2019 Tennis Season - Picks and Analysis

[Jeff_Black]

This week I will be focusing on the tournament in Marrakech, it is an ATP 250 event. As much as I like the Houston field it's a fair flight to Monte Carlo for many of them if they win a few matches so rather take this one where I feel the field will be more motivated in their match practice to win matches.

ATP Marrakech 250, Mens Singles, R1
Albert Ramos Vinolas vs Guido Andreozzi
Handicap: Albert Ramos Vinolas -2.5, 1.90 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

ATP Marrakech 250, Mens Singles, R1
Taro Daniel vs Mischa Zverev
Set Handicap: Taro Daniel -1.5 Sets, 2.10 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

ATP Marrakech 250, Mens Singles, R1
Kyle Edmund vs Ugo Humbert
Handicap: Ugo Humbert +4.5, 1.869 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

[Jeff_Black]

178 - 174 - 14 (+55.218u)

ATP Marrakech 250, Mens Singles, R1
Aljaz Bedene vs Benoit Paire
Total Games: Over 22 Games, 1.877 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

ATP Marrakech 250, Mens Singles, R1
Thomas Fabbiano vs Pierre Hueges Herbert
Moneyline: Thomas Fabbiano, 2.429 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

ATP Marrakech 250, Mens Singles, R1
Federico Debonis vs Pablo Andujar
Moneyline: Pablo Andujar, 2.42 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play


ATP Marrakech 250, Mens Singles, R1
Facundo Bagnis vs Jaume Munar
Handicap: Facundo Bagnis +3.5 Games, 2.05 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

[Gaze73]

Why was Delbo fav today? Won only 4/10, Andujar Won 10/10 and H2H goes from 0-5 to 0-6 today. Sometimes I wonder why the market doesn't go for the obvious choice. Another one that mystifies me today is Sharma, she's in peak form against some rank 500 trash but the market thinks she should be the dog.

[DavidGoliath5003]

Why was Delbo fav today? Won only 4/10, Andujar Won 10/10 and H2H goes from 0-5 to 0-6 today. Sometimes I wonder why the market doesn't go for the obvious choice. Another one that mystifies me today is Sharma, she's in peak form against some rank 500 trash but the market thinks she should be the dog.

The books needed a miracle to win... Delbonis had 4 or 5 set points to win. I had Andujar 1st set, lucky to win. Had he lost set 1 i doubt he would have had the energy to comeback

[Gaze73]

Sharma wins without breaking a sweat, the market must be effin nuts to bet against her all day. Easiest money ever.

[DavidGoliath5003]

Sharma wins without breaking a sweat, the market must be effin nuts to bet against her all day. Easiest money ever.

Those are tough matches... Rogers is coming off a long term injury... shes miles better than Sharma when they are both 100%

[Gaze73]

She just choked 6 out of 7 games after my post, are you kidding me.

[DavidGoliath5003]

She just choked 6 out of 7 games after my post, are you kidding me.

Sorry bruh. Just know Rogers is top 50 when healthy

[Jeff_Black]

180 - 176 - 14 (+55.515u)

ATP Marrakech 250, Mens Singles, R2
Taro Daniel vs Adrian Menendez-Macerias
Set Handicap: Taro Daniel -1.5 Sets, 2.10 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

ATP Marrakech 250, Mens Singles, R2
Kyle Edmund vs Jo Wilfried Tsonga
Handicap: Jo Wilfried Tsonga +2.5, 2.02 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

[Conqueror]

Did the son of Daniel fall asleep in the 2nd set?
BOL with Tsonga.

[Jeff_Black]

Did the son of Daniel fall asleep in the 2nd set?BOL with Tsonga.

Was really surprised with the odds of that game actually, no way does Edmund ever deserve to be that heavily favoured. Kinda annoying because I figured Taro would cover the line anyway so went with the extra juice, didn't pay off this time...

181 - 177 - 14 (+55.535u)

ATP Marrakech 250, Mens Singles, R2
Benoit Paire vs Pierre-Hugues Herbert
Handicap: Benoit Paire -1.5, 1.943 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

ATP Marrakech 250, Mens Singles, R2
Philipp Kohlscrieber vs Pablo Andujar
Moneyline: Pablo Andujar, 2.139 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

ATP Marrakech 250, Mens Singles, R2
Alexander Zverev vs Jaume Munar
Handicap: Jaume Munar +4, 1.97 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

[Gaze73]

I am on Munar also, he might even win if Zverev doesn't care.

[Jeff_Black]

Yeah a few of the top seeds Fognini (2), Djere (5), Verdasco (6) and Edmund (3) in the 2R have already bombed out. A guy like Benoit Paire can go on a run for all we know lol. Tsonga I thought wasn't a bad one to take because he'll need the match practice in comparison to other guys as he sat out Indian Wells etc and will want to have a nice tilt on clay this year to get his ranking back up.

Seems like the market is reacting too, Munar slightly shortening. Think there is a bit of value on Londero as well but would want better odds as Vesely is okay on clay.

[Jeff_Black]

I was looking over the Houston draw and highlights from overnight and there was one matchup that caught my eye. And I will add it in as a play...win or lose i'll live with it. I was actually hoping the odds would be better for the player I want to back here but the odds at present will have to do. I think they should be much closer but they are a bit based off reputation at the moment...In fact I feel like the wrong player is favoured.

ATP Houston 250, Mens Singles, R2
Janko Tipsarevic vs Cameron Norrie
Moneyline: Janko Tipsarevic, 2.33 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

Guy was actually playing some good matches and was a bit unlucky he couldn't beat Bautista in Indian Wells, but for a guy who's been riddled with injuries I don't feel like they have a lot of confidence in Norrie to get the job done and that's not surprising as Norrie is far from a known clay courter and hasn't won a match to date in 2019 on clay, as well as playing on it the least in comparison to his preferred hard courts and grass. Tipsarevic plays (has played) plenty of matches on clay and his style suits clay, he can slide on it and I'm not too worried about the injuries slowing him down as he has the shot making to do it. Since he's been slowed down a bit he can be flaky on serve but I don't think anyone in their right mind who follows tennis/tennis players would trust Cameron Norrie to win with the odds offered at present.

I actually remember one of the very first posts I made here was Tipsarevic to win his match at Houston (odds were closer) but I felt he could do it against a player he was clearly better then and similar circumstances he was coming back from an injury and in actual fact from memory it was his first match back from injury. He won a very ugly three set game and the last set was a tiebreaker but I think it was the relief and confidence to get that first win that got him there.

Whilst he is no lock to win (Nothing ever is) Norrie is far from a lock either, so I can justify the extra juice on the h2h. I know this is a weirdly long write up for a game probably not many people will focus on, and I know it's weird for me to pick a game early on in another tournament but it's a rare occasion where it's something I've seen a many times so I feel confident in it.

My Paire/Bedene overs pick is a similar story just without the unnecessarily long detail

[Jeff_Black]

ATP Houston 250, Men’s Singles, R2
Santiago Giraldo vs Jordan Thompson
Moneyline: Santiago Giraldo, 2.47 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

Thompson should never be so short on clay against anyone let alone a guy who loves playing on clay and in North/South America.

[Gaze73]

ATP Houston 250, Men’s Singles, R2
Santiago Giraldo vs Jordan Thompson
Moneyline: Santiago Giraldo, 2.47 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

Thompson should never be so short on clay against anyone let alone a guy who loves playing on clay and in North/South America.

Thompson is 73/37 on clay, certainly not the worst when there are people with sub 50% win rate like Tomic. Still, it was a bad beat, I was on him too @2.75.

[Jeff_Black]

185 - 178 - 14 (+58.917u)

ATP Marrakech 250, Men’s Singles, QF
Jo Wilfried Tsonga vs Pablo Andujar
Handicap: Pablo Andujar -1, 1.917 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

ATP Marrakech 250, Men’s Singles, QF
Benoit Paire vs Jaime Munar
Moneyline: Benoit Paire, 2.44 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

ATP Marrakech 250, Men’s Singles, QF
Jo Wilfried Tsonga vs Lorenzo Sonego
Handicap: Jo Wilfried Tsonga -3, 1.917 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

[Jeff_Black]

ATP Houston 250, Men’s Singles, QF
Sam Querrey vs Janko Tipsarevic
Moneyline: Janko Tipsarevic, 2.91 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

ATP Houston 250, Men’s Singles, QF
Jordan Thompson vs Daniel Elahi Galan
Moneyline: Daniel Elahi Galan, 2.24 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

[Jeff_Black]

Thompson is 73/37 on clay, certainly not the worst when there are people with sub 50% win rate like Tomic. Still, it was a bad beat, I was on him too @2.75.

3-5 on the main tour which is probably more of an accurate reflection of his record on clay with many being on challengers Futures events. Other then that playing like most of the Australians on clay who can’t slide on it or play drop/slice shots and handle the grind of a slower surface etc.
But he tries on it which is different to Tomic who I’ve never really seen try on this surface which is also reflecting in his record there too.

[DavidGoliath5003]

Go Tsonga

[Capybara]

Jeff, you're crushing it.

[Jeff_Black]

187 - 179 - 15 (+60.274u)

ATP Marrakech 250, Men’s Singles, SF
Benoit Paire vs Jo Wilfried Tsonga
Moneyline: Benoit Paire, 3.25 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

ATP Marrakech 250, Men’s Singles, SF
Pablo Andujar vs Gilles Simon
Moneyline: Pablo Andujar, 2.20 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

[Gaze73]

Why only 1u plays lately? I put 4 on Andujar, he's such a machine and the bookies still don't respect him.

[Capybara]

Absolutely en fuego in here.

[Jeff_Black]

Why only 1u plays lately? I put 4 on Andujar, he's such a machine and the bookies still don't respect him.

No really my intention to have a big week but it was nice spot to take advantage of the value in a minnow tournament and it seems like Houston was similar.
Could have just as easily gotten things wrong and that hurts the $$$ more then anything.

Anyway I am passing on both Finals and looking at the Monte Carlo matches today.

190 - 179 - 15 (+64.964u)

[leetreaper]

Jeff, you're crushing it.

You remind me of Krit.

[Jeff_Black]

ATP Monte Carlo Masters 1000, Men’s Singles, Qualifiers
Alexei Popyrin vs Elias Ymer
Moneyline: Alexei Popyrin, 2.42 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

ATP Monte Carlo Masters 1000, Men’s Singles, Qualifiers
Aljaz Bedene vs Taro Daniel
Moneyline: Taro Daniel, 2.33 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

[Jeff_Black]

ATP Monte Carlo Masters 1000, Men’s Singles, R1
Borna Coric vs Hubert Hurkacz
Handicap: Borna Coric -3, 2.02 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

ATP Monte Carlo Masters 1000, Men’s Singles, R1
Laslo Djere vs Guido Pella
Moneyline: Laslo Djere, 2.29 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

ATP Monte Carlo Masters 1000, Men’s Singles, R1
Mattel Berreteni vs Grigor Dimitrov
Moneyline: Mateo Berreteni, 2.20 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

[gorwin068]

Jeff, any picks today?

[Capybara]

You remind me of Krit.

Leet, we're old school. You know me, son.

[Jeff_Black]

191 - 183 -15 (+62.384u)

ATP Monte Carlo Masters 1000, Men’s Singles, QF
Borna Coric vs Fabio Fognini
Moneyline: Fabio Fognini, 2.18 on Pinnacle
Stake: 2u play

[Grivas_Digeni]

191 - 183 -15 (+62.384u)

ATP Monte Carlo Masters 1000, Men’s Singles, QF
Borna Coric vs Fabio Fognini
Moneyline: Fabio Fognini, 2.18 on Pinnacle
Stake: 2u play

Fabio is the Anti-Zverev. Balls the size of Lombardia.

[Jeff_Black]

192 - 183 - 15 (+64.744u)

ATP Monte Carlo Masters 1000, Men’s Singles, SF
Daniil Medvedev vs Dusan Lajovic
Handicap: Dusan Lajovic +3.5, 1.909 on Pinnacle
Stake: 2u play

ATP Monte Carlo Masters 1000, Men’s Singles, SF
Rafael Nadal vs Fabio Fognini
Handicap: Fabio Fognini +6, 2.00 on Pinnacle
Stake: 2u play

[gorwin068]

192 - 183 - 15 (+64.744u)

ATP Monte Carlo Masters 1000, Men’s Singles, SF
Daniil Medvedev vs Dusan Lajovic
Handicap: Dusan Lajovic +3.5, 1.909 on Pinnacle
Stake: 2u play

ATP Monte Carlo Masters 1000, Men’s Singles, SF
Rafael Nadal vs Fabio Fognini
Handicap: Fabio Fognini +6, 2.00 on Pinnacle
Stake: 2u play

Well play

[Jeff_Black]

Thanks. ATP 500 event Barcelona will be my main event of focus for next weeks tennis betting...

194 - 183 - 15 (+69.562u)

ATP Barcelona 500, Men’s Singles, Qualifiers
Nicolas Jarry vs Marcel Granollers
Moneyline: Nicolas Jarry, 1.90 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

ATP Barcelona 500, Men’s Singles, Qualifiers
Albert Ramos Vinolas vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
Moneyline: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina, 2.52 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

ATP Barcelona 500, Men’s Singles, Qualifiers
Diego Sebastian Schwartzman vs Roberto Cabellas Baena
Handicap: Diego Sebastian Schwartzman -2.5, 1.952 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play