SirtySree's Rookie Player Watch + Match Analysis

[SirtySree]

two nights in a row i hop in on the pre-match fave at a great price after he loses a set...then my guy wins the 2nd in a TB...then rolls over in the 3rd...aaarrrggghhh!

last night Rola, tonight Tomic...an amazingly common scenario...the player fights tooth and nail to survive in the match and wins a hard-fought 2nd to tie...then plays like he's got a plane to catch...no "tooth and nail"...as if their major goal for the match was to avoid being straight-setted

Couple of issues with both these bets were that Troicki was barely a favourite and Rola was the underdog. Also you need to consider if a player actually loses up a set often and if the other player wins down a set often. Tomic barely ever loses up a set except on clay but he sucks on it. That second factor is the main change I've made from my original breakeven model to the one I use now.

When a decent sized favourite ($1.5 or under) wins the 2nd set, they win the 3rd set almost 80% of the time at least. This is especially true in womens tennis but less so in mens tennis due to the fact one break is often enough to win a set. I rarely bet on favourites down a set in ATP level tennis unless the player I am betting against is not a big server but I do not mind betting on mens challenger and future level as not many huge server there and 1 break is often not enough.

Hope this post will help you out a bit.

[SirtySree]

I will make a post later today when I have time to outline in a bit more detail how my favourite down a set system works. Not really a system but just things to watch as well as some sites to help you with odds and stats. I will also use yesterday tennis results to back it up as there were many matches yesterday.

If anyone is actually interested, let me know and il go into more detail otherwise it will just b a reletively brief post

[fitguy67]

i'm actually very fascinated with the fundamentals behind "backing the fave after dropping the first of a 3-set match"...cuz i get whip-sawed more often than not...the prouder I am about getting a great entry price on the guy forcing the deciding set=the more pissed off I am when he loses

i see your point...can't use modular % because it depends intensely on WHICH fave your talking about and against WHICH opponent who went up 1-0 u'r talking about

would appreciate what u've gleaned thus-far...as i'm still at the stage of appreciating the general potential of the approach...but still baffled by the finer-points needed to apply it...

[SirtySree]

I will go into the finer details later but there isn't much outside of what I stated above.

I will go through yesterdays matches and show you how often a favourite wins down a set as well as how often they win if they win the 2nd set.

Firstly, these matches are all pulled from the results on tennislive.net which covers every ITF, Challenger, and ATP/WTA matches played. Secondly, starting odds are all pulled from tennisprediction.com to show they were indeed the favourite pre-match.

Starting from the top of yesterday's matches listed on tennislive, I will go through every 3 set match first to show you just how often the favourite wins if they take the 2nd set. I'll list the favourites name and if they won after taking the 2nd set as well as the starting odds. If they weren't the favourite, I left it off the list.
- Da Silva lost (1.68)
- Aguilar won (1.25)
- Milojevic won (1.34)
- Kontinen won (1.28)
- Skugor lost (1.48)
- Mertl won (1.33)
- Vrljic won (1.36)
- Sezer won (1.61)
- Buzean won (1.1)
- Muguruza won (1.39)
- Vasylyeva won (1.46)
- Sasnovich won (1.16)
- Parazinskaite won (1.25)
- Terziyska won (1.59)
- Pribylova won (1.16)

Out of 15 matches, 13 favourites won after winning the 2nd set and one of thos losses were @1.68 which would be a tad high for me to consider in the first place.



Then in terms of clear favourites (1.6 for example) who failed to comeback and win were:
- Anderson (big server in ATP, wouldnt have played)
- Sillanpaa (clay courter playing on hard court, wouldnt have played)
- Basso (both clay courters playing on hard, wouldnt have played)
- Falla (could hav been a play going purely off stats bt me knowing falla i wouldnt)
- Klizan (fair loss)
- Gerald Granollers (fair loss)
- El Mihdawy (fair loss)
- Aubone (fair loss)
- Krejcikova (wouldnt hav played)
- Marino (fair loss)
- Kramperova (wouldnt hav played)
- Friedsam (fair loss)
- Jorovic (wouldnt hav played)
- Yang (fair loss)
- Hercog (wouldnt hav played)
- Vinci (fair loss)

Tallying everything, based of old method would have hit 13 winners and 18 losses which is still a sizeable profit.
Based on new method, even though its off my opinion of the matches so not 100% accurate would only have been 9 losses. That is a massive profit even just counting the odds that i played/was aware off.
Terziyska was @6.5, Sezer, @4.33, Vrljic @5, Sasnovich @3, Buzean @2, Milojevic @1.8, Mugu @2.1. Just counting half the wins, you would have had a major pay day if you managed to play them.

Keep in mind you won't be able to play every single play in a day, nor is everyday such a great day but with the large number of matches played yesterday, I think it is a good representation of how well playing favourites down a set can be.

[SirtySree]

Karine Sarkisova
- 16 yr old Russian
- First ITF tournament and has won a few matches as a big dog. Currently giving Diatchenko a hard time.

[SirtySree]

+$357

Lu @9 to win Delray Beach (half unit)
- I think this surface suits Lu's style of play completely. I also like the potential matchups that he needs to go up against to win.
- Note that I reckon u could get almost the same value betting each match seperately

Young @2.2 and 2-0 @3.5 (half unit each)
- Dolg is still out of touch and Young in good touch

Souza @2 and 2-1 @4.5 (half unit each)
- Maurer getting too much credit for beating Robredo who is injured/out of form
- Going to keep going with Souza playing well and at home

Cuevas set 1 @4.5 and Cuevas to win 1st set but lose match @8 (half unit each)
- Nadal has shown he can come out a bit tight early in matches
- Cuevas possibly in career best form backing up from last year

Berankis @1.9 and to win 2-1 @4.33 (half unit each)
- He plays best indoors and has shown he can beat and compete against ATL level players on this surface
- Marchenko playing well lately but he is a challenger level player

Pending:
Basic @2
Lu @2.1
Maia +5.5 @2.1


Possibly a few too many plays again but I like them personally even though I don't play them.

[SirtySree]

Lu fell apart after a great start.
Young took care of business but didnt do it in straight sets.
Souza was in full control and then blew it after Maurer took an injury timeout.
Berankis won easy. Not sure why I said 2-1 when I knew Berankis is a class above Marchenko.
Basic won a relatively tight match. Knew it may come down to tiebreaks as explained in early post.
Maia so close to winning but ended up pulling out injured. Would have covered easily.
Cuevas played well but once Nadal won that 2nd set, I felt it was over for Cuevas.

+$637

[SirtySree]

Young @2.37 and 2-1 @5
- Young won last week in a tight match against Tomic
- Young in career best form

Stakhovsky @3 and 2-1 @6
- Stakhovsky playing really well at the moment and Simon not looking as sharp this week

Djere @3.4 and 2-0 @5.5
- Djere is more suited to clay but has a good serve to help him on hard court
- Melzer out of touch at the moment

Qiang Wang @2.1 and 2-0 @3.25
- Wang will upset quite a few player this year in my opinion. Very underrated player.

[SirtySree]

I am going to start posting my favourites down a set plays in here from now and keep a separate tally for it. These value youngsters don't play often enough for me to keep this thread going so might as well add something else to this thread well I'm at it.

[SCI]

Good stuff man. Keep it coming. I enjoy your insights.

[SirtySree]

Kondo @2.37 down a set.

Not a big fan of betting qualifiers though so just 1 unit.

[SirtySree]

Pecotic down a set and up 3-2 @3. Waited cause wanted to see how he comes out after a bad set. Got broken straight away but broke back now and think he's finally playing properly hopefully.

[SirtySree]

Kondo wins last two set 7-5 6-2. Very lucky here as Kondo was down 5-3 on serve and faced two match points. He managed to hold and then break after not getting a break point the whole match, and then he held and broke again to take the set 7-5. The last set was much easier and I guess Kondo woke up when he was facing defeat which I have seen happen quite often before but still very lucky to take the win here.

[SirtySree]

Pecotic loses last 4/5 games in a row straight after I placed the bet. One of the most annoying things that can happen in live betting ffs.

From now on, I will just make update of results in bunches rather than 1 at a time just so I dont fill up a whole bunch of pages on here.

Also btw, Qiang Wang is destroying Beck at the moment.

[SirtySree]

Vladimir Ivanov @3 down a set.

[SirtySree]

Jovanovski @3.4

[SirtySree]

Darcis @2.6

[SirtySree]

Seguel @3.5

[Jerimjob]

Young @2.37 and 2-1 @5
- Young won last week in a tight match against Tomic
- Young in career best form

Stakhovsky @3 and 2-1 @6
- Stakhovsky playing really well at the moment and Simon not looking as sharp this week

Djere @3.4 and 2-0 @5.5
- Djere is more suited to clay but has a good serve to help him on hard court
- Melzer out of touch at the moment

Qiang Wang @2.1 and 2-0 @3.25
- Wang will upset quite a few player this year in my opinion. Very underrated player.

Great picks dude. Loving the thread. Providing some nice insight on players I know little about.
Tailed you on these and made good coin Cheers

[fitguy67]

^^this^^

[SirtySree]

Not a fan of playing favourites down a set for qualifying and semi/finals. 1st round matches is where the strategy cleans up so will likely have quite a few plays next two days. 2nd round is usually okay as well but can have a few more upsets. This is why I didn't have many plays for it yesterday.

-$63 (favourites down a set)
+$1043 (pre-game)

Almost cleaned up in pre-game bets yesterday except Stakhovsky.
- Young got the job done after going down a set and was a repeat of the same result as last week.
- Stakhovsky was dominating through 1 and a half sets before Simon woke up and took control. Simon didn't look good all tournament so was worth the play as he was the same here until he realised he was going to lose.
- Melzer is possibly the worse top 100 player at the moment. Djere started the match off terribly double faulting countless times but once that stopped, he dominated the next two sets. This kid could be a big threat soon, especially on clay even though he plays on hard court in this match.
- Wang almost double bagels Beck. Will continue to go with Wang as as mentioned, I believe she is very underrated and will be a money maker this year.
- Ivanov won easy aftr going down a set. Almost broke in every service game.
- Jovanovski was a frustrating loss. She woke up when down 5-1 to come back to 5-4 and almost broke to get back to even but it was far too late to make a comeback.
- Darcis was holding to love and 15 in sets 2 and 3 but managed to get broken before the tiebreak in the 3rd which sucked
- Seguel couldnt hold and was just terrible

Will make my daily pre-game post soon.

[SirtySree]

kondo @3.25 down a set again

[SirtySree]

Not many plays today as too many finals. Might have some more for qualifiers once lines are up.

Simon @2.5 and 2-1 @5
- Simon after playing sloppy all tournament has found his game again and matches up well with Monfils
- Monfils playing well too but I think the power of Simon's ground shots are going to cause Monfils to play impatiently and erractically

Qiang Wang 2-1 @3.75
- Not happy with the odds only being $1.72 but I will take a shot at Wang to win 2-1 instead of the ML

Bucsa @4
- 17 yr old in here first final. Worth a punt at these odds but she is still the underdog to win.

[SirtySree]

Kondo wins and is now playing his 3rd game in 24 hours because it's qualifiers.

Adding this play for later.

Corrie @2.5 and 2-1 @5
- Corrie lost to Texiera last week but was due to a bad start. Thinking he will come out more focused this time.

Dustov/Basic tiebreak
- got no price on this but if it becomes available in play, il likely make a play
- both players especially dustov has been near unbreakable in this extremely fast surface. players hav been hitting winners 1 meter to either side of where the player is standing.

[SirtySree]

Medvedev @3.25 down a set

[SirtySree]

Klaffner @3.25 down a set

[SirtySree]

Sonego @2 down a set and 1-0 2nd set up break after getting bagelled.

[SirtySree]

Sonego goes from getting bagelled to bagelling his opponent. If anyone is unaware of this guy, he is a 'known' match fixer. He had a match late last year where he opened at like $4 and by game time he was at $1.25. The opponent he is versing right now is terrible and there is no way he should be getting bagelled. Sonego last match won 90% on 1st serve and almost broke Lootsma countless times, whereas he won under 35% today and had no aces.

I also sprinkled some money on 6-0 and 6-1 in 2nd and 3rd sets but only $10 on each and $100 on match.

Currently Sonego has won 14 points in a row. 3 games to love with 2 breaks.

EDIT: make that 18 points in a row. Just held to love.

[SirtySree]

Cashed out of this personally. Sonego is now proceeding to re-throwing the match.

EDIT: Sonego decided to let his opponent break to love but after that Sonego goes and win the next 16/18 points to win the match.

[SirtySree]

schiavone @3

[SirtySree]

bosio @5

[SirtySree]

+$687 (favourites down a set)

- Kondo pulls off another comeback win for me
- Medvedev wins although it was quite a struggle
- Klaffner a shouldn't have taken. She has been terrible in the last year but after a good last tournament, thought she was turning back the clock
- Sonego wins the suspicious match as explained
- Schiavone was a disappointment. Thought she had a great chance to win here.
- Bosio made it into a good day. Getting bagelled in the 1st set and down an early break in the 2nd, she finally woke up and won 7 games in a row straight after

+$1018 (pre-game)

- Simon hangs in there and manages to take both the ML and 2-1
- Wang couldn't hold and despite being underrated, was surprisingly priced way too low against Flipkens who isn't that bad
- Bucsa becames the fav after going up 3-0 but gave the break back after. Was up 5-4 but then collapsed and lost 9 games in a row
- Corrie just couldn't pull off the win. Freaky thing was the scoring of the last surface game was exactly the same sequence as when Darcis lost yesterday for me

[SirtySree]

Fabrice Martin @2.75 and 2-1 @6

Couacaud @2.2 and 2-0 @3.5
- this surface is slower than the one Basic just made the final in
- im also taking this because Basic has shown numerous times that he doesnt come out of finals well
- couacaud is better than basic so surprised at the line

Ramanathan @3 and 2-0 @5

[SirtySree]

Missed out on fading Bedene earlier. Made the above post a couple minutes after the game just began so didn't want to add it but Krajicek has been playing well and Bedene getting overrated after that Chennai tournament.

Adding these:

Prashanth @3.75 and 2-1 @7.5
- Duckworth has been terrible since Federer destroyed his confidence
- Prashanth has had some impressive wins here in India and could see him doing it again

Monteiro @2.75 and 2-1 @6
- Monterio playing some impressive tennis at the moment and Bagnis is a very up and down player throughout a match. Hoping he has two downs and 1 up during this match.

[SirtySree]

Martincova @3.85 down a set