SirtySree's Rookie Player Watch + Match Analysis

**SirtySree** · 02-06-15, 09:00 PM

Taberner has a match today against on of my favourite players, Cachin. Taberener is @5.5 which pretty good value. Cachin is out of form at the moment starting out the year so decent shot for Taberner even though Cachin is a far better player at the moment. I might take a punt at Taberner to take the 1st set or the spread once it becomes available.

**SirtySree** · 02-06-15, 09:05 PM

Also my thoughts on one of my favourite players in a final today.

Alex Bolt is playing Hyeon Chung in the Burnie final later today. Bolt was injured in his semifinal singles match despite winning and looked average in his doubles match that he lost.

Chung is a good returner and can keep the ball on the court and rally well. Bolt does not do well against players like these and the only way I see him winning today is if he keeps rallies under 3-4 shots per point and comes to the net at every opportunity.

Bolt is @2.62 and Chung @1.44 on bet365 so I don't really see much value here. Bolt's playing style means he could always pull an upset or get upsetted so whenever he is the dog, there's always a wee bit of value if you feel like taking a gamble.

**SirtySree** · 02-07-15, 03:13 AM

Bolt loses in straight sets. He only managed to win under 30% of his 2nd serves as expected. Not sure why he didn't just throw down faster 2nd serves as he wasn't going to out rally Chung.

Bolt's backhand is still as terrible as ever and looks like it will never get better as mentioned in my previous Ymer thread. One thing I noticed is that he has added a backhand slice but it goes into the net half the time so don't see why he bothers with that. I personally think a one-handed backhand would work for him but doubt he will change it in this point of his career.

**SirtySree** · 02-07-15, 04:02 AM

Looks like some ppl are slowing noticing Taberner. Down from 5.5 to 4 on bet365 and as low as 3.75 on others.

**Honeybadger44** · 02-07-15, 04:17 AM

Some valuable information in this thread. Thanks, SirtySree!

**SirtySree** · 02-07-15, 08:13 PM

A few interesting matches overnight/today.

- Cachin's form is back. Took down Taberner and then Reissig easily.
- Mmoh, future of the US takes down Kutrovsky. Will add him to the list above.

Updated first post with a few new players I recall. Sofya Zhuk as well as Mmoh, although the later is a bit of a stretch as he's already quite noticed.

**juanquintero** · 02-07-15, 08:27 PM

thanks for this sir

**juanquintero** · 02-07-15, 08:43 PM

You think Mmoh covers spread vs Hanescu?

**SirtySree** · 02-07-15, 08:46 PM

Originally posted by juanquintero

You think Mmoh covers spread vs Hanescu?

What does the odds and spread look like? Can't find them out anywhere yet.

**SirtySree** · 02-07-15, 08:58 PM

Got a few interesting matches later today.

Dennis Novak @2.62 against Pospisil. Pospisil will struggle to break Novak. The kid held to love every game except for 3 games where he held to 15 against Travaglia.

Thiem @2.5 is worth a punt. He and Gulbis train together so know each others game well. Gulbis use to always apparently beat Thiem quite easily but now Thiem is the one beating Gulbis regularly. Also Gulbis is still way out of form so is worth fading.

Elias Ymer is through to 2nd round of qualifiers against De Bakker. Hoping Ymer wins here so can see him in the main draw but I'm not that familiar with De Bakker's game to comment much here.

**SirtySree** · 02-08-15, 05:38 AM

Tempting to include Dennis Novak in the list but he's 21 and has been playing for a while. Dominates ITF level and only occasionally plays Challenger events for some reason. Tends to be the underdog in a lot of his matches as well despite winning a lot.

22 out of 24 people on sofascore had Pospisil winning. Novak ended up winning from a set down taking it in a tiebreak in the 3rd set.

**juanquintero** · 02-08-15, 08:11 AM

Originally posted by SirtySree

What does the odds and spread look like? Can't find them out anywhere yet.

@3.58, spread at 4 games

**SirtySree** · 02-08-15, 08:54 AM

Originally posted by juanquintero

@3.58, spread at 4 games

Decent value but not expecting a win. +4.5 should cover though if Mmoh serves first.

**SirtySree** · 02-08-15, 06:29 PM

Mmoh so close to making the upset. Covered the spread with ease and fell just short of the ML.
Ymer got destroyed by De Bakker after getting the early break unfortunately.

Will try find some interesting matches for later today.

**juanquintero** · 02-08-15, 07:00 PM

Ended up not playing the spread, but nice call bro! keep the coming, I like this topic

**SirtySree** · 02-08-15, 07:11 PM

Is there like a time limit to edit posts? I can't edit the 1st post so going to have to add new players into new posts.

Here's a name I forgot to add to the list earlier. Named him as the future of France along with Couacaud in another thread.

Corentin Moutet
- 15 yr old from France
- Limited number of matches played so far. Needs to get through qualifying to play any events
- Won against Jose Hernandez, a top 300 player and good clay courter

**SirtySree** · 02-08-15, 07:22 PM

Interesting matches for later today and some tomorrow.

Finn Tearney @3 against Statham. Two New Zealander's going head to head. Both know each others game well and Tearney has emerged out of no where so far this year taking down some big sculpts in the last week. Worth a punt at that price.

Ze Zhang @2.5 against Bolt. Bolt coming out of a final with injury issues. Also hates versing Asians as they all tend to be good returners and rally well.

Tamarine Tanasugarn @3 against Doi. Playing at home and a pretty good player. Last loss was against Doi though just a few weeks back but that was her first match of the year.

**SirtySree** · 02-09-15, 04:55 AM

For anyone interested in seeing an interesting player, check out Vincent Stouff.

A 28 year old from France that stopped playing in 2011 and had a terrible record of 7 wins and 32 losses, and came back this year. Played one tournament so far and made it through qualifiers before losing to Teixeira in the quarterfinals. Took down Kevin King, Rudy Coco, and Bonzi who are all relatively good players.

Currently playing in qualifiers of another ITF tournament at the moment and has made it to the main draw I think.

Check him out if anyone is interested but not including him in the list due to the fact bookies/bettors have caught on already and his odds are actually surprisingly really low. If anyone has any more details about this guy and why his odds are low despite his record, let me know.

Banned

http://www.tennislive.net/atp/vincent-stouff/

**fitguy67** · 02-09-15, 05:22 AM

great stuff, Sirty...keep it comin'...appreciate your broad-spectrum, "under the radar" approach

i just dutched in a "Fogs OR Delbo" Brazil at +427.5 (Delbo+2040,pinnacle/Fogs+600,5dimes) based on your post at EP's thread

also took each of the 3 you mention in post#18 to win a unit

**SirtySree** · 02-09-15, 06:10 PM

Gulbis as expected couldn't fit a forehand. The guy started out his career with the issue and fixed it early last year to rise to just outside the top 10 but his forehand is back to where it started. He can't fit a forehand when there's no pace on the ball. He missed overhead smashes and forehand winners to lobbed returns half way up the court.

For my 3 bets above, all the odds have gone down.
Tearney is now @2.25, Zhang @2, and Tanasugarn @2.75

**SirtySree** · 02-09-15, 09:27 PM

Zhang with straight set win.
Tearney blew a 5-3 lead in 1st set to lose 5-7 and the 1 break in the 2nd set was enough to lose a otherwise close 2nd set.

Sofya Zhuk has a match later today @1.5. Surprisingly poorly price. Wouldn't be surprised if she actually loses here as her opponent is a pretty good one.

Apart from that, nothing really stands out for the rest of the day.

**SirtySree** · 02-09-15, 11:59 PM

There actually is another interesting one. Dennis Novak vs Stouff. Novak tends to backup final appearances with another final or 1st/2nd round knockout much like most players. Can't find the odds on the match though.

**leetreaper** · 02-10-15, 12:14 AM

Originally posted by SirtySree

There actually is another interesting one. Dennis Novak vs Stouff. Novak tends to backup final appearances with another final or 1st/2nd round knockout much like most players. Can't find the odds on the match though.

The odds will be astronomical there.

**SirtySree** · 02-10-15, 12:22 AM

Originally posted by leetreaper

The odds will be astronomical there.

Na, as mentioned odds are always low on Stouff. Only like 2.75 against King and I think favourite against Coco. Weird as I don't know the background behind Stouff and why the odds are like that. Stouff will probably end up being favourite here.

**leetreaper** · 02-10-15, 01:08 AM

Originally posted by SirtySree

Na, as mentioned odds are always low on Stouff. Only like 2.75 against King and I think favourite against Coco. Weird as I don't know the background behind Stouff and why the odds are like that. Stouff will probably end up being favourite here.

You're way off here imho, I give Novak at least 90% win here.

**SirtySree** · 02-10-15, 02:30 AM

Originally posted by leetreaper

You're way off here imho, I give Novak at least 90% win here.

I was not picking a winner here, was simply stating what the odds would be based of Stouff's recent matches. I have no clue who or what Stouff's game is like so can't give any insight on the match.

Also still looking for an explanation or more details about this Stouff guy. Why was his odds so small against everyone despite that horrid record of his?

**SirtySree** · 02-10-15, 02:41 AM

Such a bizarre match between Saville and Whittington earlier today. Both are decent servers yet both barely held in the match.

Saville up 5-1 1st set, loses 5-7. Whittington up 4-1 in the 2nd, loses 4-6, and then gets bagelled in the 3rd.

**SirtySree** · 02-10-15, 02:51 AM

Looking at a few other matches.

Why the heck is Jaziri @3 against Harrision? Should be much closer to evens with maybe slight favourite to Harrison being at home.
Witten @2.25 looks good to me.
Also Zhuk's odds are going up slowing as expected. Might need to remove her from the list if books are going to list her this much of a favourite for no reason.

**SirtySree** · 02-10-15, 04:45 AM

Tanasugarn broken serving for the set after holding in every game. Knew she would crumble after that. Such a typical WTA thing to do. Barely won a single point after that.

**SirtySree** · 02-10-15, 04:59 AM

Absolutely disgusting. Goes from serving for the set to lost the next 37 points out of 45. 3 of which came in the last game when she was already done.

**SirtySree** · 02-10-15, 04:53 PM

Jaziri loses in two tiebreaks. Harrison should have won that 1st set easier while Jaziri should have won that 2nd. In the end, pretty much Harrison should have only been a small fav.
Witten took care of business easy.
Zhuk won two close sets.

Will update later if I see anything. The Stouff game is later today I believe so I'll try find odds on that.

**SirtySree** · 02-10-15, 05:01 PM

Found a few already.

Hernandez @2.62 from $9 against Estrella. Estrella coming of a finals win and the public sees something here. I think Estrella might have withdrawn though but we will see.
Muller @3.5 against Dimi. See multiple tiebreaks as a possibility and tiebreaks favour the big servers.
Bolleli @5 against Raonic. In great form and good value there although I would probably go with the spread rather than the ML.
De Vroome @3.75 against Pironkova. Probably won't win but putting her name here as she is a talent and could be a star to watch in the future. Similar game to Pliskova but smaller serve and moves better.
Oprandi @3.25. Seems to be over the injuries she had.

**SCI** · 02-10-15, 05:08 PM

The Americans coming up big thus far. Harrison looks to be in top 100 form right now. I'm surprised how Harrison just let Jaziri self destruct in the end. Jaziri came up lame on big points. He missed some gimmees after setting up the point in his favor.

It seems both of these players don't have a clear plan out there, just hitting the ball. Probably explains why they are both widly inconsistent.

**leetreaper** · 02-10-15, 05:31 PM

Originally posted by SirtySree

Found a few already.

Hernandez @2.62 from $9 against Estrella. Estrella coming of a finals win and the public sees something here. I think Estrella might have withdrawn though but we will see.
Muller @3.5 against Dimi. See multiple tiebreaks as a possibility and tiebreaks favour the big servers.
Bolleli @5 against Raonic. In great form and good value there although I would probably go with the spread rather than the ML.
De Vroome @3.75 against Pironkova. Probably won't win but putting her name here as she is a talent and could be a star to watch in the future. Similar game to Pliskova but smaller serve and moves better.
Oprandi @3.25. Seems to be over the injuries she had.

Like Vroome.