat themselves and couldn’t break his serve. That’s a completely different narrative vs Novak, no way Nadal won’t get that many easy service games this game.

[DavidGoliath5003]

Yeah I thought both of them are in good enough form to finish the job. Unfortunately Osaka was playing drunk when she was trying to save those three match points

41 - 49 - 4 (-1.776u)

Australian Open, Mens Singles, Final
Novak Djokovic vs Rafael Nadal
Handicap: Novak Djokovic -2 @ 2.01 on Pinnacle
Stake: 10u play

Two very good players but Nadal has had a cupcake draw with opponents who beat themselves and couldn’t break his serve. That’s a completely different narrative vs Novak, no way Nadal won’t get that many easy service games this game.

I agree, Jeff. Good luck

[Jeff_Black]

^I could have analysed that way more but honestly I felt like the key points I made there basically are what happened.
Nadals draw compared to Novak was like going from a challenger tournament to playing against men who have been around ages in a grand slam lol

Anyway be nice to have a little break for the time being, women’s events that don’t interest me but I’ll definately be looking into the Davis Cup this weekend.

With the tournament format potentially changing I reckon a lot of teams who haven’t won in a while or who think they have a shot will go hard at it

[Jeff_Black]

42 - 49 - 4 (+8.324u)

Whilst there is a bit of a break i'll share a bit of information that I received about one of the kids who played in the Australian Open who has the potential to make his mark in the next 24 months. The people who I have spoken to have known guys like De Minaur and Popyrin since they were very young and followed their junior careers, and guys like Tomic since they were 10. And they have said the following about them:

As mentioned his name is Alexi Popyrin

Out of all the Australian juniors outside of Kyrgios, it is not De Minaur, or Tomic that has the potential to get better results, it is Popyrin. Tomic's awkward game style took people a bit of time to figure out, and he's pretty much been as good as he will get. Guy is a dickhead, and has been since he was 10. Nothing surprising there.
Popyrin's upside is higher then De Minaurs whilst De Minaur is playing very well now, he won't be much better then he is. Popyrin has a high tennis IQ and is a potential top 10 player, as well as having the size for it.

Popyrin is more of a mental thing, and he has matured a bit later then some other players in his age group, but all hope is not lost yet.
He is actually better then Kyrgios in most aspects, except for two aspects, serve and backhand. And those are fixable things, easily. He is fast and is a great mover. He is fantastic on clay and would fancy his chances at the French Open once Nadal retires. His most recent game at the AO his serve was terrible and had nerves, but once he matures and he should as he takes more time there is potential for him to be as high as a top 10 player in 24 months time, in 2021.
Never resorted to cheating when he was a junior, unlike Tomic.

Just worth keeping an eye out for him and seeing how he goes.

[Jeff_Black]

Odds on Davis Cup tie winners have been put out by Pinnacle, and looking through them/team lineups to see what represents good value with a chance to win the tie as well so i'll put a few up.

Also my rule is if I have selected a country to win the tie I will NOT be betting on the individual matches, those will come out tommorow when the odds are released when the order of play is determined. None of the single matches from the below ties will probably interest me either for that matter.

ITF Davis Cup, Qualifying Round
Czech Republic vs Netherlands
Tie winner: Czech Republic @ 2.15 on Pinnacle
Stake: 2u play

This one is a bit surprising. The Czechs are at home and have guys with a tonne of Davis Cup experience, plus I give them the edge in the doubles. They are playing on indoor which should benefit Rosol/Vesely two guys with a tonne of experience on the tour. I think the wrong country is favoured here.

ITF Davis Cup, Qualifying Round
Austria vs Chile
Tie winner: Chile @ 1.729 on Pinnacle
Stake: 2u play

The Davis Cup website has Thiem on the team lists but he's actually withdrawn from the tie and with that goes Austria's two close to guaranteed wins. The Chillians will love the dirt with Nicolas Jarry their best chance of getting two rubber wins. Doubles may edge with Austria but I think Chile could put up a good fight if it came down to it. The favouritism is right because they're the road team, but I think they should be shorter.

ITF Davis Cup, Qualifying Round
Slovakia vs Canada
Tie winner: Canada @ 1.961 on Pinnacle
Stake: 2u play

The odds are right because the surface is a slight edge to the Slovaks and they are the home team but I think the Canadians have enough talent led by potential slam winners in the future in Shapovalov and Auger-Alliasime to take this tie out. Clay is probably not their preferred surface but outside of Klizan who isn't a certainty to win but better then everyone listed for this tie on clay I still wouldnt count out Shapovalov's form to get two wins. The Canadians also have the better doubles experience IMO which I think will be an advantage.
Shapovalov had a good Australian Open and was defaulted in a Davis Cup match a few years ago, I think he will want to make amends for that silly mistake.

ITF Davis Cup, Qualifying Round
Italy vs India
Tie winner: India @ 2.90 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

Taking a stab here with a bit of value, not as confident as the others but I think there is enough value in the young Indian team to take out this rubber. Gunneswaran and Ramanthan are capable of winning singles rubbers as they are good on grass and the doubles are led by veteran Rohan Boppana. The Italians are not very good on grass and the odds are more on the name rather then the potential of winning.

[DavidGoliath5003]

If it is on clay i worry as Klizan can beat shapovalov or Aguer-Allisme on clay without alot of problems. Our doubles team should take care of buisness.. watch a 3-2 canada win.

[DavidGoliath5003]

Didnt realize there was no pospisil for team canada doubles....

[Jeff_Black]

Yeah I took into account no Pospisil and it being on clay, outside of Klizan's singles rubbers which IMO aren't a 100% guarantee I can't see the others being a higher percentage shot of winning their singles matches. But we'll see how it pans out. Think the young Canadians are more motivated here IMO.

[DavidGoliath5003]

Yeah I took into account no Pospisil and it being on clay, outside of Klizan's singles rubbers which IMO aren't a 100% guarantee I can't see the others being a higher percentage shot of winning their singles matches. But we'll see how it pans out. Think the young Canadians are more motivated here IMO.

Who else is playing for the slovak’s? Its time the boys carried the torch for canada. I guess Shamasdin could play as one double

[Jeff_Black]

There is 5 (one to be omitted)
Martin Klizan
Filip Horansky
Norbert Gombos
Igor Zelenay
Filip Polasek

Edit, looks like the Chile odds have shrunk since I posted that surely they knew Thiem was out? I imagine Gombos is in as the other singles player, he has the most experience at both Tour and Davis Cup level.

[Jeff_Black]

DON'T FORGET: Davis Cup matches are now best of three sets, not five.

ITF Davis Cup, Qualifiers
Australia vs Bosnia & Herzogovina
John Millman vs Damir Dzumhur
Handicap: Damir Dzumhur +4 @ 1.90 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

ITF Davis Cup, Qualifiers
Uzbekistan vs Serbia
Denis Istomin vs Filip Krajinovic
Handicap: Filip Krajinovic -2.5 @ 1.917 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

ITF Davis Cup, Qualifiers
Columbia vs Sweden
Santiago Giraldo vs Elias Ymer
Moneyline: Santiago Giraldo @ 2.29 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

ITF Davis Cup, Qualifiers
Germany vs Hungary
Philipp Kohlscriebber vs Zsombor Piros
Total Games: Under 20 Games @ 1.934 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

[Jeff_Black]

44 - 51 - 4 (+8.531u)

ITF Davis Cup, Qualifiers
Australia vs Bosnia and Herzegovina
Alex De Minaur vs Damir Dzuhmur
Handicap: Alex De Minaur -5 @ 2.03 on Pinnacle)
Stake: 1u play

ITF Davis Cup, Qualifiers
Australia vs Bosnia and Herzegovina
John Millman vs Mirza Basic
Handicap: John Millman -5 @ 2.09 on Pinnacle)
Stake: 1u play

ITF Davis Cup, Qualifiers
Sweden vs Columbia
Daniel Elahi Graham vs Elias Ymer
Money line: Elias Ymer @ 1.602 on Pinnacle
Stake: 2u

ITF Davis Cup, Qualifiers
Kazakstan vs Portugal
Mikhail Kukushkin vs Joao Sousa
Handicap: Mikhail Kukushkin -2 @ 1.97 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

ITF Davis Cup, Qualifiers
China vs Japan
Ze Zhang vs Yoshihito Nishikori
Handicap: Yoshihito Nishioka -3.5 @ 1.84 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

ITF Davis Cup, Qualifiers
China vs Japan
Zhe Li vs Taro Daniel
Handicap: Taro Daniel -3.5 @ 1.909 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play