2019 Tennis Season - Picks and Analysis

[Jeff_Black]

304 - 297 - 23 (55.949u)

ATP Umag 250, Mens Singles, R1
Marco Cecchinato vs Aljaz Bedene
Handicap: Aljaz Bedene -1.5, 1.943 on Pinnacle
Stake: 2u play

ATP Umag 250, Mens Singles, R1
Salvatore Caruso vs Tommy Robredo
Handicap: Tommy Robredo -1, 2.00 on Pinnacle
Stake: 2u play

[Jeff_Black]

ATP Newport 250, Mens Singles, R1
Bernard Tomic vs Illya Ivashka
Moneyline: Illya Ivashka, 3.00 on Pinnacle
Stake: 3u play

Umag is the draw I am leaning towards the most as I prefer the field there, but I can't go past an opportunity to fade Tankin' Tomic here. I personally thought the stories surrounding him not giving his best effort were a bit overblown but after seeing his efforts in Winnipeg losing to a player ranked in the 300s who has barely played on the main tour I don't think there is any odds for him as a favourite that can be considered 'too short'. He has lost to players outside the top 100 in his grass court events outside of Wimbledon and this is just one of those times where you just fade the player lacking any sort of motivation or confidence.

[Conqueror]

Congrats on Ivashka.

Can't believe Robredo goes up 3-0 in the 3rd set then Caruso manufactures a 6-0 run to win the game. Thought that could only happen in the WTA.

[DavidGoliath5003]

Congrats on Ivashka.

Can't believe Robredo goes up 3-0 in the 3rd set then Caruso manufactures a 6-0 run to win the game. Thought that could only happen in the WTA.

Caruso is an endurance grinder. im guessing Robredo just ran out of gas.

[Maizey]

304 - 297 - 23 (55.949u)

ATP Umag 250, Mens Singles, R1
Marco Cecchinato vs Aljaz Bedene
Handicap: Aljaz Bedene -1.5, 1.943 on Pinnacle
Stake: 2u play

The announcers said that Bedene is now 7-0 lifetime against Cecchinato, all in straight sets. That's some serious head-to-head history.

[Jeff_Black]

Congrats on Ivashka.

Thanks, I think it's worth just fading him every tournament unless he comes up against a real scrubby scrub. If he is forced to qualify for the US Open I think if the odds are good we just back him there because he will want the prize money and it's probably easier that way.

The announcers said that Bedene is now 7-0 lifetime against Cecchinato, all in straight sets. That's some serious head-to-head history.

Cecchinato has also probably been a bit overrated because of his French Open run 18 months ago. Bedene has always been a pretty handy clay court player

[Jeff_Black]

306 - 298 - 23 (61.835u)

ATP Umag 250, Mens Singles, R1
Attila Balazs vs Viktor Galovic
Moneyline: Viktor Galovic, 3.74 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

ATP Umag 250, Mens Singles, R1
Pablo Andujar vs Leonard Mayer
Total Games: Over 22 Games, 1.952 on Pinnacle
Stake: 2u play

ATP Umag 250, Mens Singles, R1
Martin Klizan vs Facundo Bagnis
Total Games: Over 22 Games, 1.98 on Pinnacle
Stake: 2u play

[Jeff_Black]

307 - 300 - 23 (+60.795u)

ATP Umag 250, Mens Singles, R2
Jiri Vesely vs Leonard Mayer
Set Handicap: Leonardo Mayer -1.5 Sets, 2.52 on Pinnacle
Stake: 2u play

ATP Umag 250, Mens Singles, R2
Dusan Lajovic vs Andrey Rublev
Moneyline: Dusan Lajovic, 2.13 on Pinnacle
Stake: 2u play

ATP Umag 250, Mens Singles, R2
Fabio Fognini vs Stefano Travaglia
Moneyline: Stefano Travaglia, 3.37 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

I am happy enough with the odds on offer to take the upset here, I was happy with Travaglia's form in R1 and it is also worth noting that Fognini is expected to play in Hamburg on Indoor Clay where he has excelled going 4-0 on in 2019. So I wouldn't look too much into him being the top seed here and expectations of that that come with it. I think the odds are set that way for a reason so will be interesting to see where his motivation at after the controversies with Wimbledon.

[Dynasty3669]

Lajovic’s match is Thursday.

[Jeff_Black]

Yeah there is not a lot of games to choose from today, four in Singles, the bulk in doubles.

[Jeff_Black]

308 - 301 - 23 (+60.165u)

ATP Umag 250, Mens Singles, R2
Aljaz Bedene vs Jannik Sinner
Total Games: Over 21 Games, 1.934 on Pinnacle
Stake: 2u play

ATP Umag 250, Mens Singles, R2
Salvatore Caruso vs Borna Coric
Moneyline: Salvatore Carusco, 3.41 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

I was tossing between the over or the line here but I think there is enough value with the odds on present to take the underdog here. Coric is playing in his first tournament since withdrawing from Wimbledon with injury so I'm not sure where his level is at but I have liked what I have seen from Carusco in his clay events and qualifying so far. And even though his French Open match against Djokovic looked one sided he did fight hard for his points and made some nice shots despite being outclassed by the World No #1. The italians also seem to like playing on this particular surface with Fognini and Cecchinato being recent tournament winners.
Even playing at home I don't know how much Coric will take out of this, may be to just get some matches under his belt before playing elsewhere, on a surface that he has had a disappointing 3-4 mark on in 2019.
In this position last year he played in Sweden losing in Round 1 to Laslo Djere before heading to the States for the 2nd part of the Canada/US Masters swing so I think it's not a bad spot to take the underdog.
He will no doubt want to do better then his R32 performances there and also has a R16 performance at the US Open to defend.

Can see him dropping this game. But we'll see.

[Jeff_Black]

I was also tempted to fade Bagnis with a Croatian playing at home but I don't think their levels are quite on par. There is no value taking Bagnis at that price but I would rather take Serdarusic at better odds then I'm getting for Carusco and he's shortened overnight to being within 3.00/+200 so it'll be a pass for me at the moment.

[Conqueror]

JB,

I'm so intrigued by those plays because they involve players that are steadily climbing the ladder. Sinner has cashed many tickets as a huge underdog. As for Caruso, he won me over after I lost 2 bets on live-betting fading him - thinking the opponent would eventually crush him.
To be honest with you, Sinner +4 is one of my non-posted plays. I'm glad you're on the OVER.
I'll gladly tail you on Caruso.

[Jeff_Black]

Yeah I think the price might be a tad of an overreaction for taking out the defending champ so I don't mind taking the over there. Sinner should still be pretty handy on clay for what he has done so far.

Coric's odds were similar to Fognini, which to me isn't a big show of faith. Should be an interesting matchup.

[Jeff_Black]

311 - 301 - 23 (+66.673u)

ATP Umag 250, Mens Singles, QF
Stefano Travaglia vs Attila Balazs
Handicap: Stefano Travaglia -1.5, 2.12 on Pinnacle
Stake: 2u play

ATP Umag 250, Mens Singles, QF
Laslo Djere vs Leonard Mayer
Handicap: Laslo Djere -1, 2.00 on Pinnacle
Stake: 2u play

[Jeff_Black]

ATP Umag 250, Mens Singles, QF
Dusan Lajovic vs Aljaz Bedene
Handicap: Dusan Lajovic -1, 2.01 on Pinnacle
Stake: 2u play

[Dynasty3669]

Jeff, any thoughts on Bagnis over Caruso today?

[Jeff_Black]

Nah, didn’t have any sort of opinion on that one so I passed on it.

[Jeff_Black]

313 - 302 - 23 (+68.913u)

ATP Umag 250, Mens Singles, SF
Attila Balazs vs Laslo Djere
Handicap: Laslo Djere -3, 1.952 on Pinnacle
Stake: 2u play

ATP Umag 250, Mens Singles, SF
Salvatore Carusco vs Dusan Lajovic
Set Handicap: Dusan Lajovic -1.5 Sets, 2.33 on Pinnacle
Stake: 2u play

[Jeff_Black]

313 - 303 - 23 (+66.913u)

I am going to go with Hamburg this week. The draws this week in general are okay but I think i'll go with the bigger tournament as plenty of those guys will be motivated to get points and prizemoney. I will also poke a few plays at Atlanta. Want to follow the US hard court tournaments to see how players will measure up, and plenty not having played in a while as well. Plus the draw is intriguing and I see some potential value with the right match ups.

[Jeff_Black]

ATP Hamburg 500, Mens Singles, R1
Philipp Kohlscriebber vs Marton Fuscovics
Handicap: Philipp Kohlscriebber -1.5, 1.917 on Pinnacle
Stake: 2u play

ATP Hamburg 500, Mens Singles, R1
Benoit Paire vs Jeremy Chardy
Handicap: Benoit Paire -1, 1.943 on Pinnacle
Stake: 2u play

ATP Hamburg 500, Mens Singles, R1
Leonardo Mayer vs Rudolph Molleker
Set Handicap: Leonardo Mayer -1.5 Sets, 2.09 on Pinnacle
Stake: 2u play

[Jeff_Black]

Atlanta schedule has been released on the ATP site so looking at one of the matchups I had my eye on was playing today so i'll just do that one on it for now...

Atlanta 250, Mens Singles, R1
Alexei Popyrin vs Denis Kudla
Moneyline: Denis Kudla, 2.20 on Pinnacle
Stake: 2u play

[Jeff_Black]

313 - 307 - 23 (+58.913u)

ATP Hamburg 500, Mens Singles, R1
Fabio Fognini vs Julian Lenz
Moneyline: Julian Lenz, 3.45 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

I think it's worth fading Fabio again, clearly didn't give a crap in his match in Umag and in this spot last year he also lost in the 1R. He also has a defending title in Los Cabos from last year to defend next so I'm not sure how much time he will spend here. He's playing a guy who's qualified and played two matches already and I think he will be motivated to try and win this match. The odds again don't indicate a big show of faith so I'm happy to ride this one out too.

ATP Hamburg 500, Mens Singles, R1
Thiago Moura Monteiro vs Jan-Lennard Struff
Handicap: Jan Lennard Struff -2, 1.952 on Pinnacle
Stake: 2u play

ATP Hamburg 500, Mens Singles, R1
Laslo Djere vs Filip Krajinovic
Moneyline: Laslo Djere, 2.15 on Pinnacle
Stake: 2u play

ATP Hamburg 500, Mens Singles, R1
Marco Cecchinato vs Federico Delbonis
Moneyline: Marco Cecchinato, 2.70 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

ATP Hamburg 500, Mens Singles, R1
Salvatore Carusco vs Juan Ignacio Londero
Moneyline: Salvatore Carusco, 3.14 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

[DavidGoliath5003]

Jeff, Fabio was talking about trying to make the Top 8 for years end tourney today.

[Jeff_Black]

Hmmm tough ask and Fognini will go 0-3 in London anyway heh. I can see Nishikori doing well enough to make it, which leaves a few other spots for guys like Zverev and Bautista to compete for. Both capable of winning titles in smaller tournaments. Interesting race at the moment.

[The Expert]

Fognini shows up here I suppose, I'm on him in straight sets. By the way Caruso withdrew.

[Jeff_Black]

Yeah figured he wouldn't be bothered after making it deep last week.

ATP Atlanta 250, Mens Singles, R1
Francis Tiafoe vs Bernard Tomic
Set Handicap: Francis Tiafoe -1.5 Sets, 2.00 on Pinnacle
Stake: 5u play

[Jeff_Black]

For anyone betting on Alize Cornet's match she is raging on Twitter that her airline has misplaced some of her luggage including her racquets and it's gone missing as of half an hour ago. I mean there is still time to find them but the stress and not being able to practice could be tough and not ideal preparation.
So maybe hedge out with the other side? lol

[DavidGoliath5003]

For anyone betting on Alize Cornet's match she is raging on Twitter that her airline has misplaced some of her luggage including her racquets and it's gone missing as of half an hour ago. I mean there is still time to find them but the stress and not being able to practice could be tough and not ideal preparation.
So maybe hedge out with the other side? lol

Thanks for the heads up, Jeff

[fademe101]

Yeah figured he wouldn't be bothered after making it deep last week.

ATP Atlanta 250, Mens Singles, R1
Francis Tiafoe vs Bernard Tomic
Set Handicap: Francis Tiafoe -1.5 Sets, 2.00 on Pinnacle
Stake: 5u play

Wow a 5 unit play on a Tomic match.. don’t think I can bring myself to bet on any match that guy is part of

[Jeff_Black]

314 - 311 - 24 (+49.817u)

ATP Hamburg 500, Mens Singles, R2
Richard Gasquet vs Jeremy Chardy
Moneyline: Richard Gasquet, 2.06 on Pinnacle
Stake: 2u play

ATP Hamburg 500, Mens Singles, R2
Casper Ruud vs Andrey Rublev
Moneyline: Andrey Rublev, 1.97 on Pinnacle
Stake: 2u play

[Conqueror]

Looks like Gasquet needs more match time to gain full recovery.

[DavidGoliath5003]

Looks like Gasquet needs more match time to gain full recovery.

Gasquet is done. Losing power on the backhand. Cant move as well because he fears he will tear his groin again. I give him a year tops

[Jeff_Black]

Gasquet is done. Losing power on the backhand. Cant move as well because he fears he will tear his groin again. I give him a year tops

Yup that was pretty much my observation too. May be got suckered in to the odds a bit but eh we learn don't we lol.

[Jeff_Black]

315 - 311 - 24 (+49.757u)

ATP Hamburg 500, Mens Singles, R2
Pablo Carreno Busta vs Jan Lennard Struff
Total Games: Over 22.5 Games, 1.952 on Pinnacle
Stake: 2u play

ATP Hamburg 500, Mens Singles, R2
Fabio Fognini vs Rudolph Molleker
Total Games: Over 21 Games, 1.909 on Pinnacle
Stake: 2u play