2019 Tennis Season - Picks and Analysis

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  • Jeff_Black
    SBR MVP
    • 04-04-15
    • 3571

    #141
    50 - 53 - 7 (+11.63u)

    ATP Montpellier 250, Qualifiers
    Kenny De Schepper vs Quentin Halys
    Money line: Kenny De Schepper @ 2.06 on Pinnacle
    Stake: 1u play

    ATP Montpellier 250, Qualifiers
    Ricardis Berankis vs Nicolas Mahut
    Money line: Nicolas Mahut @ 2.69 on Pinnacle
    Stake: 1u play
    Comment
    • Jeff_Black
      SBR MVP
      • 04-04-15
      • 3571

      #142
      ATP Montpellier 250
      Futures/Outrights
      To Win The Tournament:
      - Tomas Berdych @ 7.00 (Sportsbet)
      - Jo Wilfried Tsonga @ 9.00 (Sportsbet)
      Stake: 1u each

      Only wanted to do one and felt Berdych was a tad short for my liking but I think both guys are the best players in each half of the draw. Tsonga looked great in australia as did Berdych and both came off injuries as well.
      If he makes the SF Tsonga will play Pouille and there isn’t anyone else in that top half he can’t beat.
      Berdych has Goffin in his half but Goffin and Pouille being equal favourites at 5.50 probably indicate to me this field is wide open.
      Pouille deserves to be the favourite and has a knack for winning titles but I think over three sets Tsonga can present issues for him. We’ll see if his AO run is for real.
      All these French guys are expected to play in the French HC swing here in Europe so even if they bomb out here it wont be their only chance to claim a title.
      Comment
      • Jeff_Black
        SBR MVP
        • 04-04-15
        • 3571

        #143
        51 - 54 - 7 (+12.32u)

        ATP Montpellier 250, R1
        Jo Wilfried Tsonga vs Ugo Humbert
        Handicap: Jo Wilfried Tsonga -3.5 @ 1.952 on Pinnacle
        Stake: 1u play

        ATP Montpellier 250, R1
        Mischa Zverev vs Jeremy Chardy
        Handicap: Jeremy Chardy -3.5 @ 1.80 on Pinnacle
        Stake: 1u play
        Comment
        • Jeff_Black
          SBR MVP
          • 04-04-15
          • 3571

          #144
          ATP Montpellier 250, Qualifiers
          Nicolas Mahut vs Alexey Vatutin
          Handicap: Nicolas Mahut -2 @ 1.819 on Pinnacle
          Stake: 2u play

          ATP Montpellier 250, Qualifiers
          Ruben Belemans vs Mathias Bachinger
          Moneyline: Mathias Bachinger @ 1.917 on Pinnacle
          Stake: 2u play

          ATP Montpellier 250, Qualifiers
          Marcos Baghdatis vs Quentin Halys
          Moneyline: Quentin Halys @ 2.26 on Pinnacle
          Stake: 1u play
          Last edited by Jeff_Black; 02-04-19, 06:09 AM. Reason: Adding Mahut Handicap -2, forgot to add it
          Comment
          • nuxx??
            SBR Sharp
            • 06-06-17
            • 473

            #145
            Like the Tsonga Outright. BOL
            Comment
            • Jeff_Black
              SBR MVP
              • 04-04-15
              • 3571

              #146
              Thanks. His quarter is not too hard. Think he can make it deep

              Not a convincing first match but got the job done I guess.
              Last edited by Jeff_Black; 02-04-19, 11:31 PM.
              Comment
              • Jeff_Black
                SBR MVP
                • 04-04-15
                • 3571

                #147
                53 - 56 - 8 (+13.792u)

                ATP Montpellier 250, R1
                Ernests Gulbis vs Hubert Hurkacz
                Moneyline: Ernests Gulbis @ 2.15 on Pinnacle
                Stake: 1u play

                ATP Montpellier 250, R1
                Antoine Hoang vs Steve Darcis
                Moneyline: Steve Darcis @ 2.55 on Pinnacle
                Handicap: Steve Darcis +2 @ 2.00 on Pinnacle
                Stake: 1u play

                ATP Montpellier 250, R1
                Benoit Paire vs Evgeny Donskoy
                Total Score: Over 22 Games @ 1.869 on Pinnacle
                Stake: 1u play

                ATP Montpellier 250, R1
                Pierre Hughes Herbert vs Denis Kudla
                Handicap: Pierre Hughes Herbert -3 @ 1.934 on Pinnacle
                Stake: 1u play
                Last edited by Jeff_Black; 02-04-19, 11:33 PM.
                Comment
                • Jeff_Black
                  SBR MVP
                  • 04-04-15
                  • 3571

                  #148
                  55 - 59 - 8 (+11.876u)

                  ATP Montpellier 250, R1
                  Ruben Belemans vs Marcos Baghdatis
                  Set Handicap: Ruben Belemans +1.5 Sets @ 1.719 on Pinnacle
                  Stake: 1.5u play

                  ATP Montpellier 250, R1
                  Radu Albot vs Philipp Kohlscriebber
                  Handicap: Radu Albot +3.5 @ 1.869 on Pinnacle
                  Stake: 1u play

                  ATP Montpellier 250, R2
                  Antoine Hoang vs Jeremy Chardy
                  Handicap: Jeremy Chardy -3 @ 1.943 on Pinnacle
                  Stake: 1u play

                  ATP Montpellier 250, R2
                  Filip Krajinovic vs David Goffin
                  Handicap: Filip Krajinovic +3.5 @ 1.892 on Pinnacle
                  Stake: 1u play

                  ATP Montpellier 250, R2
                  Jo Wilfried Tsonga vs Gilles Simon
                  Handicap: Jo Wilfried Tsonga -2.5 @ 1.952 on Pinnacle
                  Set Handicap: Jo Wilfried Tsonga -1.5 Sets @ 2.44 on Pinnacle
                  Stake: 1u play each

                  ATP Montpellier 250, R2
                  Benoit Paire vs Tomas Berdych
                  Handicap: Tomas Berdych -2.5 @ 1.917 on Pinnacle
                  Set Handicap:Tomas Berdych -1.5 Sets @ 2.48 on Pinnacle
                  Stake: 1u play each
                  Comment
                  • MorganSouss
                    SBR Rookie
                    • 01-05-19
                    • 6

                    #149
                    Tremendous day. Thanks for sharing.
                    Comment
                    • Jeff_Black
                      SBR MVP
                      • 04-04-15
                      • 3571

                      #150
                      Originally posted by MorganSouss
                      Tremendous day. Thanks for sharing.
                      No worries, needed that day heh. Pays to just focus on one tournament sometimes for the week, and maybe venture into the others when it's deeper into the draw. We'll see.

                      62 - 60 - 8, (+17.869u)

                      ATP Montpellier 250, R2
                      Marcel Granollers vs Denis Shapovalov
                      Total Games: Over 22.5 Games @ 2.00 on Pinnacle
                      Stake: 1u play

                      ATP Montpellier 250, R2
                      Radu Albot vs Ernests Gulbis
                      Set Handicap: Ernests Gulbis -1.5 Sets @ 2.35 on Pinnacle
                      Handicap: Ernests Gulbis -2.5 @ 1.909 on Pinnacle
                      Stake: 1u play each

                      ATP Montpellier 250, R2
                      Lucas Pouille vs Marcos Baghdatis
                      Moneyline: Marcos Baghdatis @ 3.28 on Pinnacle
                      Stake: 1u play

                      See how the others go before looking into this, but I'm interested to see how much Pouille's level drops off since his Australian Open run. There are a tonne of examples of guys who do well only to struggle to back it up later on. Being their first match. Baghdatis has played a few qualifying matches and can play on the faster indoor surfaces but there have been a few examples of guys in this tournament like Goffin and Kohlscriebber (who came back from Davis Cup duty on a different surface) who were not ready to play here.
                      Pouille can play on Indoors too and he's the defending champion here too but he also got lucky Tsonga retired hurt after having a comfortable lead.
                      More then happy with what I've seen from Baghdatis to take those odds.
                      Last edited by Jeff_Black; 02-06-19, 11:58 PM. Reason: Ernests Gulbis 1u play each* not 1u play
                      Comment
                      • Jeff_Black
                        SBR MVP
                        • 04-04-15
                        • 3571

                        #151
                        ATP Montpellier 250, QF
                        Jo Wilfried Tsonga vs Jeremy Chardy
                        Set Handicap: Jo Wilfried Tsonga -1.5 Sets @ 1.98 on Pinnacle
                        Stake: 2u play

                        ATP Montpellier 250, QF
                        Tomas Berdych vs Filip Krajinovic
                        Set Handicap: Tomas Berdych -1.5 Sets @ 1.98 on Pinnacle
                        Handicap: Tomas Berdych -3.5 @ 1.934 on Pinnacle
                        Stake: 1u play each

                        These are for the following day, just locking them in earlier. Interesting how much the set handicap odds have taken a hit since their comfortable looking previous wins. Think the same continues to happen and they roll on.

                        Gulbis always concerns me as a danger man in any small tournament draw. Guy is motivated when he plays finals, I think he won his first 7 or 8 finals straight up when he got there. He was 24.00 on Pinnacle yesterday and in to 14. Was tempted to put half a unit but I think i'll let it slide. Don't trust him as much anymore but he's still hard to beat when motivated. If he plays another tournament here in France it might be worth it if the odds are good.
                        Comment
                        • Jeff_Black
                          SBR MVP
                          • 04-04-15
                          • 3571

                          #152
                          64 - 62 - 8, (+19.149u)

                          ATP Montpellier 250, QF
                          Pierre Hueges Herbert vs Denis Shapovalov
                          Handicap: Denis Shapovalov -1.5 @ 2.03 on Pinnacle
                          Stake: 1u play

                          ATP Montpellier 250, QF
                          Marcos Baghdatis vs Radu Albot
                          Handicap: Marcos Baghdatis -1.5 @ 1.909 on Pinnacle
                          Stake: 1u play

                          Well Gulbis bombed but nice to get Baghdatis at those odds after being broken twice to win the match. Pouille pretty rusty as expected, and might have won that if it was a level field and Baghdatis hadn't had three qualifying matches under his belt and was used to the speed of the surface,
                          Last edited by Jeff_Black; 02-08-19, 12:46 AM.
                          Comment
                          • Jeff_Black
                            SBR MVP
                            • 04-04-15
                            • 3571

                            #153
                            64 - 68 - 8 (+13.149u)

                            Yuck. Rotterdam will be the next weeks focus tournament. Plenty of good players, plenty of good matches.

                            ATP Rotterdam 500, Men’s Singles, Qualifiers
                            Andre Rublev vs Denis Kudla
                            Handicap: Andrew Rublev -3.5, 1.884 on Pinnacle
                            Stake: 1u play

                            ATP Rotterdam 500, Men’s Singles, Qualifiers
                            Franko Skugor vs Ilya Ivashka
                            Handicap: Illya Ivashka -3.5, 1.775 on Pinnacle
                            Stake: 1.5u play

                            ATP Rotterdam 500, Men’s Singles, Qualifiers
                            Marius Copil vs Scott Griekspoor
                            Money line : Scott Griekspoor, 4.51
                            Stake: 0.5u

                            ATP Rotterdam 500, Men’s Singles, Qualifiers
                            Sergei Stakhovsky vs Ernests Gulbis
                            Handicap: Ernests Gulbis -2.5, 1.90 on Pinnacle
                            Stake: 1u play
                            Comment
                            • Jeff_Black
                              SBR MVP
                              • 04-04-15
                              • 3571

                              #154
                              ATP Montpellier 250, Men’s Singles, SF
                              Jo Wilfried Tsonga vs Radu Albot
                              Set Handicap: Jo Wilfried Tsonga -1.5 Sets, 1.775 on Pinnacle
                              Stake: 2u play

                              ATP Montpellier 250, Men’s Singles, SF
                              Tomas Berdych vs Pierre Hueges Herbert
                              Handicap: Tomas Berdych -2.5, 2.04 on Pinnacle
                              Stake: 1u play
                              Comment
                              • Jeff_Black
                                SBR MVP
                                • 04-04-15
                                • 3571

                                #155
                                69 - 70 - 8 (+17.03u)

                                And would have been much better if Griekspoor pulled off the upset. Had a match point in that second set as well. Oh well.

                                ATP Rotterdam 500, Men’s Singles, Qualifiers
                                Marius Copil vs Thomas Fabbiano
                                Money line: Thomas Fabbiano @ 2.90 on Pinnacle
                                Stake: 1u play

                                ATP Rotterdam 500, Men’s Singles, Qualifiers
                                Andrew Rublev vs Peter Gojowyczk
                                Handicap: Andrey Rublev -3 @ 2.00 on Pinnacle
                                Stake: 1u play

                                ATP Rotterdam 500, Men’s Singles, Qualifiers
                                Gilles Simon vs Ernests Gulbis
                                Handicap: Gilles Simon -2.5 @ 1.952 on Pinnacle
                                Stake: 1u play
                                Comment
                                • Jeff_Black
                                  SBR MVP
                                  • 04-04-15
                                  • 3571

                                  #156
                                  71 - 72 - 8 (+23.93u)

                                  Jo Wilfried Tsonga Outright cashes @ 9.00 overnight
                                  Taken away the 1u on Berdych as well so that’s a 7u profit.

                                  Will have a look at Rotterdam and post my plays for that later on today
                                  Comment
                                  • Jeff_Black
                                    SBR MVP
                                    • 04-04-15
                                    • 3571

                                    #157
                                    First off i'll start Futures talk.

                                    Like Cordoba, I don't really want to touch a clay event until the proper clay season begins. Too much variance, and as I mentioned with Cordoba a lot of the top seeds didn't seem to care much and used the tournament as a springboard and match practice for future events.
                                    1st seed Fognini out in the second round, Diego out in the QF, Carreno Busta out in the second round, Cecchinato and Mayer also seeded bombed out early.
                                    So something worth noting for future events there.

                                    A lot of the players in Cordoba are playing in Buenos Aires with the addition of Thiem who won the title in 2016 and 2018. He's a 2.719 favourite at Pinnacle to lift the trophy but even that is not great value in a tournament with a lot of tough clay courters. So probably one best to avoid for the time being.

                                    Onto New York

                                    Similar to Montpellier I really think it's an open draw and there isn't a clear cut favourite to win the tournament. John Isner is around 4s because he has a really favourable draw with the seeded players being John Millman, Adrian Mannarino and Jordan Thompson. Almost a dream.
                                    I also think Tiafoe, Millman and Johnson are overvalued. Millman has not won a title yet on the ATP Tour and he's 29 mostly playing challengers up until recently and now he's 7/1 to win New York? lol. Tiafoe will probably be over valued a bit in these smaller tournaments and while it's easy to understand why I think it's tough to back up a big Australian Open campaign. Just ask Lucas Pouille heh.
                                    But there are two players I am going to have a small wager on in that half which I think are value:

                                    Bernard Tomic @ 19.95 on Pinnacle, Stake 0.5u
                                    19.95 isn't a bad number if he can give Isner a good challenge. If he wins that match there isn't anyone in the top half that can beat him if he puts his mind to it. I know I may be looking a little ahead of things when he has to beat Lukas Lacko, but Lacko isn't really a HC player and is .500 or worse on the tour on outdoor HC's in recent time.
                                    Plus deep down, with all this feuding going on with Hewitt I think the kid has a bit of a chip on his shoulder and two players who were picked before him in Davis Cup in John Millman and Jordan Thompson are also potential future opponents. He's more talented and a better player then both, and if he plays them I think he will have a point to prove.
                                    So going back to the chances of beating Isner, no one will give him hope. But Isner is 0-2 on the year having lost to fellow Americans Reilly Opeika and Taylor Fritz. I guess he's back on home soil where he plays well but he's also a confidence guy so it'll be interesting to follow that's for sure.

                                    Mackenzie McDonald @ 41.05 on Pinnacle, Stake: 0.5u
                                    This is also waaaaaaaaaaay overs. And to me, his section is also pretty good to the point where I think he can navigate a QF appearence IMO. He has to beat two seeds in Adrian Mannarino and John Millman but they are two seeds he can beat. Mannarino was a SF here last year but had a down year on HCs in 2018. He's also lost his last 6 hardcourt matches and last 3 on indoors as well.

                                    Ryan Harrison @ 19.00 on Pinnacle), Stake: 0.5u
                                    Another really solid one that I like that I think is overs. He was a winner two years ago and skipped the Dallas Challenger to be ready for this. Hasn't had the start he wants but he's a guy who fights hard and doesn't give up. Looking at his draw, he could potentially play Sandgren and Johnson who as I mentioned I thought was over valued, so more then happy to take a stab at those odds.

                                    Sam Querrey @ 12.00 on Pinnacle, Stake: 1u
                                    My first choice to win this tournament, even though he's not playing great. He always likes to perform in the States on the faster surface and was a Finalist here last year to Kevin Anderson in three tough sets. I had Karlovic pencilled in as another smoky but he's on a collision course to play Querrey early and has a tough first match against Albot and that's one of my worries there too. But if he's playing well enough I think he has a shot to beat Tiafoe for sure.

                                    And that leaves lastly Rotterdam
                                    I'm scratching off the favourites because I don't think they will win. I definately feel Raonic/Nishikori/Medvedev won't anyway. And I'd ideally like to back someone in the bottom half where second seed Karen Khachanov is playing.

                                    David Goffin, 16.82 on Pinnacle, Stake: 0.5u play
                                    Don't sleep on him and his poor form in 2019 at the moment. He loves this surface and has made it deep when he has played here. Very tough first round match against Monfils which is the risky part of taking him. Even if he wins that he has to play Seppi whos done well here before too, Haase playing at home (pushed Federer to three sets last year) and then Tsitsipas after that. The odds are pretty fair but it's about finding those middle guys who can navigate through the draw with a bit of luck. The odds are great if he can string together a few matches in a row.
                                    Honestly if you have the funds you can back Monfils too but he made a SF at Sofia so i'll leave him for the time being.

                                    Tomas Berdych/Stan Wawrinka @ 10.73/19.14 on Pinnacle, Stake: 1u and 0.5u
                                    Both danger guys in the draw and Berdych is a former winner. Both can beat Milos and Nishikori as well. As mentioned I thought Stan was unlucky to lose to him in Australia and over three sets I think he can figure it out.
                                    As stoked as I am to hit the Tsonga outright I probably won't back him for another title, and maybe go game by game.

                                    Anyway that's enough futures talk. 4.5u invested in total. Let's hope something hits!
                                    Comment
                                    • Jeff_Black
                                      SBR MVP
                                      • 04-04-15
                                      • 3571

                                      #158
                                      ATP Rotterdam 500, Men's Singles, R1
                                      Andreas Seppi vs Peter Gojowczyk
                                      Handicap: Andreas Seppi -1, 1.97 on Pinnacle
                                      Stake: 1u play

                                      ATP Rotterdam 500, Men's Singles, R1
                                      Mikhail Kukushkin vs Robin Haase
                                      Handicap: Robin Haase -1.5, 1.917 on Pinnacle
                                      Stake: 1u play

                                      ATP Rotterdam 500, Men's Singles, R1
                                      Benoit Paire vs Stan Wawrinka
                                      Handicap: Stan Wawrinka -3, 2.02 on Pinnacle
                                      Stake: 1u play

                                      ATP Rotterdam 500, Men's Singles, R1
                                      Hyeon Chung vs Nikoloz Basilashvili
                                      Moneyline: Nikoloz Basilashvili, 2.07 on Pinnacle
                                      Stake: 1u play
                                      Comment
                                      • Jeff_Black
                                        SBR MVP
                                        • 04-04-15
                                        • 3571

                                        #159
                                        74 - 73 - 8 (+25.99u)

                                        ATP Rotterdam 500, Men's Singles, R1
                                        Marius Copil vs Ernests Gulbis
                                        Moneyline: Ernests Gulbis, 1.719 on Pinnacle
                                        Stake: 2u play

                                        ATP Rotterdam 500, Men's Singles, R1
                                        Milos Raonic vs Philipp Kohlscrieber
                                        Total Score: Over 22.5 Games, 1.862 on Pinnacle
                                        Stake: 1u play

                                        ATP Rotterdam 500, Men's Singles, R1
                                        Fernando Verdasco vs Matthew Ebden
                                        Handicap: Fernando Verdasco -3.5, 1.847 on Pinnacle
                                        Stake: 1u play

                                        ATP Rotterdam 500, Men's Singles, R1
                                        Gilles Simon vs Tomas Berdych
                                        Handicap: Tomas Berdych -2.5, 1.925 on Pinnacle
                                        Stake: 2u play

                                        ATP Rotterdam 500, Men's Singles, R1
                                        Tallon Griekspoor vs Karen Khachanov
                                        Handicap: Tallon Griekspoor +5, 1.775 on Pinnacle
                                        Moneyline: Tallon Griekspoor, 9.63 on Pinnacle
                                        Stake: 1.5u and 0.5u plays
                                        Last edited by Jeff_Black; 02-11-19, 11:47 PM.
                                        Comment
                                        • Honeybadger44
                                          SBR MVP
                                          • 01-03-14
                                          • 1675

                                          #160
                                          Great work in here! Hope you can keep it rolling
                                          Comment
                                          • Jeff_Black
                                            SBR MVP
                                            • 04-04-15
                                            • 3571

                                            #161
                                            Originally posted by Honeybadger44
                                            Great work in here! Hope you can keep it rolling
                                            Thank you! *Tips hat*, me too

                                            All of those have shortened in except for Gulbis which went to 1.80ish which concerns me. Copil was lucky AF he made it through the main draw. Came in as a Lucky Loser and didn't look convincing in any of his qualifying matches. So will see how it unfolds.
                                            Comment
                                            • Jeff_Black
                                              SBR MVP
                                              • 04-04-15
                                              • 3571

                                              #162
                                              80 - 73 - 8 (+36.965u)

                                              Incredibly happy at how that all panned out. Think Griekspoor @ 9.63 has been the biggest SU dog I have cashed in on here. Thought it was good to cash in Pouille at 5s at the the AO and didn't think I'd get one close to that heh. He shortened by about a dollar so Im not sure how much he shortened by when it closed but as always no way should anyone who isn't reliable be that short. Anyway moving on to tommorow's slate of games.

                                              ATP Rotterdam 500, Men's Singles, R1
                                              Martin Klizan vs Marton Fuscovics
                                              Moneyline: Marton Fuscovics, 2.19 on Pinnacle
                                              Stake: 1u play

                                              ATP Rotterdam 500, Men's Singles, R1
                                              Daniil Medvedev vs Jeremy Chardy
                                              Handicap: Jeremy Chardy +3.5, 1.877 on Pinnacle
                                              Moneyline: Jeremy Chardy, 3.94 on Pinnacle
                                              Stake: 1u & 0.5u plays

                                              ATP Rotterdam 500, Men's Singles, R2
                                              Gael Monfils vs Andreas Seppi
                                              Handicap: Gael Monfils -3, 1.847 on Pinnacle
                                              Stake: 1u play

                                              ATP Rotterdam 500, Men's Singles, R1
                                              Milos Raonic vs Stan Wawrinka
                                              Handicap: Stan Wawrinka +2, 2.01 on Pinnacle
                                              Moneyline: Stan Wawrinka, 2.86 on Pinnacle
                                              Stake: 1u & 0.5u plays

                                              ATP Rotterdam 500, Men's Singles, R2
                                              Tomas Berdych vs Denis Shapovalov
                                              Handicap: Tomas Berdych -2, 1.943 on Pinnacle
                                              Stake: 1u play

                                              Hopefully be a bit more consistent this time around.
                                              Comment
                                              • Poisec
                                                SBR MVP
                                                • 07-22-18
                                                • 1215

                                                #163
                                                Originally posted by Jeff_Black
                                                74 - 73 - 8 (+25.99u)

                                                ATP Rotterdam 500, Men's Singles, R1
                                                Marius Copil vs Ernests Gulbis
                                                Moneyline: Ernests Gulbis, 1.719 on Pinnacle
                                                Stake: 2u play

                                                ATP Rotterdam 500, Men's Singles, R1
                                                Milos Raonic vs Philipp Kohlscrieber
                                                Total Score: Over 22.5 Games, 1.862 on Pinnacle
                                                Stake: 1u play

                                                ATP Rotterdam 500, Men's Singles, R1
                                                Fernando Verdasco vs Matthew Ebden
                                                Handicap: Fernando Verdasco -3.5, 1.847 on Pinnacle
                                                Stake: 1u play

                                                ATP Rotterdam 500, Men's Singles, R1
                                                Gilles Simon vs Tomas Berdych
                                                Handicap: Tomas Berdych -2.5, 1.925 on Pinnacle
                                                Stake: 2u play

                                                ATP Rotterdam 500, Men's Singles, R1
                                                Tallon Griekspoor vs Karen Khachanov
                                                Handicap: Tallon Griekspoor +5, 1.775 on Pinnacle
                                                Moneyline: Tallon Griekspoor, 9.63 on Pinnacle
                                                Stake: 1.5u and 0.5u plays
                                                Quality stuff.
                                                Comment
                                                • Jeff_Black
                                                  SBR MVP
                                                  • 04-04-15
                                                  • 3571

                                                  #164
                                                  Originally posted by Poisec
                                                  Quality stuff.
                                                  Thanks for stopping by!

                                                  84 - 76 - 8 (+38.442u)

                                                  Ugh, knew some of those odds were too good to be true. Although I can live with Chardy losing because he put up a good fight, and had a set point or so in that first set as well as serving for that first set before going all French and losing the whole match altogether.

                                                  Not really a great day for outrights as a few got wiped out. Tomic was a pipe dream who did have set points against Isner and McDonald/Harrison got wiped out too after winning the first set. The worst way to lose lol.

                                                  That said I don't mind the top half of the draw for Stan. Got Shapovalov next who can be tricky but I think he can beat him. Nishikori is no lock to win his matches either so if he has to play him I think he can beat him, I mean he did beat Raonic after all? heh.
                                                  The bottom half is pretty good if you've backed Monfils/Tsonga.

                                                  New York isn't a tough draw either. But we'll see. He has to beat quite a few big servers to make it to the final but he made the Final last year so some motivation to defend points will be there.
                                                  Comment
                                                  • Jeff_Black
                                                    SBR MVP
                                                    • 04-04-15
                                                    • 3571

                                                    #165
                                                    ATP Rotterdam 500, Men's Singles, R2
                                                    Daniil Medvedev vs Fernando Verdasco
                                                    Handicap: Fernando Verdasco +3.5, 1.917 on Pinnacle
                                                    Moneyline: Fernando Verdasco, 3.56 on Pinnacle
                                                    Stake: 1u & 0.5u plays

                                                    ATP Rotterdam 500, Men's Singles, R2
                                                    Marton Fucscovics vs Nikoloz Basilashvili
                                                    Handicap: Marton Fuscovics -1, 1.952 on Pinnacle
                                                    Stake: 1u play

                                                    ATP Rotterdam 500, Men's Singles, R2
                                                    Kei Nishikori vs Ernests Gulbis
                                                    Handicap: Ernests Gulbis +3.5, 1.98 on Pinnacle
                                                    Moneyline: Ernests Gulbis, 3.90 on Pinnacle
                                                    Stake: 1u & 0.5u plays
                                                    Comment
                                                    • nuxx??
                                                      SBR Sharp
                                                      • 06-06-17
                                                      • 473

                                                      #166
                                                      I gotta ask, why do you keep fading Medvedev?
                                                      Comment
                                                      • Jeff_Black
                                                        SBR MVP
                                                        • 04-04-15
                                                        • 3571

                                                        #167
                                                        Originally posted by nuxx??
                                                        I gotta ask, why do you keep fading Medvedev?
                                                        Saw a potential for a letdown after his title run in Sofia. I get so far his year has been pretty good, but Sofia didn't exactly have the toughest draw, only really beat Monfils that could be considered a challenge. Nothing against him, he can just be a bit flaky at times as we saw in the matches he lost.
                                                        Rotterdam's draw is a bit tougher. I thought Chardy had some nice enough form and strong serving going into the match, and he was going toe to toe with him and even served for the set (having set points) before being French and getting broken and falling apart from there. Verdasco was more regretable in hindsight but I thought the lefty matchup might throw him off a bit. Problem with that was Verdasco's serving numbers were not good and he was hitting low-mid 50s in percentage for first serve's in and points won off serve. And from that I thought the odds/lines were good for those guys to fade him.

                                                        That said he's playing Tsonga next, who has been just as good, and is an underdog...so I might have to fade him again :P
                                                        Comment
                                                        • Jeff_Black
                                                          SBR MVP
                                                          • 04-04-15
                                                          • 3571

                                                          #168
                                                          85 - 80 - 8 (+35.394u)

                                                          ATP Rotterdam 500, Men's Singles, QF
                                                          Gael Monfils vs Damir Dzumhur
                                                          Handicap: Damir Dzumhur +4, 1.847 on Pinnacle
                                                          Stake: 2u play

                                                          ATP Rotterdam 500, Men's Singles, QF
                                                          Daniil Medvedev vs Jo Wilfried Tsonga
                                                          Moneyline: Jo Wilfried Tsonga, 2.30 on Pinnacle
                                                          Stake: 2u play

                                                          ATP Rotterdam 500, Men's Singles, QF
                                                          Stan Wawrinka vs Denis Shapovalov
                                                          Handicap: Stan Wawrinka -1.5, 1.952 on Pinnacle
                                                          Stake: 2u play

                                                          ATP Rotterdam 500, Men's Singles, QF
                                                          Kei Nishikori vs Marton Fuscovics
                                                          Handicap: Marton Fuscovics +4, 2.12 on Pinnacle
                                                          Stake: 2u play
                                                          Comment
                                                          • nuxx??
                                                            SBR Sharp
                                                            • 06-06-17
                                                            • 473

                                                            #169
                                                            Medvedev is an indoor player, if you watched his match against Djokovic in AO, he's the only person who troubled Djokovic in his entire title run (they played indoors because of heat rule) and who legitimately took set off of djokovic (losing set to Shapo was a fluke). He's not flaky anymore, he fixed his nerves and he's much more stable mentally than he was last year.

                                                            Also what do you mean his draw in sofia was easy? Klizan is a pretty solid indoor player, won rotterdam couple years back, monfils aswell. I guess you could say fucsovic isn't but he's still playing in a decent form. I'd have to say Medvedevs run at Sofia had tougher draw than Tsongas run in MOTP. Also out of the two, Medvedev could be the fresher one considering Tsongas age. Good luck with your pick tho, i think Medvedev line is completely missed here by the books.
                                                            Comment
                                                            • DavidGoliath5003
                                                              SBR MVP
                                                              • 03-20-18
                                                              • 4100

                                                              #170
                                                              The slow hardcourt in Rotterdamn favors the base lline returner. Unless Medvedev is tired he should beat Tsonga in 2 sets. Big servers like Raonic, Berdych, Gulbis, Copil all suffered bad losses.
                                                              Comment
                                                              • Jeff_Black
                                                                SBR MVP
                                                                • 04-04-15
                                                                • 3571

                                                                #171
                                                                86 - 83 - 8 (+31.298u)

                                                                Yeah Tsonga didn’t live up to the bill today. Got outplayed in most aspects and wasn’t good enough. Doesn’t matter what I say now I guess.

                                                                Interesting odds for the SF though.

                                                                ATP Rotterdam, Men’s Singles, SF
                                                                Gael Monfils vs Daniel Medvedev
                                                                Money line: Gael Monfils @ 3.06 on Pinnacle
                                                                Handicap: Gael Monfils +3, 1.943 on Pinnacle
                                                                Stake: 1u and 2u

                                                                ATP Rotterdam, Men’s Singles, SF
                                                                Kei Nishikori vs Stan Wawrinka
                                                                Money line: Stan Wawrinka @ 2.56 on Pinnacle
                                                                Set Handicap: Stan Wawrinka -1.5 Sets, 4.39 on Pinnacle
                                                                Handicap: Stan Wawrinka +2.5, 1.917 on Pinnacle
                                                                Stake: 1u, 1u and 2u
                                                                Comment
                                                                • DavidGoliath5003
                                                                  SBR MVP
                                                                  • 03-20-18
                                                                  • 4100

                                                                  #172
                                                                  Originally posted by Jeff_Black
                                                                  86 - 83 - 8 (+31.298u)

                                                                  Yeah Tsonga didn’t live up to the bill today. Got outplayed in most aspects and wasn’t good enough. Doesn’t matter what I say now I guess.

                                                                  Interesting odds for the SF though.

                                                                  ATP Rotterdam, Men’s Singles, SF
                                                                  Gael Monfils vs Daniel Medvedev
                                                                  Money line: Gael Monfils @ 3.06 on Pinnacle
                                                                  Handicap: Gael Monfils +3, 1.943 on Pinnacle
                                                                  Stake: 1u and 2u

                                                                  ATP Rotterdam, Men’s Singles, SF
                                                                  Kei Nishikori vs Stan Wawrinka
                                                                  Money line: Stan Wawrinka @ 2.56 on Pinnacle
                                                                  Set Handicap: Stan Wawrinka -1.5 Sets, 4.39 on Pinnacle
                                                                  Handicap: Stan Wawrinka +2.5, 1.917 on Pinnacle
                                                                  Stake: 1u, 1u and 2u
                                                                  Bounce back bud. Good luck.
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • nuxx??
                                                                    SBR Sharp
                                                                    • 06-06-17
                                                                    • 473

                                                                    #173
                                                                    And once again you're fading Medvedev against a player he just shitstomped a week ago. Monfils was showing signs of tiredness on serveral occasions this entire tourney. They both played same amount of matches, but the fact is, Medvedev is 10 years younger and is going to grind down Monfils. Medvedev made a HUGE leap this year considering his mental tougness, and is basically becoming Djokovic with a playstyle of Cilic.

                                                                    Agree on Wawa though. GL.
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • DavidGoliath5003
                                                                      SBR MVP
                                                                      • 03-20-18
                                                                      • 4100

                                                                      #174
                                                                      Originally posted by nuxx??
                                                                      And once again you're fading Medvedev against a player he just shitstomped a week ago. Monfils was showing signs of tiredness on serveral occasions this entire tourney. They both played same amount of matches, but the fact is, Medvedev is 10 years younger and is going to grind down Monfils. Medvedev made a HUGE leap this year considering his mental tougness, and is basically becoming Djokovic with a playstyle of Cilic.

                                                                      Agree on Wawa though. GL.
                                                                      Yeah i thought Monfis looked Tired vs Goffin... Goffin was just a bit off.
                                                                      Comment
                                                                      • Conqueror
                                                                        SBR Posting Legend
                                                                        • 12-08-13
                                                                        • 16777

                                                                        #175
                                                                        Medvedev is hard to fade in the indoors.
                                                                        Will definitely tail your Wawa pick.
                                                                        Comment
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