Estrella withdrew and Stouff @3.4 vs Novak.
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Stouff dominates the 1st set against Novak. Pushing Novak in every service game and unlucky to only get 1 break as Novak got bailed out of a few break points with aces. Stouff had one bad service game to give the break back otherwise didn't get troubled on serve much.
Stouff takes the 1st set in a tiebreak.Comment -
Stouff loses the 2nd set. Reasonable close but Novak having more chances. Earlier break by Novak in the 3rd so looks like it could be over.
Stouff is definitely a player to keep an eye on though. Much better player than that of 3-4 years ago.
EDIT: Stouff fighting back but getting aced every time he has a break point.Last edited by SirtySree; 02-11-15, 06:43 AM.Comment -
De Vroome is the first WTA player whose style of play I actual like. She is also the first woman to join my list of future stars.
Muller was unbreakable as I expected but Dimi's terrible start gifted Muller the match.
Oprandi took the 2nd set but then got bagelled in the 3rd. Again typical WTA.
Will find some more games I like later.Comment -
Schiavone @3.75 against Kerber. Kerber coming off Fed Cup action and Schiavone playing well coming through qualifiers. Schiavone should only be a small dog around $2.2 so bit of value here and the spread could be good.
Barthel @3.5 against Bouchard. Fading Bouchard in smaller tournaments and Barthel has the unpredictability factor to cause an upset.
Doi @2 against Puig. Doi in great form at the moment. Surprised she is the dog here.
Pecotic @2.1 against Trusendi. Trusendi is a clay court, Pecotic shouldn't have much trouble taking him here.
Fett @1.9 against Hozumi. Fett was a terrible player early last year but suddenly started beating everyone out of no where. Only a bit of value here though.Comment -
Fett dominated 1st set and was going same way in the 2nd until she gave the break broke and lost a string of games. Repeated that again in the 3rd when up an early break then was down 5-2 before losing in a tiebreak.
Odds going down on Schiavone and Doi.
Other matches I see are:
- GGL could upset Wawrinka as Wawrinka is always vulnerable outside slams like Bouchard. Odds gone down quite a bit though so not much value.
- Sofya Zhuk is @2. Seems like all value is now gone with her unfortunately. Still fair odds but just nothing to get excited about.Comment -
Whats up with odds on Foggy.Comment -
Fognini is a strange one. I personally think there's decent value on Fognini to win the whole tournament but wouldn't bet on individual matches.
Reason being Fognini always tends to have a terrible hard court season but is one of the best clay courters once clay season comes around. People assume he is out of form hence the odds and hence why I wouldn't bother with betting on just the individual match. If Fognini is in fact not out of form and is just crap on hard courts like he always has been, then he could easily run through this field as it is not a particularly strong one so there's value on him winning the whole thing.Comment -
a good way to play pizza-face (against Bouchard) is +1.5sets@$2.04...
same for GGL (against Wawrinka) as +1.5s@$2.11Last edited by fitguy67; 02-12-15, 03:09 AM.Comment -
Pecotic with the easy straight set win. Broken in 1st game and down 3-1 but won next 11/15 games.Comment -
Think De bakker can win this tourney.Indoor plays to his serve greatly. Dont think he has been broken yet.Comment -
Should have went with my first mind, Foggy serious as I thought he should be.Comment -
Thank God for in play.Comment -
Schiavone takes Kerber with ease. Similar to how Gajdosova won with the same tactics.
Barthel took out Bouchard in 3.
Pecotic won and Fett lost as mentioned earlier.
Doi to play later.
Zhuk won a tight 3 setter. Guess you could say there's still a bit of value there.
GGL lost in 3 although didn't take him. Little/no value as was late on line as mentioned.
Will post more matches as usual soon.Comment -
Rodina @2.5 against Tomljanovic. Rodina should be the slight favourite here so a but of value here.
Will post more later. Most lines for matches in like 12 hours time aren't out yet in ITF/Challenger.Comment -
is is possible that girls want to lose and fly to dubai tournament?
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Some fascinating matches of tennis just occurred.
Arneodo/Balleret, possibly the best pairing in ITF at the moment winning 4 tournaments in a row this year already. Also won against Tojer/Tacau and Agut/Seppi at Monte Carlo last year. Only 1 loss in their career against Nestor/Zimonjic. Anyways, after losing the 1st set today 6-0 and winning only 3 points in the set, came back to win. Was down 4-1 in the match tiebreak and won the next 9 out of 10 points to win. These guys are money makers so watch out for them.
Johnson almost choked two sets against Brown when up 5-2 in both the 2nd and 3rd set. Ended up winning the 2nd set 7-5 and 3rd set in a tiebreak. Pissed off cause I cashed out early to break even and ended up losing out on $2.75 odds.Comment -
Just for interests sake, I did a quick calculation if I made every bet in this thread. This includes stuff I didn't play so like GGL/Wawrinka, Zhuk, and etc. I rarely play pre-game so this is just simply for interest sake and not what I've actually made/lost. Based of $100 unit, would be +$1141.Comment -
keep them going!Comment -
Had a look at the remaining matches and nothing really excites me. Not a fan of betting late rounds unless I've been watching a lot of the matches. Odds tend to become closer in late rounds too leading to less value.
Here's a few I see but to be honest, none are really overly worth playing except the two I had earlier.
- Rodina @2.5 as listed above
- Doi up to $2.1 as listed above
- Brands @2. Probably will be a tiebreak filled match. Brands unbreakable indoors against these types of opponents but he is a terrible returner himself.
- Olivo @2.5 against Baena. Olivo is a type of player that is very average and occasionally goes on a good run which he is on now.
Zhuk is @1.36 today. As mentioned, most value is gone with her already despite only playing like a dozen matches in her career.Comment -
Erakovic with the classic 5-2 down WTA comeback to win 7-5.Comment -
Rodina loses in straight sets. After she lost the tiebreak, it wasn't close from there.
Brands lost in straights as well but there was a tiebreak. Unfortunately couldn't get a line for the tiebreak as it's not on the new books I have to use.
Zhuk up to $1.5 now.Comment -
Zhuk wins another 3 setter.
Doi loses in straights. Thought the fact she misses her Dubai qualifier match, she would've put in a bigger effort. Some players seemingly didn't play their best to make it in time for Dubai. ie. Gajdosova losing both singles and doubles match to make her Dubai match the next day.
Olivo takes down Baena with yet another comeback win.
Arnedo/Balleret takes down the 1st seed with yet another comeback from a set down @3.75 odds after 1st set. Going to keep riding them down a set whenever possible.
Interesting matches for later:
- Simon @3.4. Spread will probably be better. If it wasnt for Berdych being the defending champ here, would take the ML price in a heartbeat. Still a bit of value there regardless with Simon in great form and having the H2H advantage.
- Couacaud @2.5 against Daniel. Pushed him in a tight 3 setter a few weeks back. Small value here but would only really consider it if he was at $3+.
- Podzus @2. Should be close to around $1.5 here.
- Novak @1.72. Very small value but against a decent opponent. Not really worth playing but just pointing it out cause it's Novak.
- Zhuk @4 against Sevastova. Not a play, simply stating the odds. Sevastova is an ATP level player currently playing ITF after missing last year.Comment -
Matsui loses to a scrub winning only 1 point on his opponents 1st serve. Probably the most lopsided loss I've seen this year in terms of the difference in talent between the two players.
Chung almost loses to Thompson in a match he dominated from start to end. Thompson either got broken or held to 40 in 3/4's of his service games. Chung also had more than twice as many break points, and was up 5-2 1st set and loses 5-7. Then serving for the match and multiple match points gets broken. Managed to break again though immediately and served out the match finally. Also if anyone was wondering, Chung was not tired or whatever at all. Near the end of the match Thompson was gassed and bending over after every point while Chung looked like he barely broke a sweat. Read a few posts on here from ppl thinking he would be. Kid moves as well as anyone on court and it was no different today. The tired angle hardly ever actually comes true but won't go into details about that as I've posted about it before already.Comment -
I like the Couacaud play. If I remember well from last season, conditions in Marseille are very fast. Majority of asian players thrive in those, but I don't think Daniel is one of those. I saw him at few challengers and he is not one of those short, quick guys, who mostly rely on their good court coverage and flat ball striking. He likes to put some top spin on his shots, from what I could see.
Enzo played him tight in Montpellier, and I like his chances here even more. Good luck!Comment -
^ Agreed. Couacaud is a future star and like him playing at home.
Also got a few more matches that I like.
- Olivo @2.37 against Elias. Like this one a lot as Elias isn't playing that well at the moment well Olivo is on fire.
- Collarini @2.62 against Arguello. These two always play tight 3 setters and Collarini is one of those players that never give up. Feel like the odds should be closer to 50/50Comment -
The roided Chech was in kill mode.Comment -
Like Renzo Olivo. Being a portuguese I can speak for my people who expected Elias to be a big thing but the man is so mentally fragile it makes me want to give him 1% of my brain. Let's hope he does that again todayComment -
Cant wait to see chung in a atp main draw.Kid could hang with those guys.Wonder if he will try and qualify for indian wells or miami.Comment -
Chung has a very similar game to a young Ymer and a young Coric. Both lacked power at the start of their career but was very good at rallying and had a superior backhand. They both struggled initially with the step up to Challenger/ATP level due to their lack of power but both in the last 6 months or so have improved their serving and overall power. Therefore, I can really see Chung struggling on the ATP tour due to a lot of the players hitting harder ground shots. Also like most Asian players, that power never comes hence why majority of them are all good challenger players but ranked outside the top 100 with the exception of Nishikori who actually has power to go with the good rallying. If Chung can develop some power in his serve and ground shots, he could be as good as Nishikori but I highly doubt he will and will prob end up like the rest of the Asians unfortunately.Comment
