SirtySree's Rookie Player Watch + Match Analysis

[SirtySree]

+$1102

Got some potential fades for tomorrow.

Traver @3 against Gulbis
- gulbis is horrid at the moment. not much needed to be said here
- would also think 2-0 is a good bet
- this surface is going to giv gulbis nightmares and if niculescu was to play gulbis, she would win

Melzer @3 against Isner
- surprise surprise i am off the melzer fade train
- melzer is a good returner and has the edge over isner H2H
- isner's current form is good serve, nothing else

Koukalova @5.5 against Keys
- keys hasn't played in a while and was injured i believe
- koukalova looked to be back close to her old form at the back end of her last match
- worth a punt at the high odds but would prefer to take Koukalova 1st set only

Boltz @2.2 vs Cunha
- Cunha has a very good record but he beats up on terrible players
- boltz is a big step u for cunha and i would think Boltz wins 2-0

EDIT:

Add Hradecka @4.5 vs Bouchard. It's a no-brainer fading bouchard in the 1st round of every non-slam tournament

[fitguy67]

zhang z -500ish fave over Marcora was another solid play that didn't pan out today...like anything else there's a statistical ebb and flow of usually-reliable (zhang's been 76%=25/33) faves who lose first sets either winning OR losing the match...we seem to be on a very cold spell last few days

33, if you'd seen it...think you would have played Zhang Z after losing that first set vs. Marcora (GZ chall)

[SirtySree]

zhang z -500ish fave over Marcora was another solid play that didn't pan out today...like anything else there's a statistical ebb and flow of usually-reliable (zhang's been 76%=25/33) faves who lose first sets either winning OR losing the match...we seem to be on a very cold spell last few days

33, if you'd seen it...think you would have played Zhang Z after losing that first set vs. Marcora (GZ chall)

I saw it but decided to pass on it. Main reason for starters was that odds were too low after the 1st set and secondly, I try not to bet against players playing above their usual abilities during a tournament. Same reason why I passed on Nys above when Kenz asked and he lost too.

[kenz]

I think seeds 1 and 2 are more reliable for comebacks no matter the odds then other seeds for challenger and itf, if they are playing nonseeds

[SirtySree]

joncour @3.5

EDIT: Missed every single break point in the match while his opponent took almost all his. Turned a 50/50 match into a lopsided scoreline zzz.

[SirtySree]

Perez Sans @3.25

[SirtySree]

Ramialison @2.75. 7-1 in finals with the one lost in a 3rd set tiebreak while her opponent has never won one.

[Coolsmarti]

Zemlja is also throwing his match away ...

[SirtySree]

Joncour @3.75 another unit. Somehow came back from 5-1

[Coolsmarti]

Should have taken Zemlja at @3.25 ...

[SirtySree]

Should have taken Zemlja at @3.25 ...

Was very tempted. Unfortunately I rarely ever take those type of bets where a player is down in the final set.

[SirtySree]

So fking sick of this crap. One week every month, there seems to just be utter bs where everything out of the normal happens.

Joncour, Bogdan, and De Greef all in a position where 90% of the time it will be a winner and they all lose. That's over $2000 there from just 3 plays where even just 1 of them losing would be extremely unlucky but somehow all 3 found a way to defy the odds.

[SirtySree]

+$702

Horror week but still went over breakeven. Cant get too negative about that despite missing some big bets. New round of matches to look forward to and bad runs are usually followed by good runs which I am hoping for.

[beefcake]

What the hell.happened to zemlja?..I think he got hurtand is trying to come back?..A few years back he was a good player..was good on grass and had an upset win or two as well.

[SirtySree]

^ ya think he was injured

gonzalez @4

[kenz]

Clezar looks very dominant on this fast surface. Gonzalez's chances are 5 to 10% IMO

[SirtySree]

stewart @2.2

[SirtySree]

Didn't end up being able to post my last few plays but heres one.

Chung @3.25

[SirtySree]

You cant make this shit up. Another fking horrid loss to add to Petkovic that I had earlier.

Going up to over half a dozen matches now in the last 2 days where my player wins the 2nd set and goes up a break in the 3rd but lose the match. This shit just doesn't happen 90% of the time for the favourite. FML...

Instead of being up $3000-$4000 in the last week, I now fall below breakeven.

[SirtySree]

+$622

Will start again in a few hours time when some 1st round matches begin. Going to start minimizing the number of plays as it got a bit out of hand lately.

Hopefully the bad week for the month is out of the way and can start making money again instead of breaking even for all the time spent.

[Coolsmarti]

Agreed, a lot of strange losses lately ...

[SirtySree]

^ indeed. favourites winning the 2nd set then going up a break in the 3rd set early usually results in the underdog folding but that was not the case in many matches last week

Aubone @3 down a set (posting after he held in 1st game of 2nd set cause site hav loading issue again)

[SirtySree]

Sibille @3

[SirtySree]

+$422

Been busy last couple of days as well as having issues loading the site during the usual time. Not sure if that's just an issue with me or everyone but wasn't keen on refreshing the page 5 times for it to load once.

Had a couple of plays and its good to say that things are back to normal. None of that big favourite winning the 2nd set then dropping the 3rd set. Also had some luck on my side with Monticone coming back from a set and 5-0 down to win as well as Becker winning a tiebreak when down 5-3 in it.

Will try resume posting plays here in a few hours time but the site issues usually arise at that time so it will be dependent on that.

[SirtySree]

Still experiencing the problem around this time. I won't be posting picks at this time until it's fixed as I am not wanting to refresh each page multiple times just to get it to load. I will post plays at other times but this time period is when most of the matches are being played so there will not be many posted plays.

[SirtySree]

Yesterday was one of those days that only comes once a month. Beautiful day loaded with favourites coming back from a set down. I've been busy most of the week including yesterday so missed out on a lot of them but still hit over a handful for a tidy $1000 profit. If I had gotten majority of them, would have been well over $2500.

I am still experiencing issues with the site at that usual time that the problems occur so I've only been checking SBR a few times a day meaning I won't be posting my picks still until the issue goes away.

[SirtySree]

The site seems to be loading much better in the past couple of days so I will try get this going again if I can remember/be bothered.

For starters, just some interesting matches I see later today/tomorrow.

Berdych -whatever against Chung.
- Chung hasn't really had to verse any power hitters so far in his career. Mentioned earlier on, he will struggle with the step up to ATP level.
- Chung strives on just keeping the ball in play and tiring out his opponents. This won't work against Berdych who will have a field day hitting winners against Chung's style of play.
- 4 games is what I think would be a great achievement for Chung. Expecting Berdych to possibly bagel Chung in the 1st set and then sit back in the 2nd set a bit like he tends to do.

Golubev 2-0 @3.75 against Youzhny
- the way Youzhny is playing at the moment, a 2-0 fade is almost on the card against any ATP level player all the time

Sieber @3.25 against Pace
- Sieber was the favourite against Pace last week but lost 6-3 6-0 losing last 11 games in a row
- Sieber is the better player and have no clue what happened to him in their previous match a week ago

[SirtySree]

Fortuna @3.75 down a set. Just 1 unit and not part of my usually fav down a set as he was the underdog.

Fortuna won his last two matches down a set @29 and @7. I hit both @8 and @3.5 respectively midway through the 2nd set in both matches so I am trying my luck with him yet again. Solid player that just went through a rough patch but seems to be bouncing back.

[SirtySree]

Balleret @4 and @3.65 - 1 unit on each

[SirtySree]

Very shitty month continues. Down a couple more units than the thread suggests so bout $500 down this month. On sofasocre, 17 ppl picked Balleret and none on Nava. Was a fairly lopsided matchup going in.

[SirtySree]

Batalla @3.75 x2

[Hardcoar]

À la bataille!

[SirtySree]

À la bataille!

[SirtySree]

+$22

Won a little bit back after but still down a couple of units on the month. Clay season starting next month will be interesting. I haven't really tried this method during clay season yet as it's still relatively new for me. I am thinking it won't make a difference or possibly be slightly better given that more breaks are likely to happen resulting in the better player winning more often than not, whereas hard courts can be just 1 break is enough to win resulting in more upsets. Also thinking there will be more lopsided scorelines with more break chances so the odds could potentially be better. Will be interesting to see how things go in the next few months.

[SirtySree]

Good end to March. Now up roughly $500 on the month but it fluctuates a lot due to the nature of my betting style.

Does anyone actually want me to carry on posting my plays though? Since I haven't really been bothered posting them here in the past week or so. If there is some interest, I don't mind posting them but otherwise I'll just let the thread sink as it doesn't really serve any purpose for me.