SirtySree's Rookie Player Watch + Match Analysis

[gaebiskon]

You can call me a dick or whatever for this some what bragging or show off post but meh, dont really care. Just wanted to show the profitability of what I have been doing since I made this thread. I hate to keep preaching this favourites down a set method but I want ppl to make money, hence why I even bother with these threads.

I had a shit week with bad losses as you can see from some of the above posts, plus my posts in other thread but yet I am still up quite a bit purely because of the high odds this strategy produces.

I started off with $300 on 10bet, and another $300 on WilliamHill. The $300 at WH was gone within days and I didn't re-deposit cause I like the odds on 10bet more and they offer all the matches.

These are the 3 withdraws I have made since on 10bet (after bank fees and etc):
$430.66
$586.28
$695 (pending)

Currently have $1000 in my account on 10bet so after calculating everything, I am up $2100 since this thread (roughly a month) and that is considering a some what crap run if you can believe it. My units are $100 per play 90% of the time by the way.

In comparison, as some of you may have seen from my other thread, I made $3500 in 20 days during January before getting banned from BetVictor but I would consider that a good run out of the normal.

Hopefully this post will convince a few more to try the strategy.

($100 a day profit is what I am aiming for. I will try to keep this thread going as well as post majority of my picks here and see how it goes for the rest of the year.)

Keep it up, appreciate what you're doing

[SirtySree]

Ramialison @3.5. 35/41 as favourite last year + this year.

[makman]

Ramialison @3.5. 35/41 as favourite last year + this year.

Thanks man, I was able to get it @ +163 , as soon as i saw your post. Good call

[SirtySree]

Thanks man, I was able to get it @ +163 , as soon as i saw your post. Good call

No worries, turned out to be an easy winner after a few difficult games to start the 2nd set.

Disappointed I missed out on Caregaro though. Got scared out of it as the 1st set was too lobsided for me.

[makman]

No worries, turned out to be an easy winner after a few difficult games to start the 2nd set.

Disappointed I missed out on Caregaro though. Got scared out of it as the 1st set was too lobsided for me.

i got Panfil in the first when he was down a break @-133. no big odds, but decent profit

[SirtySree]

^ Was waiting for Panfil to lose the 1st set before I went in but never ended up happening which was disappointing for me

Mertens @3.5 down a set and 1-0 on serve. Less confident in this one but still a good bet.

[SirtySree]

Pavly down 3-2 2nd set @3.25. Would take for the match but thats only @5 and I think I can get better value at some point during the 3rd set if needed.

[SirtySree]

Zhao Cai @3.75 down set and 2-1 with 40-A.

EDIT: Fak, I put money on an injured player. Hoping for a retirement now.

[SirtySree]

Jani @3.25

[makman]

Jani @3.25

Thanks. I also noticed. I took her @3.40 as a single,
also i parlayed her with Vera Lapko for a smaller wager in another. My hand is on cash out button as always
I love this cash out function in women tennis

[SirtySree]

^ Was waiting for Lapko to lose the 1st set but she somehow won it so I didn't get a bet in. Also missing out on Pereira at the moment who I was so close to taking but backed out last minute.

======================================== =====================

+$697

My pre-game analysis stuff all turned out pretty good but not tracking that as mentioned. All the matches in NZ/China Davis Cup going 5 sets so far which is what pretty much happened last year as well.

I will have a few more pre-game stuff later once lines are up but the one i see out at the moment is:
Venus @2.08 against W u
- No idea why Venus is the underdog playing at home. W u won in China last year in 5 sets could be the reason but I expect Venus to take this in 3 or 4 sets as not only is he at home but he is a much better player than last year.

[SirtySree]

Ivanovic @4 down a set and 2-1 2nd set down a break. Ivanovic 14-0 on hard court as the favourite in semifinals and finals of 2014/2015. Also 38/48 on all hard court matches as fav in 2014/2015.

[SirtySree]

Na-Ri Kim @2.5

[SirtySree]

Jasika @4.35 down a set and 1-0 0-30 2nd set down break.

[SirtySree]

+$832

Jasika with the big win. Peaked at $7 but couldn't pull the trigger yet as wasn't sure if he would turn things around and that he was having a bad game.
Kim broke in the 1st game of the 2nd set then barely won a single point after that. Not sure what happened there as it was a pretty lobsided matchup going in.

======================================== ===========

New Zealand took out China 4-1 after they decided not to play Zhang who played back to back 5 setters.

Kavcic 2-0 @3
- Zhang was too exhausted to play today after playing 10 sets in 2 days.
- Tired angle only works here because it meets a bunch of criteria and not just that he has played lots of matches. He hasn't actually played many matches but he is a challenger level player playing 5 setters which he is not use to plus the travel will be a killer.
- He is scheduled to play tomorrow but not sure if his match will be pushed back but to travel from New Zealand back to China is a long flight. If they play on scheduled time, he would be playing straight after coming off the plane if he makes it in time. He would've needed to leave within a couple of hours after the matches.
- Regarldless if he's tired or jetlagged, Kavcic is the better player despite a shaky year so far and is 2-0 H2H.

Lindell @7 against Melzer
- Probably wouldn't play the ML but maybe something like to win a set. Still on the fade Melzer train.

Ymer @2.37 against Maurer
- Not really a play but just wanted to discuss the match.
- Wished Ymer was playing after Lindell. Ymer is a big game player and has won 5th leg deciders a few times now for Sweden.
- Ymer's biggest issue was his 2nd serve and power game last year but so far this year, his 2nd serve has improved and even gave Melzer, who is a good returner trouble with it. His game has also changed quite a bit from constructing points to becoming a power hitter which has seen him have success this year on hard court.
- Could see a close 5 setter here but not sure if Ymer can take this.

More plays to come soon once odds are out. Quite a few players potentially coming out of Davis Cup into Challenger events who could be a good fade as they aren't use to 5 set matches. (eg. Samper-Montana to beat Souza who had a 5 setter and potentially another close game today. Plus Samper bet Souza early this year already).

EDIT: Kavcic has gone from 1.5 to 1.9 for some strange reason. I can't see how Zhang is favoured here apart from playing at home. Only way he has a shot here is if his match ends up being one of the later ones.

[SirtySree]

Panfil @3.75 down set and break 1-0 0-30. 34/41 using same details as above and naso 4/16 as dog plus has a very average finals record.

Hes actually @6 nw cause he didnt break and im posting late

[minnows22]

nice run Sree!! Any input on Tomic vs Rosol ??

[SirtySree]

^ sorry didnt c in time bt i thought there was nothing really worth betting there. tomic only @1.2 so cnt bet that and Rosol u wouldnt expect to beat Tomic.

========================
+$732

SamperMontana odds are dropping as expected. If you missed out, the value is some what gone now.
I made a mistake and Zhang is actually playing tomorrow so I wouldn't worry about him being tired but that being said, Kacvic is still the better player regardless.

Don't see anything else in particular. It's another new week and I love early round matches so expect a lot more favourites down a set bets today, tomorrow, and possible day after that.

[SirtySree]

Every time from now on when I list a fraction (like 23/26 below), it means that as a fav on that surface in 2014 and 2015, they hav won 23 out of 26 matches. Just easier for me then retyping it every time.

Ji-Hee Choi @3.4 - 23/26

[kenz]

I took Danny cox live @3.50 in 2nd set 2-3 thinking about your method.

Maybe I should cash-out @6.50, but I dont cash out at all

[SirtySree]

I took Danny cox live @3.50 in 2nd set 2-3 thinking about your method.

Maybe I should cash-out @6.50, but I dont cash out at all

Cox is 19/21 with my method above. I personally would've taken Cox myself but I wasn't on at the time and was at about evens when I was.

Baena just broke Cox back though. I wouldn't hedge in the current position either.

[kenz]

I think Baena has this

[makman]

Every time from now on when I list a fraction (like 23/26 below), it means that as a fav on that surface in 2014 and 2015, they hav won 23 out of 26 matches. Just easier for me then retyping it every time.

Ji-Hee Choi @3.4 - 23/26

Thanks
good call. I had him @ +300 in the second set when he was down a break. He broke back. Let's wait and see if he can comeback

[SirtySree]

I think Baena has this

Cox won 9/10 games in a row before losing the last 5 games in row unfortunately.

Even though a hedge would have been good, I still back my policy of no/minimal hedging. If you crunch the number, 90%+ winner as favourite before considering how often he actually even loses from that position would equal never in 2014/2015 I would think.
If you hedged even in just a handful of those wins of his, you wouldn't even come close to recovering the losses from this game. (EDIT: Reading that last sentence, it doesnt really make sense but I cant think of a proper way to re-word it)

That's my thinking on hedging anyways and I usually reserve it for only 2 scenarios. 1 being I really need the money and 2, I get a great hedging price without even needing my player playing the last set but that is very rare.

Thanks
good call. I had him @ +300 in the second set when he was down a break. He broke back. Let's wait and see if he can comeback

*her

Thinking if she takes the 2nd set, the 3rd set will almost be a given 90% of the time.

[makman]

*her

Thinking if she takes the 2nd set, the 3rd set will almost be a given 90% of the time.

, such a blind bet.... do not know even her sex.
at these level, unknown chinese names look similar to me, men and women

[kenz]

Hoping for Chung to lose the first

[kenz]

Sirty where can we check challenger tour stats? I think Kudravtsev may be the undisputed leader on most break points wasted. Whenever I see this guys name on left frame/live bet menu guy chokes a bp

[SirtySree]

Sirty where can we check challenger tour stats? I think Kudravtsev may be the undisputed leader on most break points wasted. Whenever I see this guys name on left frame/live bet menu guy chokes a bp

Kudry retired. He does waste quite a few at times and you can find stats of matches on tennislive.net or tennisprediction.com if you wanted details on how often they win/lose as fav/dog.

[Coolsmarti]

Hoping for Chung to lose the first

And so he did ..

[kenz]

And so he did ..

Chung ML @2.16

[kenz]

Kudry retired. He does waste quite a few at times and you can find stats of matches on tennislive.net or tennisprediction.com if you wanted details on how often they win/lose as fav/dog.

Not these stats. Guy wastes 10 bps in a set and sometimes 5 to 10 in a game. I just want to see his break points stats on challenger tour

[SirtySree]

Chung ML @2.16

Chung is 48/58 if that helps. My darn book, 10bet deciding to be a pain right now

Not these stats. Guy wastes 10 bps in a set and sometimes 5 to 10 in a game. I just want to see his break points stats on challenger tour

Don't know of any that shows for all matches together. Only know ones that show game by game.

[kenz]

Chung is 48/58 if that helps. My darn book, 10bet deciding to be a pain right now

Don't know of any that shows for all matches together. Only know ones that show game by game.

What is this 48/58?

ATP has combined stats but wish ı had challenger stats too. But I know keeping challenger record should be extremely tough

[SirtySree]

What is this 48/58?

ATP has combined stats but wish ı had challenger stats too. But I know keeping challenger record should be extremely tough

When he's the pre-game favourite, he has won 48/58 matches in 2015 and 2014 on hard court.

[Coolsmarti]

I took Chung at 2.28 ML, but I have a bad feeling .. He seems unstable ..